• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on

2

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts

3

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts

1

Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on

2

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts

3

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
Finance

Here’s what could happen to stock markets if the Trump-Biden election results are contested

Anne Sraders
By
Anne Sraders
Anne Sraders
Down Arrow Button Icon
Anne Sraders
By
Anne Sraders
Anne Sraders
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 18, 2020, 5:08 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today.

The 2020 election will likely be controversial—in more ways than one.

With a wrench thrown into traditional voting procedures because of the coronavirus pandemic, partisans on both sides of the aisle are already tossing around the possibility of a messy election—and perhaps one where one side contests the results. And for investors, uncertainty means one thing: volatility.

To be sure, even in 2016 when the outcome wasn’t formally contested, markets briefly panicked after Donald Trump secured the presidency, before recovering (and, indeed, rising considerably) in the following days. But when results are debated and investors are left in limbo, things can get especially dicey, analysts at UBS say.

“If history is any guide, we would expect to see some initial equity market volatility as investors grapple with the resulting policy uncertainty,” Thomas McLoughlin, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note Monday. “Markets abhor uncertainty.”

Democrats have already raised their concern that Trump will interfere with the election, especially given concerns about the dependability of mail-in voting through the embattled and budget-challenged U.S. Postal Service. Trump himself postulated at a White House event on Tuesday that if the election involved a large number of mail-in ballots, “It’ll end up being a rigged election, or they will never come out with an outcome. They’ll have to do it again. And nobody wants that, and I don’t want that.”

The upshot? Investors should probably buckle up for a bit of a bumpy ride come November.

What happened in 2000?

The most relevant and “instructive” example of what happens to markets when an election result is contested is the Bush-Gore presidential contest in 2000.

George W. Bush, the Republican nominee and then-governor of Texas, lost the popular vote to Vice President Al Gore. The contest was decided in the Electoral College, where the result hinged on who won the state of Florida, where voting tallies were hair-raisingly close. “The subsequent recount was exceptionally time-consuming,” UBS’s McLoughlin writes. The Supreme Court eventually intervened to let stand a preliminary count that awarded Bush the state. Gore conceded, and Bush secured the victory roughly six weeks after Election Day.

In that interim, “Markets initially reacted negatively to the absence of a clear winner. London’s FTSE surged on news that … Bush had won but gave up the gains on news of the planned recount,” McLoughlin notes. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 6% in the two weeks following the election, Fortune calculated, while the Dow fell around 5% in the two weeks “as litigation threatened to prolong the uncertainty,” McLoughlin writes.

Litigation is a key concern for 2020, too: McLoughlin suggests that “this year’s election is likely to be the most litigated in history.” He writes that by some counts plaintiffs have “already filed 192 lawsuits in at least 41 states across the nation arising from changes to voting procedures in the wake of the pandemic,” plus others that predated the pandemic.

The good news is that the market volatility in such cases is generally short- lived, UBS notes. In fact, McLoughlin points out that subsequent research has shown the worst impact to markets comes within four trading days of an “uncertain election outcome.”

Current polls show presumptive Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden with an edge over the incumbent. Analysts at firms including JPMorgan Chase have suggested that investors shouldn’t be too concerned about a Biden presidency—and argue he may actually be good for stocks.

“It’s not the case that the minute there’s a changeover in the White House, everything on the campaign platform becomes policy,” Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders recently told Fortune. “I do happen to think a Biden presidency isn’t this guaranteed disaster for the stock market.”

Yet with all the moving pieces, the headline for investors here is to be “prepared for volatility in the event of an inconclusive result,” says McLoughlin. That said, fleeing into “safe haven” assets like gold or treasuries may be premature. Adds McLoughlin: “Any initial volatility should dissipate over time.”

About the Author
Anne Sraders
By Anne Sraders
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

What is uninsured motorist coverage and do you need it?
Personal FinanceInsurance
What is uninsured motorist coverage and do you need it?
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 10, 2026
24 minutes ago
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
Middle EastIran
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
By Jason MaJuly 10, 2026
1 hour ago
Asian businessman using a laptop
SuccessCareers
One Wall Street firm is paying its Gen Z interns fresh out of college $8,600 a week—more than the typical American makes in nearly two months
By Preston ForeJuly 10, 2026
2 hours ago
Erling Haaland #9 of Norway
Successathletes
When Erling Haaland isn’t playing for Norway in the World Cup, he’s investing in a chess championship and playing an animated Viking
By Emma BurleighJuly 10, 2026
2 hours ago
At least a million woman lose access to humanitarian supports thanks to Trump budget cuts
PoliticsDonald Trump
At least a million woman lose access to humanitarian supports thanks to Trump budget cuts
By The Associated PressJuly 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Tech shares lift global markets while oil slips as Iran war keeps traders on edge
EconomyIran
Tech shares lift global markets while oil slips as Iran war keeps traders on edge
By The Associated Press and Chan Ho-HimJuly 10, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on
Economy
Farm groups saved Bayer in court over RoundUp cancer claims. Five days later, Bayer called for tariffs on the ingredient farmers rely on
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 9, 2026
1 day ago
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
Success
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
By Emma BurleighJuly 9, 2026
1 day ago
U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
Economy
U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
By Eleanor PringleJuly 10, 2026
7 hours ago
Self-made multimillionaire says Canadians 'give no money away' compared with Americans—research shows U.S. giving is more than twice as high
Success
Self-made multimillionaire says Canadians 'give no money away' compared with Americans—research shows U.S. giving is more than twice as high
By Preston ForeJuly 9, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 9, 2026
1 day ago
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
Success
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
By Preston ForeJuly 6, 2026
4 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.