• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

1

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
FinanceCommodities

The Fed’s commodity bubble

By
Howard Penney
Howard Penney
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Howard Penney
Howard Penney
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 15, 2010, 3:33 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Everything from gold to rubber is reaching new highs. And that’s just one of many landmines the stock market bulls are ignoring.

If Chuck Prince were in the game today, he would be dancing. In 2007, the former Citigroup CEO famously addressed a question about the bank’s push into the booming mortgage market by saying: “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”

As we well know, that music eventually stopped and many of the revelers were crushed. But memories are short. Today, plenty of investors are dancing as the S&P 500 pushes higher, even while the already-elevated quantitative easing expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. It’s just a matter of time before the music stops playing and the consequences of a debased currency are brought to bear on this economy.

There are many landmines scattered from New York to Beijing right now, and if the market lands on any one of them, the party will be over.

One major landmine is in Washington, DC: the Federal Reserve Board. The market has already begun to bake in expectations from a second round of quantitative easing, and an unlimited supply of money can dwarf the supply of some commodities. As a result, the Fed’s policies are inciting increased speculative risk, thereby creating a commodity bubble.

Just how much of a bubble? Consider the following:

(1) Gold trading at a record high

(2) Tin trading at a record high

(3) Cotton at a record high

(4) Copper at a 27-month high

(5) Rubber at a 27-month high

(6) Soybean, Corn and Wheat all approaching 2008 record highs

Perhaps not surprisingly, then, inflation is becoming a problem across the globe. India, Australia and Canada all raised interest rates this year, and some voices in China are also calling for a move in rates to address inflation there.

Another landmine? Currency wars. The “exorbitant privilege” the United States holds as the world reserve currency holder is clearly being challenged by China, Russia, Germany and most importantly, by the markets. Too many people take it for granted that the dollar will always be king, but there are very sobering reasons to believe it won’t.

First, it has not always been the world reserve currency. Second, economically buoyant rivals across the globe are calling for a new system. And instead of playing a hand to bringing us back to reality, our government is doing everything it can to keep the music going in the markets, only further irritating China and our other trade partners.

There are more landmines the bulls are hoping to dodge – in fact, the list appears endless: Stimulus tailwinds are now becoming headwinds; the deleveraged consumer; declining home prices and the foreclosure fiasco; bankrupt states and dry pension funds; currency wars; sovereign debt problems; slowing corporate earnings growth; unemployment; health care reform costs; consumer confidence and general economic uncertainty felt by corporations and individuals.

Of course, the bulls do have a few reasons to be hopeful that the music will continue. Gridlock from a Republican Congress could bode well for stocks. Corporate mergers and acquisitions have reached near pre-crisis levels, and the $1.6 trillion in cash on corporate balance sheets will eventually inject a new stimulus into the economy.

But a few positive signs won’t go far enough to dodge the minefield completely. The crowd is screaming buy, but risk management is not about going with the crowd. Doing something – be it dancing or making an investment decision – is not a sound approach. It’s better to be a wallflower while the DJ spins than to fall down with the dancers once the music stops.

Howard Penney is an analyst at Hedgeye, a research firm based in New Haven, Conn.

About the Author
By Howard Penney
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Russian President Vladimir Putin
EconomyRussia
It started with one viral influencer complaining about Russia’s economy. Now a record 60% of Russians are pessimistic about their country’s outlook
By Tristan BoveJune 30, 2026
1 hour ago
Stripe CEO Patrick Collison gestures with his hands as he speaks into a microphone before a congressional committee hearing.
Cryptostablecoins
Stripe, Visa and over 140 other businesses to launch stablecoin to rival Tether and Circle
By Camila Grigera NaónJune 30, 2026
2 hours ago
A woman types into a kiosk at an airport.
Travel & LeisureAviation
‘You can expect prices to be high and stay high’: Domestic airfare is skyrocketing faster than international flight costs, despite using less jet fuel
By Sasha RogelbergJune 30, 2026
3 hours ago
Young worker at desk
SuccessGen Z
Remote-first fintech giant Revolut is making the office compulsory for new Gen Z grads—and they’ll earn flexibility like their peers after one year
By Emma BurleighJune 30, 2026
3 hours ago
mill
InvestingWealth
America added more than 1,200 millionaires per day in 2025, but the heyday of the ‘everyday millionaire’ is already over
By Nick LichtenbergJune 30, 2026
3 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks June 30, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on June 30, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJune 30, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
1 day ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
5 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
3 days ago
'Humanity has chosen to become idiots': This Brown professor switched to take-home exams after a mass shooting and discovered mass cheating
AI
'Humanity has chosen to become idiots': This Brown professor switched to take-home exams after a mass shooting and discovered mass cheating
By Catherina GioinoJune 29, 2026
21 hours ago
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
Environment
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
By Catherina GioinoJune 28, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 29, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 29, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.