Courtesy of Apple

New iPhones and a new Apple TV? For sure. New iPads? Probably not this time.

By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
September 8, 2015

Like everybody else who covers Apple—from the lowliest blogger to the best-paid Wall Street analyst—I take my cues from Mark Gurman, whose rumor round-up last week will either 1) secure his reputation as the premier Apple reporter of our age or 2) prove to be his comeuppance.

Gurman is confidently predicting a 3-ring circus with new iPhones, a new Apple TV and a new 12.9-inch iPad Pro as tent poles. I’m with him for two out of three,

  • iPhone 6S and 6S Plus. Following the every-other-year pattern established with the iPhone 3G and 3GS, Apple is expected to reduce the price of the 6 and 6 Plus by $100 and offer a pair of updates in the same format but with new features: A Force-Touch screen (dubbed 3D Touch, according to Gurman), a less-bendable chassis, a 12-megapixel camera capable of shooting 4K video, a faster A9 processor and a new color option (rose gold).
  • New Apple TV. This is the year, everybody seems to agree, that Steve Jobs’ “hobby” will mature into a full-fledged platform with a new price ($149), a Wii-like motion sensitive controller, voice-controlled universal search and a software developer kit with which thousands of apps will migrate from the small screen in your pocket to the big one in the living room.
  • iPad Pro. Here’s where Gurman and I part company. He’s expecting Apple to use Wednesday’s occasion to unveil the long-rumored iPad Pro with a double-wide screen and optional stylus and keyboard. Unless Apple plans to hold us there for three hours, I think the iPad Pro will probably get its own event.

Extras: Sales updates in the round numbers Apple loves to trot out, a date for the Apple Watch OS update, and a musical guest. I’m still holding out for Taylor Swift.

See also: Seven questions for Mark Gurman.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

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