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You know it’s going to be a rough day when markets reporters look to infectious disease specialists for their take on the big story of the moment. That’s precisely what’s happening today.
Get used to it.
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is accelerating this morning, and that’s knocking markets from Tokyo to the U.S. futures. The European markets were headed for their worst one-day fall since October. Meanwhile, the Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year festivities today, and may remain shuttered the entire week, an unnerving development unto itself.
The public health numbers are worrying. Chinese officials report that more than 2,700 have been infected by this powerful virus. Of that, 461 are in critical condition and 80 have died. This interactive map shows the disease vector moving well beyond the epicenter in recent days, with reported cases in Australia, France, Canada and the United States (to name a few).
Last week, the markets (particularly outside Asia) remained fairly resilient in the face of the outbreak. As the chart below shows, Europe and the U.S. more or less have shaken off the threat—in the first week at least. The same cannot be said of China-focused shares, and, even worse, Brent crude.
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At the open for the European markets today, energy stocks were one of the big losers.
What can we expect going forward? As I pointed out last week, the 2003 SARS outbreak may be the best indicator. Seventeen years ago, the MSCI China hit its outbreak-low about six weeks after the disease was (belatedly) first made public by Chinese authorities. From disclosure to bottom, there was an 11.5% drop back then. MSCI China is down about 6% so far.
It’s still way too early to get a feel for how coronavirus may ultimately impact the markets. But if history is a judge, it could be a rough Q1 for sectors and economies closely tied to China.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
Today's reads
The Red Wall holds. As I mentioned on Friday, there was a big regional election in Italy's Emilia-Romagna over the weekend in which the incumbent left was trying to hold off the far right wave of Matteo Salvini's League party. Things usually don't go to script in Italian politics, and this time was no different. Salvini lost, and the Italian bonds had something of a relief rally this morning. But analysts are already predicting more trouble ahead for the weak coalition Italian government. If it were to crash out, that could bring further trouble to Europe's already fractious power structure.
Biggest Tax Heist Ever. A few years back, traders in Europe found a loophole that was so tedious and complicated they figured nobody would catch them if they exploited it. Over and over again. It became known as the cum-ex trading swindle, and it cost European governments, particularly Germany, $60 billion in losses. Many of the traders eventually were caught, and now they stand trial for what Le Monde calls the "robbery of the century." The New York Times has a fascinating read on how it all went down, and what's to come.
A million bucks won't cut it. That's the message from retirement planners who now calculate you'll need more than that princely sum in order to retire comfortably. “The new rule of thumb is $3 million,” financial planner Thomas Balcom told Fortune. And even that may not be enough.
Market candy
La stella Kobe. News of Kobe Bryant's death has been a real jolt for sports fans, including me. One of the things that always struck me about him was his enduring connection to Italy. If you know the story of Bryant, you probably recall he spent his grammar school years in the bel paese. Kobe returned to the states at 13, but he would come back every now and then to his old stomping grounds in Italy. And then there were the times when the Italian press would catch up with him on the road. Bryant was always game to conduct the interviews in Italian. And, damn, was he a smooth talker. As my Italian wife would often chide me, "He speaks better than you!" Yeah, that and dunk, and drive, and win championships. For those of you who care to follow what the Italians feel about this tragedy here's a lovely little tribute from the local newspaper in Reggio Emilia, where piccolo Kobe, or little Kobe, grew up.
One last thing
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Correction
In Friday's Bull Sheet the headline of the top chart referred to the economies of China, Europe and the United States as shrinking. That's not the case. They are still growing, but that growth is slowing. Apols for the confusion.