• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

2

Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026

3

Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates

1

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

2

Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026

3

Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates

3 headwinds facing the Fed

By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 18, 2013, 2:19 PM ET
Ben Bernanke on Capitol HIll

FORTUNE – It’s a big day on Wall Street. As policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve wrap up with two-day meeting Wednesday, they’ll decide whether the economy is solid enough to start winding down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. The central bank’s $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program has helped drive down long-term interest rates to historical lows, spurring everything from business investments to home sales and refinancing.

But as Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee weigh the risks and gains of quantitative easing, their job gets more complicated when we look at a few economic headwinds that have emerged. Here’s a look at three big ones.

Interest rates

The Fed has partial control over interest rates. Since the central bank signaled in May that it could scale down its bond-buying program, interest rates have risen higher; the 10-year Treasury yield is around 3%, up from less than 2% four months ago.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing – so far, auto sales have soared and the housing market, although poised to slow down a bit, continues to recover. Because the economic recovery is still fragile, however, it could squeeze borrowers if costs go up too quickly. And that’s something the Fed may caution against.

Already, the cost of a 30-year-fixed home loan rose to an average of 4.57% last week from 3.35% in May. While that’s still historically low, the spike has nonetheless dampened the boom in refinancing – a development that’s prompted job cuts at Bank of America (BAC) and others like JPMorgan (JPM) to lose money. Higher mortgages rates may not stall the housing recovery, but that could also depend how quickly rates rise and how quickly, if at all, borrowers might be able to adapt.

MORE: JPMorgan’s London Whale fine is excessive and political

Debt ceiling debate

Something else the Fed will probably factor: Washington lawmakers face another debt ceiling deadline Sept. 30, which could potentially lead to more cuts in government spending.

Already, keeping cuts from sequestration in place through 2014 would cost the economy up to 1.6 million jobs, according to a Congressional Budget Office report in July. The latest debt ceiling deadline may not be as drama-filled as the previous two, but that will depend whether the Obama administration gets its way.

Republicans say they won’t raise the debt ceiling unless it’s paired with budget cuts and reforms, but the president has said it won’t offer any.

A government shutdown would be awful for the economy, but a compromise that includes further budget cuts would also further dampen the recovery.

MORE: Sorry, Wall Street. Janet Yellen is no dove

Emerging market slowdown

There’s also Brazil, China and other emerging markets to consider.  They helped lift the global economy out of the depths of the financial crisis, but after a decade of surging growth, these economies have slowed sharply. It’s likely the trend will continue in the coming months, potentially sending ripple effects in the U.S. and the rest of the world.

For 2013, China is holding its breath to hit its official target of 7.5% growth; a marked drop from double-digit growth in previous years. Growth in India, Brazil and Russia is expected to barely be half of what it was at the height of the boom. Altogether, emerging markets may barely match last year’s 5% growth, which sounds decent compared with the U.S. but it’s the slowest in a decade.

Already, rising interest rates in the U.S., which could dramatically slow down sales in emerging markets, have put pressure on currencies and stocks from India to Turkey and Brazil. And banks with sizable investments in emerging markets, such as Citigroup (C), may feel it, as Fortune’s Stephen Gandel points out.

About the Author
By Nin-Hai Tseng
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma speaks on stage at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2026.
Big TechMicrosoft
‘Not an Allbirds Moment’: Xbox’s new CEO says she is grounding the console in gaming roots not AI
By Sebastian HerreraJune 9, 2026
2 hours ago
Trump speaking into a mic.
NewslettersEye on AI
Should Americans get an equity stake in AI? Trump and progressive Democrats float public ownership of AI
By Beatrice NolanJune 9, 2026
2 hours ago
Options trader Chris Daytona, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, June 3, 2026.
Investinginvestors
Mystery NASDAQ selloff adds tension into a make-or-break week for the AI trade
By Stan Choe and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
3 hours ago
Three people having a seated discussion
AIBrainstorm Tech
‘Getting control where we can’—Europe wants sovereign AI but most of the chips are from the U.S.
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
3 hours ago
A $200 million Boomer estate, millennial heir Nick Reiner, and the dark side of the Great Wealth Transfer
Lawinheritance
A $200 million Boomer estate, millennial heir Nick Reiner, and the dark side of the Great Wealth Transfer
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
3 hours ago
Claude Mythos on a screen.
AIAnthropic
Anthropic releases its first Mythos-class model to the public
By Beatrice NolanJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
Environment
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
By Sasha RogelbergJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
Success
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
By Preston ForeJune 7, 2026
2 days ago
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
21 hours ago
'We didn’t see this coming': Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off globally on fear of AI bubble ahead of SpaceX IPO
Economy
'We didn’t see this coming': Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off globally on fear of AI bubble ahead of SpaceX IPO
By Jim EdwardsJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
Economy
'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
By Nick LichtenbergJune 7, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.