Deloitte’s annual Holiday Retail Survey predicts consumer spending will top pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with the average shopper spending $1,652—a 14% increase over 2022’s totals.

Higher prices and fear of a recession aren’t dimming enthusiasm among consumers. Spending will be higher among all income groups, said Deloitte, though people are planning to give fewer gifts this year, averaging eight versus last year’s nine. Shoppers also plan to use gift cards more often as well, to keep costs in check.

“After several years of uncertainty, shoppers return to the familiar to make their holiday celebrations shine,” said Brian McCarthy, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP in a statement. “They plan to frequent their favorite retailers and focus their shopping during the traditional late fall period. With customers planning to shop fewer weeks, retailers have a shorter amount of time to gain consumers’ attention, highlighting the importance of the November promotional events this holiday season.”

Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be especially important for retailers this year as shoppers look to maximize their budget and seek out bargains. Some 66% plan to shop on the two biggest retail days, compared to just 49% last year. Nearly one-third of shoppers’ budgets will be spent in the last two weeks of November.

They’re not just in the giving mood, either. More consumers plan to spend on home decorations this year, with the number of non-gift purchases climbing to 25%.

Budgeting? That might be a problem, shoppers admit. Nearly three-quarters say they are tempted to buy themselves a gift while they’re out looking for others’. And just 57% said they are confident in their ability to stay within their budget, down from 63% last year.

This is the 36th annual holiday survey by Deloitte. This year’s spoke with 4,330 consumers, as well as 43 retail executives, to make its estimations.