• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50

3

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50

3

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Politicsdebt ceiling

How bad would it be if the U.S. fails to raise its debt limit?

By
Josh Boak
Josh Boak
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Josh Boak
Josh Boak
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 18, 2023, 7:35 AM ET
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has notified Congress that the U.S. is projected to reach its debt limit on Thursday and will then resort to “extraordinary measures” to avoid default.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has notified Congress that the U.S. is projected to reach its debt limit on Thursday and will then resort to “extraordinary measures” to avoid default. Cliff Owen—AP

On the brink of hitting the nation’s legal borrowing limit on Thursday, the government is resorting to “extraordinary measures” to avoid a default.

Sounds ominous, right?

But — take a breath — the phrase technically refers to a bunch of accounting workarounds. Yes, accounting.

Because the debt cap limits the issuance of government bonds — a way the U.S. borrows money — these workarounds shift money among accounts and should keep the government open through at least June, according to a letter last week by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

In theory, President Joe Biden and Congress are supposed to use that additional time to work out an agreement to raise the nation’s legal $31.38 trillion debt ceiling. These talks often grow heated and go down to the wire, with major economic damage in the balance. But there have been roughly 80 deals to raise or suspend the borrowing cap since the 1960s.

What could be worrisome is not the existence of extraordinary measures, but what happens if they are exhausted this summer without a deal in place. Economists have warned that could lead to a global financial crisis.

So far, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Biden are playing what could be a dangerous game of chicken with the world’s largest economy in the middle.

Some questions and answers on the situation:

What are “extraordinary measures”?

Yellen’s Friday letter listed two measures that will begin this month in order to prevent the government from defaulting.

First, the government will temporarily suspend payments to the retirement, disability and health benefit funds for federal employees. Second, it will suspend the reinvestment of maturing government bonds in the retirement savings accounts of government workers.

By suspending the payments, the government can reduce the amount of outstanding debt. That enables the Treasury Department to keep financing government operations, according to Yellen’s letter.

What allows Treasury to use these measures?

No dispute there. Congress has given Treasury the authority to do so.

Because these are retirement accounts, no one is harmed by the government equivalent of an IOU. The funds are made whole after a debt ceiling increase or suspension becomes law. It’s not necessarily the measures that can harm the economy but rather the doubts among consumers and businesses about whether lawmakers will increase the borrowing cap.

How big are these retirement funds?

There were $986 billion in net assets of the civil service and federal employees retirement funds at he end of fiscal 2021, according to a report by the Office of Personnel Management. The required government contributions to the funds are large enough to rely on these extraordinary measures for roughly five months.

How common is this?

“Treasury Secretaries in every Administration over recent decades have used these extraordinary measures when necessary,” Yellen wrote in her letter.

The measures were first deployed in 1985 and have been used at least 16 times since then, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal watchdog.

Why do we have a debt limit?

Before World War I, Congress needed to approve each bond issuance. The debt limit was created as a workaround to finance the war effort without needing a constant series of votes.

Since then, a tool created to make it easier for the government to function has become a source of dysfunction, stoking partisan warfare and creating economic risk as the debt has increased in size over the past 20 years.

How risky is the brinkmanship this time?

It looks alarming — and it’s not clear how Biden, McCarthy and the Democratic Senate will find common ground. A default could cause millions of job losses, a deep recession that would reverberate globally and, ironically, higher interest rates that would make it harder to manage the federal debt.

McCarthy said Tuesday that talks should begin immediately on the potential spending cuts that Republicans are seeking in exchange for raising the debt limit, even though the Biden administration has equated that demand to holding the U.S. economy hostage.

“Who wants to put the nation in some type of threat at the last minute of the debt ceiling?” McCarthy said. “Nobody wants to do that. That’s why we’re asking, ’Let’s change our behavior now. Let’s sit down.”

The Biden administration wants the borrowing cap increased without any preconditions. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday ruled out holding talks with McCarthy.

Do debt limit showdowns help reduce government debt?

Not so much.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that annual budget deficits will grow from roughly $1 trillion to more than $2 trillion over the next 10 years.

The imbalance over the coming years increasingly reflects government expenses for programs such as Medicare and Social Security that are outstripping tax revenue. That suggests the government would need severe cuts to spending, major tax hikes or some combination of those options.

In 2011 when Barack Obama was president and Biden was vice president, there was a bipartisan deal to raise the debt limit by $900 billion in return for $917 billion worth of automatic spending cuts over 10 years.

But the debt reduction never fully materialized.

After Donald Trump became president in 2017, Republican lawmakers fueled further debt increases by passing deficit-financed tax cuts. Debt accelerated even more with the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, which caused massive government borrowing in order to pull the U.S. out of a deep recession.

The CBO last year estimated that the U.S. debt would exceed $40 trillion in 2032.

Learn how to navigate and strengthen trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter examining what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.

About the Authors
By Josh Boak
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By The Associated Press
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Politics

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Politics

Secret Service shoot and kill suspect who fired at White House checkpoint; bystander was also struck but Trump was not affected
Europegun violence
Secret Service shoot and kill suspect who fired at White House checkpoint; bystander was also struck but Trump was not affected
By Darlene Superville, Alanna Durkin Richer and The Associated PressMay 23, 2026
13 hours ago
Ukrainian drone attack causes fire at Russian oil terminal used for exports as Kyiv expands long-range strike capabilities
PoliticsRussia
Ukrainian drone attack causes fire at Russian oil terminal used for exports as Kyiv expands long-range strike capabilities
By The Associated PressMay 23, 2026
14 hours ago
U.S. reaches limit of sanctions power in targeting Iran’s economy
PoliticsIran
U.S. reaches limit of sanctions power in targeting Iran’s economy
By Magdalena Del Valle and BloombergMay 23, 2026
15 hours ago
Trump’s 3,711 trades point to multiple stock-market strategies
InvestingDonald Trump
Trump’s 3,711 trades point to multiple stock-market strategies
By Justina Lee, Vivien Ngo, Elena Popina, Matthew Griffin and BloombergMay 23, 2026
15 hours ago
As U.S.-Iran deal nears, Trump ally warns against creating perception Tehran controls Hormuz — ‘it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with’
PoliticsIran
As U.S.-Iran deal nears, Trump ally warns against creating perception Tehran controls Hormuz — ‘it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with’
By Jason MaMay 23, 2026
15 hours ago
Trump says a deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been ‘largely negotiated’
PoliticsIran
Trump says a deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been ‘largely negotiated’
By Munir Ahmed, Samy Magdy, Matthew Lee and The Associated PressMay 23, 2026
17 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
3 days ago
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
Success
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
By Preston ForeMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
AI
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
By Jake AngeloMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO filing just told us what business he's betting on for the future—and it's not rockets
Investing
Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO filing just told us what business he's betting on for the future—and it's not rockets
By Shawn TullyMay 23, 2026
1 day ago
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
Future of Work
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
By Mike Householder and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
7 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.