Sen. Susan Collins conceded to Democrat Troy Jackson early Wednesday, ending a 30-year Senate career. Her loss could leave New England without a single Republican in Congress for the first time since the party was founded.
Collins called Jackson shortly after midnight. “It has been the honor of my life to serve the people of Maine in the United States Senate,” she said in a statement from Bangor. “I called Troy Jackson tonight to congratulate him and to assure him that my staff and I will work to ensure a smooth transition.” NBC News projected Jackson the winner, though the Associated Press had not called the race as of 1 a.m. ET.
Jackson told supporters in Portland that he thanked Collins for her service and “wished her and her family well.” He will be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Maine since 1988.
A streak that started with the party
Whether the shutout happens now depends on one race. In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, former Republican Gov. Paul LePage is in a close contest with Democrat Matt Dunlap for the seat of retiring Rep. Jared Golden. AP had not called that race either.
If Dunlap wins, it would break a streak as old as the GOP. Republicans held 38 of New England’s 41 House and Senate seats after their founding in 1854, and their share declined steadily from there. In New Hampshire alone, at least one Republican served in the delegation for 81 straight Congresses before 2017.
The region’s GOP has been shrinking for years. Fortune reported in 2018 that Republicans no longer held any House seats in New England after Golden unseated the last one. Collins has been the only New England Republican in either chamber since. She serves until January, so any shutout would begin when the new Congress is sworn in.
The only Republican who could win
GOP leaders long said Collins was their only path in Maine. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last year there was “one way to elect a Republican in the state of Maine,” and that way was Collins. With Collins likely leaving politics at 73, Axios writes that Republicans may not seriously contest the seat anytime soon.
Collins built her career on running ahead of her party. In 2020, she outran Trump in Maine by 18 percentage points. This year she leaned on seniority. She said in a debate that she had secured $1.5 billion for 672 projects in Maine over five years. About 6 in 10 Maine Senate voters said Collins would do a better job than Jackson at getting federal funding, according to preliminary Voter Poll data.
Distancing from Trump didn’t work
The same data found roughly 6 in 10 voters said Collins was too supportive of Trump. In 2020, half said so.
Collins tried to put space between herself and the president, saying in a debate that she is “not exactly his favorite senator.” But Trump said in an August interview, “I hope she wins.”
His trade war hit Maine directly. Collins publicly opposed tariffs on Canada and won some exemptions, but Jackson said she didn’t do enough as the levies hurt Maine’s forestry, seafood and tourism industries. Two weeks before the vote, Collins announced the administration would release 315,000 barrels of heating oil from the Northeast reserve.
Her allies also stumbled. In October, pro-Collins super PAC Defending Main Street said its vendor mistakenly spent about $25,000 on anti-Jackson ads in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine.
The Bangor Daily News wrote that Collins, who rose by touting her centrism and dealmaking, was toppled by divisive national politics she could no longer navigate.