• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

Stocks not near a bubble? Hold on there Janet Yellen

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 15, 2013, 5:04 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Fortune — At Thursday’s confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen, the nominee to be the next Federal Reserve chairman was asked whether she thought there was a bubble in the stock market.

Yellen gave a pretty clear answer: No.

“Stock prices have risen pretty robustly,” Yellen said. “But I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions.”

Perhaps Yellen should have been even more bullish.

MORE: Dalio: Stocks will disappoint over the next decade

There are a number of ways to judge whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued. But the one most associated with the Fed — it’s nicknamed the Fed model — is to compare the stock market’s earnings yield, which is earnings/price or the inverse of the popular price-to-earnings multiple, to the interest rate on 10-year Treasuries.

The stocks in the S&P 500 (SPX) are expected to earn a collective $119.19 a share over the next year, according to FactSet. Divide that by the S&P 500’s recent 1792, and you get an earnings yield, essentially how much the average stock is expected to return in income a year, of 6.8%.

The idea is that if you can get the same expected return from bonds, which are generally considered lower risk, buying stocks makes little sense. As bond yield approach stock yields, sell. On the flip side, when stocks yield more than bonds, buy.

The Fed has never officially blessed the model. But Greenspan referred to it regularly, and Yellen’s comments on Thursday suggest she looks at bond yields when valuing stocks as well.

The rate on 10-year government bonds is 2.7%. That means stocks are not only cheap, they’re a screaming bargain.

Critics would contend that the Fed model is meaningless right now. The Fed has been artificially driving down interest rates. That’s what’s making stocks look cheap.

MORE: JPMorgan exec: The really smart people will always just buy stocks

But even before QE, some strategists thought the Fed model was flawed. Stocks and U.S. government bonds have different levels of risk. So back in the 1980s a number of prominent strategists contended that what you really needed to do was compare the earnings yield of the market to the expected interest rate on AAA-rated corporate bonds. Best guess for that is 4.9%, according to Randell Moore at Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which polls economists. So by that measure stocks are still cheap, but not by nearly as much.

Back in the ’80s, though, lots of U.S. companies were rated AAA. Few are today. The most common rating for U.S. corporate bonds is BBB+, one notch above junk. The expected yield on those bonds is 5.9%. Use that yield, and we’re not that far away from where the Fed model starts flashing sell.

We might get there pretty soon. When the Fed slows its bond buying, which most people expect will happen by the middle of next year, interest rates on all bonds are likely to go up, not just Treasuries. And corporate bond yields don’t have to move up much before stocks go from looking cheap, to rather expensive. Bubble territory is not as far away as it looks.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

Traders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks
Investingstock trading
Traders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks
By Bernard Goyder, Katherine Doherty and BloombergJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
Big Tech earnings slam into a market in revolt over AI spending
Big Techearnings
Big Tech earnings slam into a market in revolt over AI spending
By Jeran Wittenstein, Ryan Vlastelica and BloombergJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
Romania scrambles F-16 jets to shoot down a suspected Russian ‘Shahed type’ drone, marking the fourth recent violation of NATO airspace
PoliticsRussia
Romania scrambles F-16 jets to shoot down a suspected Russian ‘Shahed type’ drone, marking the fourth recent violation of NATO airspace
By Sam McNeil, Vadim Ghirda and The Associated PressJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
James Cameron tried to warn us: ‘Skynet Day’ is now shorthand for OpenAI’s agent going rogue and hacking into a startup
AIOpenAI
James Cameron tried to warn us: ‘Skynet Day’ is now shorthand for OpenAI’s agent going rogue and hacking into a startup
By Laurie Kellman, Lindsey Bahr and The Associated PressJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea could signal a new battlefront as U.S. seeks to form ‘a ring of economic and military pressure’
Middle EastIran
Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea could signal a new battlefront as U.S. seeks to form ‘a ring of economic and military pressure’
By Jason MaJuly 26, 2026
3 hours ago
The U.S. and Iran pause attacks on each other for a second straight day while Tehran continues talks with Oman over Hormuz
EnergyIran
The U.S. and Iran pause attacks on each other for a second straight day while Tehran continues talks with Oman over Hormuz
By Samy Magdy, Cara Anna and The Associated PressJuly 26, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
Middle East
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
3 days ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
Success
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
Economy
College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 26, 2026
10 hours ago
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
Environment
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.