And today, with layoffs, budget cuts, and hiring freezes dominating headlines, the hallmarks of a global recession have certainly been ticked off for many of America’s biggest employers.

Indeed, a survey sent out by the World Economic Forum to chief economists in January found that two thirds of respondents believed a recession would happen in 2023—nearly 20% of them considered it “extremely likely”.

While many have pushed back their estimations on when the recession will hit, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development‘s (OECD) business confidence index has continued to fall since the start of 2022.

And it’s true, with businesses pessimistically tightening the purse strings as they prepare to weather an economic storm, a promotion and pay can be a hard sell to make.

But while experts agree that it’s certainly harder to get ahead in your career during a recession—they have inside tips on how candidates can best set themselves up to make it happen.

Show you can deliver now

For Amelia Sordell, the founder of Klowt, a personal branding agency based in the U.K., the best way to demonstrate to managers that you’re ready for a step up is to prove you can already deliver in the role you want next.

“More often than not people get promoted to the level of their incompetence. What I mean by that is, you do well in your current job, you get promoted to the next level,” she explains. “Make sense, right? Wrong. It makes no sense. There is no evidence to suggest that just because you’re good at your current job that you’ll be good at the one you want to be promoted into.”

As such, she advises employees to take the initiative and do the job they’re aiming for for three months: “Involve yourself in the tasks, take on the responsibility. Show you can do it. And if you’re wanting management, start mentoring other members of staff, give them one-to-ones.”

Competition vs collaboration

Competing for promotions against your colleagues is also natural, adds Sordell. In fact, a survey of 1,000 people in 2020 by software company Prodoscore found that 67% of people wanted to know how they stacked up when compared to colleagues.

But hiring managers will notice if you’re being selfish to the detriment of your peers, “Don’t act like there is such thing as ‘It’s not my job’. If there’s a problem, fix it. And if you can’t fix it? Flag it to someone who can. Pick up dropped balls, help your colleagues out,” Sordell said.

“People believe in order to get promoted you need to be selfish—and to a degree you do. But to get the attention you need to get a promotion, you also need to play the long game and add value to your colleagues lives too.”

Sordell was echoed by career coach Matthew Warzel, who said that building rapport with colleagues not only shows you’re a leader but can give you better oversight of the company’s goals. In a recession, he explained, companies are more focussed on generating revenue and cutting costs.

For people outside of sales functions it can be harder to demonstrate your worth on the bottom line but by working with other departments, you can identify projects and initiatives that you could help support or move along, he continued.

“Be open to new ideas and willing to take on new challenges, even if they are outside of your comfort zone. Analyze the market and see if there are any new opportunities that your company could capitalize on,” he added. “Bring your ideas to your supervisor and be prepared to demonstrate how they could benefit the company.”

In a world of foxes, be a hedgehog

In 1953, Isaiah Berlin wrote an essay on personality types titled the ‘Hedgehog and the Fox’. The fox knows many things, Berlin explains, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. And in economic downturn it is the hedgehogs that flourish, said Matt Cooper, CEO of online learning platform Skillshare.

“At this moment, companies are looking for specialists who are uniquely talented at the specific area of expertise they need most and solving specific problems. In a downturn, the specialists will get jobs and the generalists will struggle,” he said. “In light of this, it’s beneficial for candidates to dig into their specific area of expertise or discipline and master it with new and advanced skills in order to stand out.”

Getting promoted remotely

It can be even harder to stand out from the crowd when your name is best known on Slack, but in a post-pandemic world where employees are keen to keep their new-found work/life balance there’s no reason you should miss out.

That’s according to Amanda Day, director of people enablement at global employment expert Remote.

“Earning a promotion is hard, even in a strong economic environment. To do so in a recession, especially if you’re working remotely, you need to be deliberate to ensure that the work you are doing aligns with how your performance is being evaluated,” she said. “If you are spending a lot of time doing work that doesn’t show up in a performance evaluation, that may be a sign that you need to have a conversation with your manager about either adjusting your measured goals to account for that work or getting some of that work off your plate.”

Being flexible with your career path might also help you get a step up sooner, she added. Companies like Meta, Alphabet and Amazon have all rolled out hiring freezes and as a result, getting a leg up through backfilling a colleague leaving might be more realistic.

“The role just above your current role might not be available, but you may be able to apply for a higher position within a different department if someone there leaves,” Day added. “A promotion isn’t something you can force to happen—instead, show professional maturity and find ways to showcase the value you could bring in a higher role.”