Spreadsheet of the day: Final estimates for Apple’s fiscal Q4

Today should be a busy day on the Apple beat.

  • Apple Pay goes live with the release of iOS 8.1, along with the launch of iCloud Photo Library and a functioning Handoff (which, for many of us on Yosemite, still isn’t working).
  • We should get some details about iPhone 6/6+ first-weekend sales in China, where every configuration is currently out of stock.
  • Capping it off, CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri will host a 5 pm ET conference call with analysts to discuss last quarter’s earnings and offer guidance for the big holiday quarter coming up.


Here I’ve got the fiscal Q4 estimates of 33 Apple analysts — 21 professionals and 12 amateurs. They are all to a man (and one woman) predicting record Q4 sales and earnings (up 7.1% and 11.9%, respectively).

The range between high and low and amateur and pro is a good deal narrower than it was six years ago when I began this quarterly exercise. Back then, Steve Jobs was still low-balling Apple’s guidance to heighten the quarterly surprise and subscription accounting of iPhone sales still confused a lot of analysts — especially the pros.

But Apple hasn’t lost the ability to surprise. I’ll be watching the results come in — usually about half and hour after the markets close — and eavesdropping on the 5 pm. ET analysts call. You can too. Link: Financial results Q4 2014.

Below: The individual analyst’s estimates, with pros in blue and indies in green. I’ll run my quarterly Earnings Smackdown after the earnings call and post the best-and-worst analyst rankings Tuesday morning.

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 12.58.26 PM

Click to enlarge.

Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

See also: How many iPhones, iPads and Macs did Apple sell last quarter?

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

Subscribe to Well Adjusted, our newsletter full of simple strategies to work smarter and live better, from the Fortune Well team. Sign up today.