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FORTUNE — This is the unit sales number that matters most to Apple (AAPL) — the one for the product that accounted for nearly 53% of the company’s total revenue in fiscal Q2.
And despite all the talk of a worldwide slowdown in high-end smartphone sales that followed the launch this spring of Samsung’s Galaxy S4, the consensus among the 45 Apple analysts we’ve heard from so far is that iPhone sales continued to grow — albeit in single digits — in the June quarter.
The average estimate among these 28 Wall Street professionals and 17 amateurs is that Apple will report sales of 27.15 million iPhones for fiscal Q3 2013, up 4.3% from last year’s 26.03 million.
It’s not the 113% growth Apple reported two years ago, or even the 28% growth it reported last year. But considering that the three models Apple is selling — the iPhone 5, iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 — are 9 months, 21 months and 36 months old, respectively, it’s remarkable that sales are growing at all.
Although the average estimates among the congenitally bullish amateurs (27.9 million) and the more conservative pros (26.7 million) were closer than in quarters past, that doesn’t mean that there wasn’t a sizable spread among the individual analysts.
The high estimate of 32 million was submitted by Matt Lew, an independent with the Braeburn Group. The low estimate of 23 million came from Lazard’s Edward Parker.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q3 2013 earnings on July 23.
Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
