• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Financejackson hole

Will Yellen rattle markets from Jackson Hole?

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 19, 2014, 1:49 PM ET
Photo by Bloomberg—Getty Images

It’s the party of the summer, if you’re into interest rates and macroprudential regulations.

Each year The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sponsors a symposium in Grand Teton National Park near Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where some of the world’s most important central banker, academics and business leaders from around the world convene on a small resort town near the border of Wyoming.

First chosen in 1982 for the for its excellent trout fishing (in order to convince then-Fed-Chair and avid fisherman Paul Volcker to attend), the Jackson Hole symposium has sinced developed a reputation for a place where groundbreaking economic papers are introduced and where market-moving public policy is announced. It was at Jackson Hole, for instance, that Ben Bernanke hinted at the implementation of the successive rounds of quantitative easing in 2010 and 2012, respectively.

So market-watchers will be paying close attention to the gathering this year and to Janet Yellen’s speech, planned for Thursday. Though the theme of the symposium of “Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics,” the stock market will clearly be focused on what, if anything, can be gleaned about the future path of interest rates from Yellen’s speech.

The chosen theme of the event should give market watchers hope that hints will be sent their way, as the Fed has made it clear that it’s committed to keep rates at zero until the labor market improves. What Janet Yellen and company have been less explicit about is what exactly constitutes a strong enough labor market to warrant raising interest rates.

If you look simply at the unemployment rate and inflation, it looks like the economy is heading where the Fed wants it to be, and fast.

US 12-Month Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate Chart

US 12-Month Trimmed Mean PCE

This dynamic has lead Fed officials like Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher to argue that the Fed can and should raise rates as early as the beginning of 2015. Meanwhile, as Morgan Stanely economist Vincent Reinhardt points out in a research note to clients Tuesday morning, the Fed has yet to publicly amend it’s game plan for how it actually will begin to normalize rates, and when it will begin to shrink a balance sheet that at nearly $4.5 trillion back down to a more normal $1 trillion, if it plans to do so at all. Reinhardt explains that back in 2011, the Fed had a roadmap, but that plan is no longer applicable because the Fed has changed its approach to stimulus by making it more dependent on economic conditions on the ground than it had been doing before that time.

So there’s a chance that Yellen might hint at the Fed’s approach to normalizing conditions, but mostly the question comes down to — what does Yellen consider a healthy labor market? Inflation has been below the Fed’s target for more than two straight years, and without any signs of inflation growing consistently, it will be all eyes on the labor market. And Yellen’s most recent public comments on the subject point strongly to the idea that she’s in no rush to raise rates. In July during her testimony before Congress, Yellen talked of “significant slack” in the labor market that was visible in low wages, a stagnant labor-force participation rate, and sluggish turnover in the job market.

And looking at these data, there’s not been strong evidence that would convince Yellen the labor market is improving significantly enough to think about raising rates soon. While a higher rate of workers are starting new jobs and quitting than during the depths of the recession, those numbers remain below normal, as does the labor-force participation rate. And perhaps most importantly, real wage growth continues to be nonexistent:

US Real Average Hourly Earnings Chart

So while the markets will be on the lookout for big news coming from Yellen on Thursday, there’s little reason to suspect she’ll change course any time soon.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
Future of WorkWorkplace Innovation Summit
Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
By Ashley LutzMay 22, 2026
6 hours ago
Sam Altman standing in a lift.
AIOpenAI
The big questions looming over OpenAI’s trillion-dollar IPO
By Beatrice NolanMay 22, 2026
7 hours ago
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
EconomyRetail
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 22, 2026
7 hours ago
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
Startups & VentureSpaceX
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
By Jason MaMay 22, 2026
7 hours ago
ta
EconomySocial Media
They created AI nudes that got millions of views online. Now they’re being charged with crimes
By Jake Offenhartz and The Associated PressMay 22, 2026
9 hours ago
Best private student loans in May 2026
Personal FinanceLoans
Best private student loans in May 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 22, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
1 day ago
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
Success
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
By Preston ForeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
3 days ago
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
Workplace Culture
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
By Sydney LakeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
McKinsey partner says up to 50% of work hours could be transformed within the next 5 years
AI
McKinsey partner says up to 50% of work hours could be transformed within the next 5 years
By Emma BurleighMay 21, 2026
1 day ago
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
Conferences
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
By Tristan BoveMay 20, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.