• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
PoliticsPolling

Oddsmakers: Republicans are now the clear favorite to win the House and Senate in 2022

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 3, 2021, 10:30 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

On the heels of the gubernatorial race in Virginia, Vice President Kamala Harris urged voters to support Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe, a former governor of Virginia, adding that “what happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022.” Unfortunately for her party, oddsmakers agree with Harris’s assessment.

Soon after it became clear on Tuesday that Republican Glenn Youngkin, a businessman who spent 25 years in private equity at the Carlyle Group, would become the next governor of Virginia, Republicans saw a spike in their chances of retaking both the U.S. House—where Democrats hold a 221 to 213 seat edge—and the U.S. Senate—which is split 50-50 and Democrats control it through Harris’s tie breaking vote—in 2022.

As Fortune has previously reported, gubernatorial races in Virginia—which occur the year following presidential elections—are seen as a harbinger for what will come next in the higher-stakes midterms. Republican Bob McDonnell’s big win in 2009 was seen as a precursor for the GOP’s 2010 Tea Party takeover. In 2013, McAuliffe’s narrow +2.6 percentage point win in the blue state foreshadowed his party’s weak showing in the 2014 midterms, while the big +8.9 point win by Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017 preceded the so-called Democratic blue wave in the 2018 midterms.

That’s why the Republican National Committee is feeling so good following Youngkin’s win: They see his +2.1 point win in the state that President Joe Biden won by 10.1 points in 2020, as momentum having finally shifted from blue to red.

According to PredictIt, Youngkin’s win quickly translated into a bump in the GOP’s odds to retake the House—which they lost in 2018. Back in early August, Republicans led Democrats by a 69 cent to 33 cent margin (or how much you’d need to wager on them to win $1) in the betting market. Following the Virginia win, that gap widened in Republicans’ favor (82 cents to 18 cents).

There is, of course, a big wild card that prevents bettors from fully understanding House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s odds of retaining the chamber: redistricting. We’re currently amid the once-in-a-decade period where statehouses across the nation can redraw their congressional districts. It remains to be seen which party will benefit the most from redistricting this go-around (although, through the first 14 state redraws, FiveThirtyEight says Democrats have netted the most seats) or how far the parties will go down the gerrymandering rabbit hole.

The more challenging takeover will be flipping the Senate.

The good news for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who would like to regain his old jobs as Senate majority leader, is that trajectory is also on the side of Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, back in early August, PredictIt had Democrats and Republicans tied in the Senate race. But that has gradually moved in Republicans’ favor as Biden’s approval rating has slipped.

The GOP got another boost following the election on Tuesday. Prior to the Virginia win, the Senate was more of a toss-up. However, it’s now clearly favoring Republicans, according to the betting markets: According to PredictIt, Republican odds top Democratic odds of taking the Senate chamber next year by a 64 cent to 37 cent margin.

That said, in order to retake the Senate next November, Republicans will need to hold on to 18 of their current seats in states that Donald Trump won last year and another two seats in states Biden won (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Then they’d need to win at least one Senate seat currently held by a Democratic Senator. The most likely targets are Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada—all states that Trump lost by a small margin last year.

More politics coverage from Fortune:

  • A shortage of 80,000 truck drivers is wreaking havoc on the supply chain—and it’s about to get worse
  • It could take nearly a decade for public transit to return to pre-pandemic levels
  • Top D.C. financial regulators release stablecoin report and urge Congress to pass legislation
  • FDA tightens rules for breast implants, after deaths and years of scrutiny over health risks
  • Greenpeace to take Volkswagen to court in effort to stop it from selling polluting cars

Subscribe to Fortune Daily to get essential business stories straight to your inbox each morning.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Politics

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Politics

Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist.
EconomyU.S. economy
‘It’s fair to ask whether it was worth it’: The Iran War has cost Americans $1,000 per household—and that’s a conservative estimate, Mark Zandi says
By Tristan BoveJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
PoliticsDonald Trump
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Donald Trump sits at his desk in the Oval Office, smiling and with his hands folded in front of him.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei
AIAnthropic
Anthropic’s AI models are back online after a two-week government standoff—settling the company and administration into a fragile truce
By Tristan BoveJuly 1, 2026
4 hours ago
US President Donald Trump during a Presidential memorandum signing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, June 29, 2026.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Inside Trump’s finances: World Cup tickets, a $250,000 golf sculpture, over $1 billion in crypto earnings, and a merch machine
By Eleanor PringleJuly 1, 2026
9 hours ago
senate
CommentaryCongress
One rare bipartisan AI bill is moving through Congress. Here’s why it deserves to pass
By Neil Björkman and Betsy BrewerJuly 1, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
13 hours ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
4 days ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
2 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
11 hours ago
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
Commentary
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
By Marc AndersenJune 30, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.