With the federal funds rate only modestly below the neutral rate, we continue to expect that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years. This view is consistent with participants' projections of appropriate monetary policy. The median projection for the federal funds rate rises to 1. 4 % at the end of next year, 2. 1 % at the end of 2018, and 2. 9 % by the end of 2019. Compared with the projections made in September, the median path for the federal funds rate has been revised of just a quarter of a percentage point. Only a few participants altered their estimate of the longer run normal federal funds rate, although the median edged up to 3 %. Of course the economic outlook is highly uncertain and participants will readjust their assessments of the appropriate paths to the federal funds raid in response to changes to the economic outlook and associated risks. As many observers have noted. Changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. Of course, it is far too early to know how these policies will unfold. Moreover, changes in fiscal policy are only one of the many factors that can influence the outlook and the appropriate course of monetary policy. In making our policy decisions, we will continue as always to assess economic conditions relative to our objectives of maximum employment and 2 % inflation. As I've noted on previous occasions, policy is not on a pre- set course. Finally, we will continue to reinvest proceeds for maturing treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage backed securities. As our statement says, we anticipate continuing this policy until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well underway.

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