• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
FinanceEconomy

It Only Seems Like the Economy Is a Disaster

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 24, 2016, 1:00 PM ET
Neu Stock Images — Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

In the September 1st issue of Fortune, a version of this article ran alongside “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad,” about why most Americans still think the economy is a disaster.

Economics is called the dismal science, but of late its practitioners have shown themselves to be most optimistic figures in the debate over the state of the union.

Politicians, voters, and yes, journalists, have all recently fretted that this placid moment in the American economy won’t last, and that the third-longest period between recessions in post-war history, will soon give way to another crisis. But it was America’s highest-ranking economist, Janet Yellen, who assured us that “expansions don’t die of old age,” and that there’s no reason to expect a downturn, as long as we can avoid policy mistakes or another shock.

Economists like to back their arguments up with data, and the case for optimism about American growth has a lot of it on its side. Take for, instance, the recent period of low interest rates. The bear case is that money is so cheap because private actors see few opportunities for investment other than government debt. But looked at another way, it proves the confidence investors have in the American government’s ability to pay them back. And those low rates have set the stage for the kind of aggressive infrastructure spending that Larry Summers and other thinkers say could fuel decades of growth and solve the American underemployment problem.

For more on the economy, watch this Fortune video:

And what about that job market? We hear all the time that wage growth is stagnant even as a sub-5% unemployment rate and average monthly job growth of 186,000 suggests that labor markets are getting tighter every day. But pay has actually risen steadily since 2002 when you control for other demographic trends (lower-paid younger workers replacing higher-paid older ones). According to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, by this measure, on average workers saw their pay rise 3.1% in 2015—historically not gangbusters growth, but picking up much faster than the gloomy headlines suggest.

Wages aren’t the only thing on the rise. The S&P 500 touched a new high this August, while many housing markets across the country are doing the same. According to real estate data firm CoreLogic, the real estate markets 40% of U.S. metro areas have reached new peaks, with another 30% are within 10% of their highs during the bubble years. That means that many Americans that own their own homes are far richer today than eight years ago.

economy chart
Click to enlarge.

 

Still, these gains have been slow to filter their way through the broader economy. According to Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist at Standish Mellon, “Nobody feels good in an economy trapped beneath 2% growth.” And this has made consumers reluctant to spend the wealth gains they’ve seen since the end of the recession. This is evidenced by retail sales growing under 2% for the past year, helping to put an artificial damper on overall growth.

Perhaps the most important misconception, however, may be that blue-collar labor is headed for extinction as robots destroy more human jobs. While in recent years a tech boom may have made ordering pizza much easier, it hasn’t actually stimulated an attendant productivity boom. The latest reading, in fact, showed that worker productivity fell 0.4% in the second quarter year over year, meaning that the economy is actually producing less per worker today. That’s not a great omen for growth, but it’s a sign that the economy will still have jobs (and paychecks) for humans for a while.

Read more: “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad”

A version of this article appears in the September 1, 2016 issue of Fortune with the headline “How We Feel About the Economy… How It’s Actually Doing.”

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

Wealthy man in car
SuccessMillionaires
120 millionaires have signed a letter begging the British government to tax them more: ‘We can afford it’
By Emma BurleighJuly 24, 2026
3 hours ago
t
EnergyWhite House
Trump promises cheaper power from data centers. Analysts say bills could jump 40%
By Josh Boak, Matthew Daly and The Associated PressJuly 24, 2026
5 hours ago
shop
EnergyInflation
Oil at $100 is pushing up costs from gas pumps to grocery aisles
By Cathy Bussewitz, Mae Anderson, Anne D'Innocenzio and The Associated PressJuly 24, 2026
6 hours ago
Current price of gold as of July 24, 2026
Personal Financegold prices
Current price of gold as of July 24, 2026
By Danny BakstJuly 24, 2026
6 hours ago
Inside Larry Culp’s playbook for fixing GE
NewslettersCFO Daily
Inside Larry Culp’s playbook for fixing GE
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 24, 2026
6 hours ago
Three people sitting on stairs
Startups & VentureTerm Sheet
Neo raises $100 million to hunt the zombie AI agents haunting your company
By Amanda GerutJuly 24, 2026
7 hours ago

Most Popular

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
Real Estate
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 22, 2026
2 days ago
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
Economy
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
11 hours ago
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
Personal Finance
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
By Joshua HongJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.