• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation

3

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation

3

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

Economists are bullish on China’s new leadership

By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 7, 2013, 5:36 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Xi Jinping

FORTUNE — How will China overcome its own cliff? That was the question for a group of Chinese economists Monday who gathered at the New York Stock Exchange to offer their forecast for the world’s second-largest economy. The annual conference sponsored by the National Committee on U.S.-China relations had a twist this year. For the first time in a decade, the country faced a political cliff after the communist leadership turned over at the top. Xi Jinping replaced Hu Jintao as the country’s top leader, and the second in command changed as well. Are these leaders ready to move China toward a consumption economy? Are they willing to enact social reforms?

The transition comes at an interesting time for China. Under its old economic model dependent on domestic investment—building huge roads, huge bridges, huge housing for its 1.3 billion people—things seem to have petered out. GDP growth slowed last year to somewhere around 8%—with economists expecting it to further fall to 7.7% in 2013— and economists have warned that imbalances in investment vs. consumption are the worst they’ve been in over a decade. What happens next is largely left to Xi Jinping, in his role as China’s most powerful communist, and his deputy Li Keqiang.

MORE: China’s 2-million iPhone 5 launch: What the analysts say

Justin Lin, the former World Bank chief economist who resides in China and spoke on Monday, expects the new leaders to push badly needed reforms through the economy.

“China will try to do this kind of marginal reform,” he told a gathering of reporters Monday. “You have to be patient. It may not be as rapid as you might hope. But China is very close to a well-functioning market economy.”

Lin says China’s economy still faces challenges. Between growing income disparity and corruption, China breeds the kind of social resentment that causes negative headlines around the world. But that may be solved by a reform-minded new leadership. “The new leadership can take this on,” he says. Lin’s sanguine outlook for the new communist leaders and China’s economy — this year he expects GDP to grow north of 8% — was supported by the rest of the gaggle of economists on Monday.

Western observers are also chiming in on China’s new leaders — and sounding similarly bullish. Longtime Wall Street strategist Byron Wien wrote recently that “the new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs.” Wien expects leaders to surprise people by jump starting China’s sagging stock market, which he forecasts to return more than 20% in 2013.

MORE: Byron Wien’s 2013 surprises

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, a veteran observer of China, wrote over the weekend that he expects Xi Jinping to spearhead economic reform and ease some of China’s harsher social policies. “It’s in his genes,” writes Kristof. “His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a pioneer of economic restructuring and publicly denounced the massacre of pro-democracy protesters in 1989. Xi’s mother chooses to live in Shenzhen, the most capitalist enclave in the country.”

Lastly, onetime George Soros partner and current China bull Jim Rogers sounds as happy as ever with his bullish take. With developed countries sagging under huge debt loads, he’s predicting China to continue moving towards becoming a knowledge economy — built by innovation rather than state-sponsored construction–and that its new leaders will drive it.

He told CNN in November, “They are going to continue to open up. They are going to open the currency sometime during his [Xi Jinping] regime. They are going to open up more and more to outside investment, they are going to open up more and more to outside trading on the exchanges,” he said. “Mao Zedong is not coming back.”

During a Q&A at the Monday conference, a questioner asked the panel of Chinese economists about potential Black Swans. What might they be missing in their sanguine outlook for the country’s economy and its new leadership? What scares them?

The panel sat quiet for a few seconds. The moderator finally pushed someone to answer. Recessions in Japan and the eurozone are their biggest fears. The Chinese economy and its new leaders? About those, they feel just fine.

About the Author
By Scott Cendrowski
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

Samsung’s North America CEO says the smartphone is just an entry point to ambient AI of the home
NewslettersCEO Daily
Samsung’s North America CEO says the smartphone is just an entry point to ambient AI of the home
By Diane BradyJuly 22, 2026
1 hour ago
Hugging Face CEO Clément Delangue (center) on Capitol Hill on September 13, 2023 in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
NewslettersFortune Tech
OpenAI: Our models accidentally compromised Hugging Face
By Andrew NuscaJuly 22, 2026
2 hours ago
George Soros never signed the Giving Pledge. He’s given away more of his fortune than the billionaires who did
Successphilanthropy
George Soros never signed the Giving Pledge. He’s given away more of his fortune than the billionaires who did
By Sydney LakeJuly 22, 2026
3 hours ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for July 22, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for July 22, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 22, 2026
3 hours ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for July 22, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for July 22, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 22, 2026
3 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, July 22, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, July 22, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 22, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
2 days ago
OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation
Cybersecurity
OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation
By Jeremy Kahn and Emily ForliniJuly 21, 2026
14 hours ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
2 days ago
Mathematicians grapple with a ‘very rapid and very unsettling change’ as AI cracks yet another century-old problem
AI
Mathematicians grapple with a ‘very rapid and very unsettling change’ as AI cracks yet another century-old problem
By Eva RoytburgJuly 21, 2026
18 hours ago
Despite a $156 million contract, Knicks star Jalen Brunson still calls his parents for financial advice any time he makes a big purchase
Success
Despite a $156 million contract, Knicks star Jalen Brunson still calls his parents for financial advice any time he makes a big purchase
By Emma BurleighJuly 21, 2026
19 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.