Two EU officials familiar with the matter told Fortune that the U.S. will be added to an open-borders list that already includes eight mainly Asian countries when the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets on Friday. 

“That’s when the decision should be formally adopted, but politically it was already taken by member state ambassadors to the EU,” one of the sources said, requesting anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on behalf of the council.

This news should encourage the tourism industry, which in a typical year can contribute 10% to the EU’s economic output. 

Many still forecast business during the crucial high season of summer travel at just a fraction of the pre-pandemic level, however. 

For one, the U.K., an important source of demand, has yet to be added, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson delaying a full reopening of the economy in England until the latter half of July. 

“The U.K. had been in discussion in the past, and it was very close, but then the [Delta] variant hit, so it was not among those countries proposed to be added by experts yesterday,” a second EU source said. 

Insecurity remains

Additionally, Friday’s formal announcement is a recommendation and not legally binding. Individual countries remain responsible for implementing the recommendation and may choose to do so gradually.

“The list hasn’t really worked, since there are so many ifs and buts. The [European] Commission is simply inviting member states to consider relaxing restrictions for those nationalities, yet it’s left to the member states to decide at which speed they implement this recommendation,” a Brussels-based tourism lobbyist told Fortune. 

“That in turn creates a lot of insecurity for the airlines, so I doubt we will see a lot of new transatlantic routes opening up.”

The main reason for the creation of the list is to avoid individual member states lifting travel restrictions for non-EU countries unilaterally. The bloc wants to make these decisions in a coordinated manner.

Two weeks ago Japan was added to the list, which also includes Australia and South Korea, but the U.S. was left out. 

While no reason was given at the time, a wide range of criteria are applied, including the case positivity rate, how fast the virus is spreading in the population, and progress in vaccination.

To make the list, at least 72% of the 27 member states on the council representing a minimum of 65% of the roughly 450 million EU citizens must vote in favor.

Complicating matters, the U.S. State Department still has a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory on a host of EU countries, including Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Ireland. Meanwhile, Germany, Italy, Greece, and France have a “Level 3: Reconsider Travel” warning.

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