• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
FinanceEconomy

One Fed Official Says the U.S. Economy is Back to Normal

By
Annalyn Kurtz
Annalyn Kurtz
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Annalyn Kurtz
Annalyn Kurtz
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 30, 2017, 10:21 AM ET

Call it the “Goldilocks economy.” The U.S. economy is not too hot, and not too cold. It’s just right.

Now it’s the Federal Reserve’s job to keep it there, John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed said in a speech in New York, Wednesday.

By his account, the U.S. economy is already back to normal. The Fed’s two key measures—unemployment and prices—are both near the central bank’s goals, and that’s partly why they’ve raised interest rates twice since December.

“We want the porridge to be just right,” Williams said.

So what does the Goldilocks economy look like? Williams predicts the unemployment rate will fall to around 4.5% by the end of the year. (It was already quite low at 4.7% as of February.)

Meanwhile, inflation will reach the Fed’s goal of 2% a year sometime “in the next year or so,” he said.

So if things are so great, why is the Fed taking away some of the easy monetary policy that got it there in the first place? Amid the recession, the Fed not only lowered interest rates to near zero in an attempt to stimulate more spending in the economy, it also bought bonds through several rounds of its so-called “quantitative easing” policies to push rates even lower.

“I’m often asked, ‘Since things are going well, why not just keep our foot on the gas?’ The answer is that lifting it gradually off the pedal prevents the economy from overheating,” Williams said.

Projections revealed at the Fed’s last policymaking meeting two weeks ago showed officials predict the central bank will raise rates a total of three times this year, including the hike announced on March 15. But Williams said he “would not rule out” the possibility that there could be more.

One of Williams’ peers, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren also spoke Wednesday, strongly supporting a total of four rate hikes this year.

“It is important to avoid creating an over-hot economy that could require a more rapid tightening of monetary policy,” Rosengren said.

To be clear, the economy is nowhere near “on fire.” Rather, gross domestic product has been growing at an unimpressive 2% rate over the last few years. Most Fed officials expect that to continue into the near future, despite President Donald Trump’s promises for more rapid 4% growth.

Early Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released revised figures showing GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016. That was slightly stronger than economists had expected, but still signaled a slowdown after the economy had grown at a 3.5% rate in the third quarter.

Neither Williams nor Rosengren are voting members of the central bank’s policymaking committee, the Federal Open Market Committee, this year, but they are given a seat at the table during deliberations. Williams is scheduled to rotate into a voting role on the committee next year.

The Fed’s regional presidents are scheduled to have another chatty day Thursday, with the agenda including speeches by Loretta Mester of Cleveland, Robert Kaplan of Dallas, William Dudley of New York, and Williams again.

About the Author
By Annalyn Kurtz
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

SpaceX’s IPO could be largest in history. Here’s how it compares to previous record-holders
Startups & VentureSpaceX
SpaceX’s IPO could be largest in history. Here’s how it compares to previous record-holders
By Mia OsmonbekovJune 12, 2026
3 minutes ago
Mortgage rates today, June 12, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, June 12, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 12, 2026
6 minutes ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 12, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for June 12, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 12, 2026
6 minutes ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 12, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for June 12, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJune 12, 2026
6 minutes ago
Melania launches Trump Accounts for foster kids — and Democratic governors want no part of it
MPWWhite House
Melania launches Trump Accounts for foster kids — and Democratic governors want no part of it
By Fatima Hussein and The Associated PressJune 12, 2026
7 minutes ago
defense
PoliticsDefense
Trump says Europe freeloads on defense. Britain’s own (former) Defense Secretary just agreed
By Jill Lawless, Danica Kirka and The Associated PressJune 11, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
Energy
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
2 days ago
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
Environment
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
By Catherina GioinoJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
Innovation
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 11, 2026
18 hours ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
4 days ago
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.