• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns

2

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

3

Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?

1

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns

2

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

3

Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?
FinanceEconomy

It Only Seems Like the Economy Is a Disaster

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 24, 2016, 1:00 PM ET
Neu Stock Images — Getty Images

In the September 1st issue of Fortune, a version of this article ran alongside “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad,” about why most Americans still think the economy is a disaster.

Economics is called the dismal science, but of late its practitioners have shown themselves to be most optimistic figures in the debate over the state of the union.

Politicians, voters, and yes, journalists, have all recently fretted that this placid moment in the American economy won’t last, and that the third-longest period between recessions in post-war history, will soon give way to another crisis. But it was America’s highest-ranking economist, Janet Yellen, who assured us that “expansions don’t die of old age,” and that there’s no reason to expect a downturn, as long as we can avoid policy mistakes or another shock.

Economists like to back their arguments up with data, and the case for optimism about American growth has a lot of it on its side. Take for, instance, the recent period of low interest rates. The bear case is that money is so cheap because private actors see few opportunities for investment other than government debt. But looked at another way, it proves the confidence investors have in the American government’s ability to pay them back. And those low rates have set the stage for the kind of aggressive infrastructure spending that Larry Summers and other thinkers say could fuel decades of growth and solve the American underemployment problem.

For more on the economy, watch this Fortune video:

And what about that job market? We hear all the time that wage growth is stagnant even as a sub-5% unemployment rate and average monthly job growth of 186,000 suggests that labor markets are getting tighter every day. But pay has actually risen steadily since 2002 when you control for other demographic trends (lower-paid younger workers replacing higher-paid older ones). According to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, by this measure, on average workers saw their pay rise 3.1% in 2015—historically not gangbusters growth, but picking up much faster than the gloomy headlines suggest.

Wages aren’t the only thing on the rise. The S&P 500 touched a new high this August, while many housing markets across the country are doing the same. According to real estate data firm CoreLogic, the real estate markets 40% of U.S. metro areas have reached new peaks, with another 30% are within 10% of their highs during the bubble years. That means that many Americans that own their own homes are far richer today than eight years ago.

economy chart
Click to enlarge.

 

Still, these gains have been slow to filter their way through the broader economy. According to Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist at Standish Mellon, “Nobody feels good in an economy trapped beneath 2% growth.” And this has made consumers reluctant to spend the wealth gains they’ve seen since the end of the recession. This is evidenced by retail sales growing under 2% for the past year, helping to put an artificial damper on overall growth.

Perhaps the most important misconception, however, may be that blue-collar labor is headed for extinction as robots destroy more human jobs. While in recent years a tech boom may have made ordering pizza much easier, it hasn’t actually stimulated an attendant productivity boom. The latest reading, in fact, showed that worker productivity fell 0.4% in the second quarter year over year, meaning that the economy is actually producing less per worker today. That’s not a great omen for growth, but it’s a sign that the economy will still have jobs (and paychecks) for humans for a while.

Read more: “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad”

A version of this article appears in the September 1, 2016 issue of Fortune with the headline “How We Feel About the Economy… How It’s Actually Doing.”

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Trump says a deal has been reached with Iran and orders end to U.S. naval blockade as Hormuz to reopen — ‘Ships of the World, start your engines’
PoliticsIran
Trump says a deal has been reached with Iran and orders end to U.S. naval blockade as Hormuz to reopen — ‘Ships of the World, start your engines’
By Julia Frankel, Abby Sewell, Munir Ahmed, Will Weissert and The Associated PressJune 14, 2026
2 hours ago
Social Security faces steep cuts. These senators want to bet on stocks and $27 trillion in debt to save it—but ‘the gamble does not always pay off’
InvestingSocial Security
Social Security faces steep cuts. These senators want to bet on stocks and $27 trillion in debt to save it—but ‘the gamble does not always pay off’
By Jason MaJune 14, 2026
2 hours ago
Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
CommentaryVietnam
Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
By Brian McFeeters and Vu Tu ThanhJune 14, 2026
3 hours ago
Iran pushes differing versions of deal as U.S. sticks to timeline
PoliticsIran
Iran pushes differing versions of deal as U.S. sticks to timeline
By Salma El Wardany, Arsalan Shahla and BloombergJune 14, 2026
5 hours ago
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world’s top superpower can at least punch open a hole
EnergyIran
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world’s top superpower can at least punch open a hole
By Jason MaJune 14, 2026
6 hours ago
SpaceX surge further boosts Saudi billionaire prince’s fortune
InvestingSaudi Arabia
SpaceX surge further boosts Saudi billionaire prince’s fortune
By Adveith Nair and BloombergJune 14, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
Real Estate
Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
By Sydney LakeJune 13, 2026
2 days ago
Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
Personal Finance
Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
By John W. Diamond and The ConversationJune 12, 2026
2 days ago
Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?
Economy
Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?
By Nick LichtenbergJune 14, 2026
13 hours ago
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
Success
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
By Preston ForeJune 13, 2026
2 days ago
Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday
Middle East
Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday
By Jason MaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
AI
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
By Jason MaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.