Predicting the stock market is tough. Predicting the state of the world 100 years in the future? That’s a lot tougher.
Paul Fairie, a researcher at the University of Calgary, has been doing deep dives into old, often very old, newspapers for an upcoming book looking at arguments that come up again and again, society’s need to blame its ills on pop culture and inanimate objects, and more. As part of that research, he posted some predictions found in newspapers from 1924 about the year 2024.
As you might imagine, they got a lot wrong—often hilariously. But the futurists of the Roaring ’20s did come fairly close on a few prognostications. Here’s a look at what they got kind of right and what they got very, very wrong.
The semi-right
Apartments and subways – One prediction foresaw apartment buildings that were 100 stories tall. “We’ll climb to a hundred stories in air. And we’ll burrow below to pay homeward fare,” the prediction reads. “Our city a hive, with a huge population, will swallow the farms of a fifth of the nation.”
Granted there aren’t many of those super-tall skyscrapers today, but more than 20 buildings around the world meet or exceed that height.
Home movies – “There is going to be a movie in every home,” one forecaster mentioned. “Trains, which will be traveling twice or three times as fast as they do now, will have film theaters on board. Families will make their albums in motion pictures.”
Watching a movie at home is easier than ever—especially after the streaming wars and the boost to in-home cinema from behavioral changes during the pandemic lockdown. And while we’re not on trains as much as planes when we travel these days, in-flight entertainment is often a good chance to catch up on releases you missed in the theater. As for those albums in motion pictures? Sounds a lot like TikTok and our camera rolls.
Cinematic realism – “Motion pictures 100 years from now will be so nearly like the living person or the existing object pictured that you will be unable, sitting in your orchestra seat, to determine whether they are pictures or the real thing,” wrote one futurist.
A quick glance at any well-done CGI-enhanced film proves they nailed that one.
The wrong
NYC’s population – The five boroughs have never been particularly suited for people looking for elbow room, but the prediction by real estate baron J. P. Day that the city would have a population of 30 million—and no transit problems? That was a bit overly optimistic. (NYC has a population of 8.5 million today.)
Jazz music will be considered classical – This prediction came when jazz was being demonized by some, so it was rather shocking at the time. While jazz and classical still aren’t seen on the same level, there are some classic jazz artists who will seemingly be listened to as long as some of the great composers.
Life expectancy – Sir H. Kingsley Wood boldly predicted in 1924 that by today, the average life expectancy would be “at least 100 years.” Sorry, Sir Wood, it stands at 71 today, which (to be fair) is still a notable improvement.
The very wrong
World peace via cinema – One clipping reads “In the year 2024, the most important single thing which the cinema will have helped in a large way to accomplish will be that of eliminating from the face of the civilized world all armed conflict.”
Um…yeah. About that…
Goodbye, diamond rings – One prediction claimed the diamond supply would be exhausted within 100 years. So what would suitors give their loves when asking them to spend the rest of their lives together? A synthetic gem made from sugar.
Child-flinging beds – Here’s one parents of teenagers might wish had actually come true, in part. Instead of alarm clocks, kids would be thrown out of bed (wearing their one-piece asbestos suit—okay, maybe we don’t want that part to be true) to ensure they get to school on time. That same prediction saw a school environment where teachers could send shocks to student seats, passing currents through them if they weren’t paying attention.
