By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
January 23, 2015

IDC’s “preliminary” estimate 5.75 million Macs shipped in the December quarter looked high to our panel of analysts when it came out on Jan. 13.

It still seems high.

IDC’s guess is bigger than that of 75% of the analysts we’ve heard from so far — 18 professionals and 15 amateurs. It’s bigger even than most of the estimates that came in after Jan. 13.

The numbers did move up a bit, however. They range now from a low of 5.1 million (still BGC’s Colin Gillis) to a high of 5.98 million (StockCharts’ Daya Baren). The mean estimate of 5.58 million represents a 14% increase over the same quarter last year — and is 68,000 higher than the average 10 days ago.

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q1 2015 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday Jan. 27.

Below: The individual analyst’s Q1 2015 estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

You May Like

EDIT POST