Good morning.
Two of Fortune’s favorite alumni, Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera, have a new book out this week called The Big Fail, that examines how the U.S. badly bungled the COVID pandemic. Partisans will look to see where the authors come down on the great public health debates of the last four years: Lockdown or not; masks or no masks; vaccine or anti-vax. But partisans will be disappointed. McLean and Nocera are equal opportunity attack dogs. They have blistering criticism of Fauci and Trump, Cuomo and Abbott, Newsom and DeSantis, as well as the CDC, the teachers’ unions, The Business Roundtable, and just about everyone else. No one is spared. The only policy they find praiseworthy is Operation Warp Speed, which developed a COVID vaccine in record time. (For what it’s worth, I’d give more credit than they do to the economic policy makers who prevented a prolonged recession by stepping on the monetary and fiscal accelerators—even if they kept their foot on the gas for too long.)
So what’s the lesson? Here’s my takeaway: There’s little evidence that countries or communities with hard lockdowns and firm mask mandates did better than those without. There’s also little evidence that rich countries did better than poor, or authoritarian societies did better than democratic. In fact, the only variable that seems to explain COVID-fighting success is social trust. Societies with relatively high levels of trust—in each other, in their governments, in science, etc.—did better than those without.
Turning that conclusion into a prescription for the next pandemic, of course, is no simple thing. It’s hard to build trust at a time of tribal warfare, when both sides are determined to tear each other down. Positions become overstated, mistakes get exaggerated, and everyone ends up losing. As Nocera and McLean write early in their book:
“One can envisage a scenario where low levels of trust allow an epidemic to spread, and where the spread of the epidemic reduces trust in government still further, hindering the ability of the authorities to contain future epidemics and address other social problems.”
Welcome to the 21st Century. Healthy societies, like healthy economies, need healthy levels of trust to serve as a lubricant for their success. Without it, things go badly. And restoring trust once it’s been lost isn’t easy. But a bit of humility and some respect for each other’s positions might be a good place to start.
Also this morning, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav has made himself a villain in Hollywood and a hero on Wall Street. Which does he need more to succeed? Read Alicia Adamczyk and Maia Samuel’s deep dive for Fortune here.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Portugal visas
A rush of new digital nomads are flocking to Portugal to take advantage of tax breaks and other benefits before the government ends them next year. “Whenever you announce that a program is going to stop or it’s going to change, you trigger a huge amount of demand from people who are trying to get in before it changes,” said one advisor to high-net worth-individuals, criticizing the “amateurish” rollout from Prime Minister António Costa. Lisbon ended its investment visa scheme earlier this year, blaming expats for rising home prices. Fortune
Tapestry takeover
Joanne Crevoiserat became CEO of Tapestry, the fashion portfolio company that holds Coach and Kate Spade, amid leadership turnover following a poorly-managed purchase of Kate Spade. Now, Crevoiserat has to make sure Tapestry’s next acquisition—an $8.5 billion purchase of Capri Holdings, which owns Michael Kors and Versace, among other brands—doesn’t push her out of a job too. “I’d rather be a brand-builder and a talent-builder than a dealmaker,” she says. Fortune
No more Nvidia loopholes
Companies like Nvidia and Intel may soon find it more difficult to sell AI chips to China, with the Biden administration reportedly set to update its rules this week. Last year, Nvidia took advantage of a loophole to design a slightly less sophisticated version of its popular AI processor for the China market. Earlier this year, Nvidia warned that expanded rules on China could lead to a “permanent loss of opportunities” for the U.S. chip industry. Reuters
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
How big companies from EY to Johnson & Johnson are learning to master AI prompts by Ryan Gladwin
Dropbox’s CEO has a message for bosses who want workers to return to office: ‘They’re not resources to control’ by Jane Thier
Leaders need to know how to spot ‘transformation fatigue’ in jaded employees by Paige McGlauflin
Gen Z is cooking more and shopping less as they struggle to achieve financial success by Chloe Berger
Freakonomics author: ‘Objections to data science in K-12 education make no sense’ by Steven Levitt
Jamie Dimon warns the Israel-Hamas conflict may upend the economy: ‘This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades’ by Will Daniel
This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.
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