AI optimists outnumber pessimists at Davos

The late Tony Hsieh, then CEO of Zappos, once explained to me his theory of ROI—not return on investment but “return on interactions.” I am reminded of that in Davos, where in a single stroll down the Promenade you may encounter the president of Poland, the CEO of JPMorgan, or a woman providing smartphones to female entrepreneurs in India. The conversations start at 7 a.m. and continue through 1 a.m. And somehow, after a few days of craziness, you get a sense of the zeitgeist of the moment.

So what is the business zeitgeist as 2024 begins? Well, there is no shortage of risks. Two wars raging, superpower tensions rising, higher interest rates biting, extreme weather, extreme polarization, extreme uncertainty—you name it. But what I found here was a surprising, if subdued, optimism about our ability to manage those risks and leverage technology to grow business and create a better world. A few examples:

“Geopolitical risks, technology risks, economic risks, social risks, labor market risks are all very much top of mind for CEOs. What’s striking about this moment is that the range of outcomes for all of these issues is so broad. And so for business leaders and for public sector leaders, needing to be prepared for this moment is very, very difficult. Any one of the issues could go to great extremes and cause big disruption. That, to me, is what is really different about the moment.”

​—John Doyle, CEO, Marsh McLennan

“I think there is a realization and an acceptance that the world is a complicated place. And all these issues that are kind of, in some ways, becoming cliche, are real. And companies need to accept that and start executing on how to confront, leverage, navigate that. And I think there’s an underlying optimism in the air around that…understanding, of course, that anything could happen at any given moment.”

​—Constantine Alexandrakis, CEO, Russell Reynolds

“It seems like people are optimistic. Not in a way that I would say is euphoric, but, you know, there is going to be $5 trillion spent on technology this year, so the investment in technology is really good….I think people are getting the hang of it… that if you always do what you always did, you’ll always get what you’ve always got. Because of gen AI, they are looking at the architectural things that have to happen so they can take advantage of it.” 

​—Bill McDermott, CEO, ServiceNow

AI was the subject of 90% of my conversations, focusing on the upsides—from transforming sales effectiveness to curing cancer—as well as downsides—from exposing private data to accelerating deadly warfare. But the optimists clearly outnumbered the pessimists. A show of hands at a dinner discussion I attended last night put the margin at roughly three to one. 

The ROI will be high again tonight, when Fortune assembles more than 80 global CEOs for our annual Davos dinner to discuss the risks and opportunities in the year ahead. I’ll report back tomorrow. 

Other news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

TOP NEWS

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

Microsoft gave its venture fund $275 million this year to invest in startups aligned with its mission by Rachyl Jones

Commentary: As elites gather in Davos, they can’t ignore that most high-net worth individuals like me want to pay more tax by Chuck Collins

DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman warns AI is a ‘fundamentally labor replacing’ tool over the long term by Will Daniel 

Etiquette classes are coming to more than 60% of companies in 2024—and it’s not just Gen Z that needs lessons in how to make eye contact by Orianna Rosa Royle

Almost half of employers are planning to give out raises, but what workers really want is better benefits by Paige McGlauflin

VinFast is turning its focus to its own backyard after the Vietnamese EV company fails to make a splash in the U.S. by Lionel Lim

This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.