Tighter budgets mean fewer raises and promotions. But taking ‘your foot off the gas when it comes to compensation’ may backfire

According to Mercer’s March 2024 U.S. Compensation Planning survey, on average, employers raised compensation budgets by 3.3% for merit increases and 3.6% for total salary increases for non-unionized employees—both figures coming in lower than November projections of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

The firm’s analysis is based on data from more than 1,000 U.S. organizations across 15 industries, ranging from those with fewer than 500 employees to some with over 20,000. While some industries did see higher-than-average figures for merit increases budgets—the highest, transportation equipment, came in at 3.9%—others, such as health care services, were well below at 2.9%.

Potential increases keep trending downward, according to Michael Citron, principal, compensation and rewards consultant at Mercer. Companies also have been pulling back on promotions.

“Back in November, they said, ‘Okay, well, on average, we think we’re going to promote 9.3% of our employees,’” Citron explained. “And then when we ask again in March, they’re saying, ‘Okay, well, maybe it’s 8%.’”

The “why” for pulling back on promotions isn’t covered in Mercer’s report, but “what we’re hearing in conversations with our clients is just general economic uncertainty,” Citron told Fortune.

In the face of high interest rates, a report released on Thursday by the Commerce Department said U.S GDP decelerated in the January-to-March quarter to a 1.6% annual pace from 3.4% in the final three months of 2023. (But consumers, the main driver of economic growth, kept spending at a solid pace.)

It’s too soon to tell if this will have an effect on pay increase projections for 2025, Citron said, but even in the current economic climated, he offered this advice to executives: “Don’t completely think that you can take your foot off the gas when it comes to compensation.”

There’s still competition for talent, and some companies are starting to realize that, with off-cycle raises—additional compensation not directly tied to an annual review—rising 10% since in November. 

“What we’re hearing a lot from our clients is, ‘We actually need to make sure that our pay is market aligned,’” Citron said, adding that more companies are beginning to realize that “compensation is just one part of a bigger pie.” Attracting, retaining, and motivating employees also includes a broader total rewards strategy—benefits, career mobility, flexibility, and a sense of purpose.

“If they really listen to their employees and understand what the market looks like for those total rewards,” Citron added, “then they may be able to craft a strategy and figure out how to invest in different areas in a way that could, for them, actually be cost neutral.”

Have a good weekend.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

María Soledad Davila Calero curated the Leaderboard and Overheard sections of today’s newsletter.

Big deal

A total of 28 U.S. bank deals worth a combined $1.59 billion were announced in 2024 through April 15, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.

Q1 had 26 bank deals with an aggregate deal value of $1.08 billion. Over the same period in 2023, there were 20 bank deals worth a total $432.8 million.

Leaderboard

Some notable moves:

Darin Harper was named CFO at Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc., (Nasdaq: PLAY), an owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues, effective June 17. The company’s existing CFO, Michael Quartieri, will continue in the role until June 16. He previously announced his retirement. Harper was previously EVP and CFO for Main Event Entertainment, Inc. He also served as group CFO for Main Event's parent company, Ardent Leisure.

Vikram Luthar, CFO and SVP at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), who had been placed on administrative leave, has resigned from the company, officially ending his tenure on Sept. 30. Ismael Roig was named interim CFO in January, amid an investigation of accounting issues tied to ADM’s nutrition segment. ADM has initiated a formal selection process to identify the company’s next CFO.

Dawn Allen was named CFO at Haleon (NYSE: HNL), a consumer health care company and maker of Sensodyne. Allen will join Haleon on Oct. 28 and assume the role of CFO on Nov. 1. She will succeed Tobias Hestler as finance chief. Allen is currently the CFO at Tate & Lyle plc. Before that, she had a 25-year career at Mars Inc., where she was most recently global CFO and VP global transformation.

Colin Wittmer was promoted to CFO at the professional services and consulting firm PwC, effective July 1. A 30-year PwC veteran, Wittmer is currently PwC’s deals leader. He has assisted with hundreds of intricate domestic and global transactions, including acquisitions, divestitures, IPOs, and spin-offs.

Daniel Hopgood was named EVP and CFO at the precision technology manufacturer Nordson Corporation (Nasdaq: NDSN), effective May 20. Hopgood succeeds Joseph Kelley, who moved to the role of EVP and Industrial Precision Solutions segment leader. Before joining Nordson, Hopgood worked at Eaton Corp., where he served as SVP of finance, and most recently as controller and chief accounting officer.

Paul Todgham was named CFO at the hiring platform Greenhouse. Todgham has over 20 years of experience, most recently as CFO at Cognex Corp. He also spent six years at Levi Strauss & Company, where he held a range of senior leadership positions, including leading finance for the company's global supply chain, distribution, merchandising, planning, design, and marketing teams.

David Phillippswas named CFO at Liv Golf, a professional men’s golf tour. Previously, he was CFO at Equinox’s brands including Equinox, Equinox Hotels, Soul Cycle, and Blink Fitness. Phillipps also served as the SVP of finance at Endeavor, a talent representation organization, which includes the talent agency William Morris, IMG, and the UFC.

Cindy Yao was named CFO at HF Food Group (Nasdaq: HFFG), a food distributor for Asian Restaurants. Yao, who’s appointment starts on May 1, recently served as CFO and executive vice president for Markel Food Group. Prior to that, Yao served as vice president and corporate treasurer for Bausch + Lomb Corporation.

Going deeper

Here are a few Fortune weekend reads:

“Mark Zuckerberg warns of stock volatility as Meta bets billions more on AI investment ‘before we make much revenue’” by Alexei Oreskovic

“As Boeing burns through $3.9 billion in cash, it exposes a painful truth for investors: Right now, it can’t make planes fast enough to turn a profit” by Shawn Tully

“Shares of Microsoft-backed Rubrik jump as much as 25% on first trading day” by María Soledad Davila Calero

“SoulCycle cofounders launch a platform to improve your work relationships: ‘We don’t know our colleagues anymore’” by Alexa Mikhail 

Overheard

“The bar for committing a sophisticated fraud attack is getting lower year after year.”

— Alain Meier, head of identity at Plaid, told Fortune. The increased availability of AI is also helping criminals commit fraud, especially through liveness attacks, which is when bad actors attempt to trick the video portion of a verification process by impersonating someone else.