Name: What will our power supply look like 20 years from now?
Uploaded: 2015-09-29
Duration: 5 min 18 s
Description: Watch what executives from Google, Edison International, and Sunrun have to say about the future of power from a panel discussion at Fortune Brainstorm E.

[ MUSIC ] Start out by just saying to the panel to take out your crystal balls. Look 20 years in the future and tell us what this power system is going to look like. Lynn, are we all gonna end up in a truly distributed system where people are off the grid and Running off of your panels on the roof. We would love nothing more than to think 20 years out. [ LAUGH ] [ LAUGH ] That would be such a luxury, as you know. We're still here looking at one year or two to see what happens with that investment tax credit. So it's a pleasure to take a moment from the The daily, the day- to- day fighting, to think a little more broadly. So I think what is undeniable is that are wanting distributive energy and want clean energy and want solar. You know, you see overwhelmingly across all political spectrum, all demographics that. People love choice, they love the right to power their own rooftops. And so that trend isn't going away. You see companies like mine growing 100 % year over year. And continuing to expect that for the future. I think what that means certainly is that utilities have to adapt I think what's happening in the relationship today between distributed energy companies and the utilities is similar in what happens in most disruption cycles, which is first, you're sort of ignored and that's what happened with us and with Solar City as we got off the ground, starting in 2007. People sort of thought of residential solar as this small hobbyist Take market. I think then you see the natural reaction is to then, to fight. And I think that we're pretty, pretty deep in that, that cycle right now, where you see some battles with utilities and [ UNKNOWN ] companies being played out across the country. But then I think you see that utilities will become involved, will join. Do you think we're moving to a more distributed system? Do you think it's gonna be a mix of concentrated and distributed? How do you see this playing out? What does have to happen is the grid's gonna become much more dynamic. It's already happening. Load's gonna become more Responsive. We've had a grid that's been basically load is a given, and then generation being deployed to meet that load. It's gonna be much more of a two- way street. So you'll have much more interaction of load, more demand response, more intelligence systems at the home to let you actually. And even the commercial and industrial users will be There'll be much more participation of megawatts, I think, rather than peakers, in how to get there. Because one thing that hasn't come up yet is, you know, we do have to methodically decarbonize. And in order to do that we need to bring on a very broad combination of wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, you need a very large portfolio And the grid has to be much more dynamic, more flexible. And you're not gonna get away from- And so your prediction for 20 years out on the decarbonization, where will we be? Well, let me paint two futures really really quickly. One is if you actually bring that externality in somehow through a carbon tax or some mechanism, I'm not gonna think about it [ CROSSTALK ]. That's about to happen, so move on to the other [ CROSSTALK ]. So move to future number two? [ LAUGH ] Then it'll be one more that'll be more locally mandated, which is more expensive. So we're gonna have our PS, or we're not gonna decarbonize, right? But if we do decarbonize due mandates, you're gonna have to have Forcing more renewables, you're not gonna have as much participation from things like nuclear. It'll be complicated, but at the What's your guess, percentage renewables 20 years out? [ BLANK_AUDIO ] 20 years out, that's 2035. Globally are you? Well let's start with the U. S. Well let's start with California. It's going to be 50 %. It will be 50 % Yeah, clearly, unequivocally. Yeah California will make 50 % but it's part of a larger grid so if you look at the western grid, I don't think it'll be 50 % by then. What is the utility going to? How do you change? What does it look like? Probably the first thing is you better get the lead out. It's gonna change pretty quickly. And I think, from our perspective, if you look back at how the grid got built in the first place, it was really to deliver ubiquitous electric power. It was to make sure that it was going to be affordable, and that above all, it was going to be a reliable system. It was going to be there. That's the tough part of your job. You have to do the reliable piece of it. And so I think we will move rapidly. I think there will be a lot of changes. To me the centerpiece is the distribution system, as we call it, the small wires. It's what connects all the homes and businesses. the industry, probably over the years, has tended to think a little bit more of the bulk power system. How are you going to get big amounts of electricity provided affordably and reliably. But increasingly, I think it'll flip more around the other way, where it's that network, and I use that word Purposely the network that will connect the homes and businesses that's going to be the center piece. [ BLANK_AUDIO ]

Watch what executives from Google, Edison International, and Sunrun have to say about the future of power from a panel discussion at Fortune Brainstorm E.