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Trump Says the Economy Is Doing Great, But These Economists Fear a Recession by 2021

President Donald Trump and some of the country’s leading economists are at odds over whether another recession is imminent.

Trump remains confident that no recession is forthcoming. Despite a sharp drop in the markets last week, Trump said as recently as Sunday, “I don’t think we’re having a recession.”

The President appeared to be echoing this message in a number of tweets he shared on Sunday and Monday. After calling the U.S. economy “the best in the world,” Trump wrote that the country is “poised for big growth.” In another tweet, he argued that the economy is “very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed.” Trump went on to claim that the Democrats are “trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.” 

A report from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), on the other hand, paints a different picture. The report, which was released Monday, found that 74% of those surveyed believe that Trump’s economics policies could yield a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four percent said they believe that the recession will come by 2021, up from 25% in the February survey. Thirty-eight percent, meanwhile, believe that that recession could come as soon as next year, marking a slight decrease from the 42% who predicted as much earlier this year. Just 2% of those polled think a recession could come before the end of the year. 

The NABE polled 226 respondents between July 14 and August 1—just before the Trump administration announced it would be imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The respondents had previously expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs could have a negative effect on the economy.

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