While the oddsmakers are giving the San Francisco 49ers a slight edge in this year’s Super Bowl, one of the most accurate predictors of the game disagrees.
EA’s Madden NFL football franchise regularly rules the video game sales charts, but it also has an uncanny track record when it comes to the Big Game. And this year, the game predicts, the Chiefs will emerge victorious, by a score of 30-28.
The Madden series has a 65% accuracy rate, having accurately predicted the winner of the Super Bowl for 13 of the past 20 years (including prognosticating the exact score in 2015). Patrick Mahomes, the game says, will be the third player ever to win back-to-back MVP honors.
(Keep in mind: Last year Madden thought the Eagles would walk away as the winners.)
This year’s prediction was a bit different than others. EA did not give a quarter-by-quarter breakdown or additional insight into how it arrived at the final score.
Madden is just a video game, though, right? Why should anyone care what it says? Well, first, there’s that track record. Beyond that, though, the game leans heavily into artificial intelligence during development, which could improve its predictive performance.
The NFL has been keeping statistics about games and players since 1920, but in 2014, it outfitted RFID tags onto the shoulder pads of every player in a program called Next Gen Stats, later adding them to referee uniforms, first-down markers, and the pylons at the edge of the end zone. Using those, the league was able to capture a treasure trove of more precise data, including player speed, field location, and movement patterns. Madden NFL 22, which debuted in 2021, deeply integrated that data, allowing it to make onscreen players more realistic than ever.
Want a little historical perspective before you decide whether to trust a video game as you place your bets? Here’s a look at the game’s complete track record.
Super Bowl LVII
Madden: Eagles 31, Chiefs 17
Actual score: Chiefs 38, Eagles 35
Super Bowl LVI
Madden: Bengals 24, Rams 21
Actual score: Rams 23, Bengals 20
Super Bowl LV
Madden: Chiefs 37, Buccaneers 27
Actual score: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9
Super Bowl LIV
Madden: Chiefs 35, 49ers 31
Actual score: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20
Super Bowl LIII
Madden: Rams 30, Patriots 27
Actual score: Patriots 13, Rams 3
Super Bowl LII
Madden: Patriots 24, Eagles 20
Actual score: Patriots 34, Eagles 28
Super Bowl LI
Madden: Patriots 27, Falcons 24
Actual score: Patriots 34, Falcons 28
Super Bowl 50
Madden: Panthers 24, Broncos 20
Actual score: Broncos 24, Panthers 10
Super Bowl XLIX
Madden: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
Actual score: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
Super Bowl XLVIII
Madden: Broncos 31, Seahawks 28
Actual score: Seahawks 43, Broncos 8
Super Bowl XLVII
Madden: Ravens 27, 49ers 24
Actual score: Ravens 34, 49ers 31
Super Bowl XLVI
Madden: Giants 27, Patriots 24
Actual score: Giants 21, Patriots 17
Super Bowl XLV
Madden: Steelers 24, Packers 20
Actual score: Packers 31, Steelers 25
Super Bowl XLIV
Madden: Saints 35, Colts 31
Actual score: Saints 31, Colts 17
Super Bowl XLIII
Madden: Steelers 28, Cardinals 24
Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Super Bowl XLII
Madden: Patriots 38, Giants 30
Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14
Super Bowl XLI
Madden: Colts 38, Bears 27
Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17
Super Bowl XL
Madden: Steelers 24, Seahawks 19
Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10
Super Bowl XXXIX
Madden: Patriots 47, Eagles 31
Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21
Super Bowl XXXVIII
Madden: Patriots 23, Panthers 20
Actual score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29