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It’s time to talk about the iPod touch

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
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By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 13, 2010, 12:02 PM ET
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The iPhone without a phone now dominates Apple’s aging line of music players



Source: Company reports, Piper Jaffray

Both the iPod nano and the iPod shuffle were, at one time or another, Apple’s (AAPL) best-selling MP3 players. But now, according to Steve Jobs’ September iPod update, it’s the iPod touch — a considerably more expensive device, and one that generates a lot more revenue for the company.

Which makes it all the more curious that Apple — which is relatively open about its unit sales (compared with, say, Amazon and its Kindle) — has never shared its iPod touch numbers with investors. Perhaps next Monday’s quarterly earnings report would be a good time to start.

In the meantime, analysts trying to track iPod touch sales have had to back into them using customer surveys, average selling prices and other tricks. In the chart above we’ve relied on estimates from Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, the only analyst we know who breaks them out.



Most analysts are content to publish overall iPod unit sales. The iPod numbers from the 33 analysts we’ve polled in advance of Apple’s Q4 earnings report range from 8.18 million to 11.3 million, with an average of just under 9.6 million.

Below: Their most recent iPod estimates, alongside their Q3 accuracy ranking as measured on the Deagol scale (see here). We’ll find out who was closest after the closing bell on Oct. 18.

Analyst, affiliationiPods, millionsDate of est.Deagol Q3 ranking
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer11.3010/7/103
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.10.209/14/1028
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross10.009/29/106
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray10.0010/7/1023
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.9.909/28/1018
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity9.8810/7/10
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board9.8510/1/102
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood9.8010/1/1027
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold9.759/28/1024
Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board9.7510/1/108
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist9.7510/7/1010
Horace Dediu, Asymco9.709/28/101
Scott Craig, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch9.6710/8/109
Robert Cihra, Caris & Co.9.649/23/10
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model9.629/29/104
Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board9.609/30/107
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital9.6010/6/1021
Ralph Schackart, William Blair9.6010/6/1019
Doug Reid, Stifel Nicholaus9.519/30/1012
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank9.5010/4/1015
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley9.5010/7/1022
Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.9.509/20/1025
William Fearnley, Janney Capital9.508/25/1014
Alex Gauna, JMP Securities9.4110/6/10
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital9.4110/12/1029
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital9.4010/13/1011
Richard Gardner, Citigroup9.409/1/105
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan9.3410/7/1032
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna9.269/22/1016
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights9.0310/9/1013
Ashok Kumar, Rodman & Renshaw9.0010/6/1031
Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity8.9410/5/1030
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan8.1410/4/1026

. . .
See also:

  • Was this Apple’s $20 billion quarter?
  • Did Apple sell 4 million Macs?
  • How hot was the iPhone in Q4?
  • How many iPads has Apple really sold?
  • How many iPods did Apple sell in Q3?

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

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By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
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