Extrapolating from a survey of 1,864 smartphone owners, UBS sees Apple selling 24 million Apple Watches in 2015.
There are several surprises in the survey results issued Monday by UBS’ Steve Milunovich. Of an initial 4,000 smartphone owners drawn evenly from four countries (U.S., U.K., China, Italy):
- Italians were most compliant responders (71%), Americans the least (33%).
- 70% of respondents owned at least one watch, with Americans the most likely not to own (38%), Italians the least (18%).
- 10% of smartphone owners said they were “very likely” to buy a smartwatch in the next 12 months. Another 17% were “somewhat likely.”
- Samsung Gear was the most likely device to be purchased (37%), beating the Apple Watch in every region except China. (See below).
The Samsung Gear is currently the bestselling smartwatch on the market. The Apple Watch is not due out until early next year, and according to a UBS footnote the respondents in their survey weren’t told anything about the device’s features.
Below: Brand preference among likely smartphone buyers.