Name: The Long Game: Where Vision Meets Capital
Uploaded: 2025-11-17
Duration: 22 min 47 s

In a world addicted to quarterly gains and viral hype, who’s still thinking ten years out? Visionary investors are being forced to rethink what conviction looks like—as AI, climate tech, and new frontiers collide to reshape global markets. Where should capital flow when disruption is the only constant? And what does it take to stay in the game when timelines stretch, valuations swing, and breakthroughs take years to pay off? This session dives into the new calculus of risk, patience, and purpose—where the biggest wins go to those bold enough to bet long when everyone else is chasing short.

The Long Game: Where Vision Meets Capital

Conferences

In a market obsessed with speed, fast gains, fast pivots, fast exits, the real advantage may lie with those who think in decades, not quarters. AI climate breakthroughs and frontier technologies are opening new horizons, but they may only reap rewards for those who remain patient investors. The question isn't just where capital should flow, it's how long you're willing to stay the course. In our next panel, we'll explore where investors are placing their biggest bets across Asia and beyond. Please welcome Doctor Mahuti Jude, Deputy Secretary General of the Government Pension Fund of Thailand, Sandiaga S Uno, co-founder of Saratoga Investtama. And Johnny Joe, managing director of Primavera Capital. They'll be joined by Fortune Finance and crypto editor Jeff John Roberts. Please welcome. Hello and welcome everyone. I know we're in the sleepy part of the afternoon, which is a good thing we have a good topic how to make money. So that will hopefully make sure everyone stays awake for this one. I got some people who know a lot about this, and I thought just to get right into it, let's go with a topic on a lot of people's minds. Are we in an AI bubble? San Diego, do you want to start with that one? Uh, we are only at the start, so if there is some Valuations, uh, sort of like induce bubble that we're gonna take it's basically at the very early stage and some of the companies that are not adopting AI in terms of boosting their revenues and lowering their costs is the one that's gonna hit the bubble. Johnny, what's how are you looking at it? It depends on how you apply the technology. Uh, I think right now it's still very Uh, apply towards a very small limited group of people, uh, who knows the technology, having some sense of the technology, um, but it's never uh across the masses and if you don't apply to the masses, I feel like it's gonna be a huge bubble, but then you, you have hopes that the masses will adopt this technology and made it, um, you know, a universal technology that that could benefit the masses. Yeah, but for investment purposes, are you confident to invest right now or is it better to sit it out? Well, we're always confident to invest right now, otherwise, you know, you will be left behind. But, uh, you know, sometimes you need to be cautious because some people, they, they overpromise and that's an issue. Yeah, well, I'd like to bring you in here too. I think your position is a little bit different because you're managing a pension fund, so I think your risk exposure has got to be a little, little, you know, more conservative. So how are you thinking about AI right now? Well, I think that we have to trade off a risk return, and we still believe that I mean AI or tech stock is still the in the next. 3 to 5 years, I think we will still investing, investing in that sector, even though I mean it is really high for a year and that might be some, uh, I mean taking profit, but in the long run, we believe that tech technology is the support of the military, support of the economy and the superpower are gonna be. I mean raising each other between east and west. So it's gonna be important and then if it's gonna be uh uh adjust the price level down, we are gonna continue to invest. Yeah. And I think one way to look at this too is to look at the past. I mean this isn't the first time we've seen frothy markets, you know, the dot-com boom, it can be the mortgage boom, you know, real estate stuff like that. This is not new, but I think one thing that's key is how to think about it. So you know when you're playing the long game, Johnny, how do you sort of, you know, balance, you know, staying in there and you know, and you know how do you sort of stay steady during these frothy periods? Yeah, it's very tough to play the long game now because everybody is like scrolling through their TikTok when they're doing investments. So when they're having the mindset when they view investors or picking investors, they're like, OK, you need to perform 50% a year, otherwise I would choose a hedge fund or someone else. So it's very hard really for long term investors to prevail, I think. The key for us is to look at the mega trend, and the mega trend right now is one is the AI revolution, as you mentioned, and second is the rise of the global South, and for a lot of countries in the region that could benefit massively from this new wave of technology boom. Yeah, no, I think that's wise, how do you, how do you look at the, and I think it's interesting, but you've got investors with a Tick Tock attention span, but you're trying to invest for a decade, and that's that can't be easy. Are you find some of the same? Yeah, the long game. Well, we are now in November and Our economy is based on consumption, uh, and if you look at one of the months that people would spend a lot of money is uh end of the year, near Christmas break and during Ramadan. So now with the AI, you could already pinpoint uh the data that AI supplied to some of our portfolio companies is saying that 96% of consumers are already preparing. So you have a very ready market and 80% of them plan to shop more than last year and Half, almost 48% already use GNAI um to research for prices and products. So because you know that uh A sense of the where where the market is. When you want to play the long game is you have to go by by data. It has to be data-driven and this Gen AI has created an expert shoppers. So not only that you have to have the quality, but you need like experts convictions, people who review. People who give inputs and when you uh prompt, it, it will come out. So I think long game is not just about patience investing but making sure that you're making the right call. That makes a lot of sense. I want to pick up. On John's point about it is sort of investing in the global South, man, are you bullish? And let's talk about, well, since we're here, let's talk about the ASEAN region, Southeast Asia in particular. Are you bullish on the region as an investment, and what's the best way to get exposure to it if you are? OK, of course, uh, first we have, uh, only domestic tie, but now we diversify into develop market and Years ago we we are diversify to uh emerging market. We believe that I mean whether it's gonna be globalization or globalization, I mean the the East and the West is gonna have the same path, yeah, about the, I mean the the the the the the technology. So, so we have a location, separate location for for developed market and emerging market equity. And also in terms of a private market, we also have a uh a theme investment as well. Uh, so we, we believe we're gonna, we're gonna invest in the uh green and brown investment as well and when they enter to the market, uh, a private equity fund gonna uh. Invest in this team as well, yeah. How are you guys looking at it, bullish, bearish on South Asia? I think When you talk about the engine for growth, uh, Malaysia, in particular in Johor. It's going to be when you, when you look at the long game, it has to be like Uh, Johor for the data center, Indonesia for the green economies, and a lot of the carbon development projects and Vietnam, they represent a triangle of the new supply chain, and this actually is the story of Global South. So, I believe that the, the home of the long game is, is this region. Uh, now, how we We create a partnership, uh, and now you overlay the the AI how the public and private sectors could work together because in the past the the government tend to sort of like make regulations to confuse the entire, uh, I, I can, I, I come from uh government 10 years I spent my time in government and politics. Uh, we don't see this partnership with the private sectors, but now with AI and with the data. I think more and more, I think the sector needs the public-private partnership. Um, I think this region needs good entrepreneurs and for how to define a good entrepreneur for the next decade is really to how to combine AI with the industry we work in. Um, it doesn't matter how traditional it is, but if, if you can make a lot of uh transformation within your industry and based on your own country's sort of characteristics, I made a lot of. Adaptation, I think there will be a lot of good companies coming out of the region, but then if people stay very traditional and believe that, OK, I can just, you know, muddle through and stay behind and. I don't think there's gonna be a lot of great companies in this region, then the, the future is not gonna be great. So it really depends on how entrepreneurs react to the new wave of technology. Yeah, and so how do you get those entrepreneurs though too, because I know it's tempting to say, oh, the government should come in, and the government clearly has a big role, but I've also seen too much government. That's a good way to kind of, you know, sort of, you can, you know, hurt the entrepreneurial sector if the government's too involved. So how do you get that balance? Johnny and stick with you on that one too? Like what do you, as an investor, what do you like to see the governments doing? What do you not like them seeing? What do you not like seeing them doing? Yeah, I think government is always gonna be supportive and there's a, you know, new company and and doing great, right? But I think, uh, in order to breed a new generation of entrepreneurs, uh, you need to have a community and this community needs to be, um, so-called AI native and it's, it's not easy uh you need to find the like-minded people who, you know, believe that this new technology is going to transform every single industry. Uh, and you put them together, give them enough resources, uh, to, to, to breed their company and make sure from -1 to 0 and 0 to 1 they could be smooth enough and then it's the story of themselves trying to uh make, make the business work. Is that how you look at it, Santiago? Um, I think the uncertainty and fallibility, uh, in particular the last, uh, 12 months, uh, is actually great moments of, uh, anxiety, uh, and the knee jerk movement in particular by the governments, uh, when I was at the, at the public side is how you regulate. Uh, more. Well, from the private sectors, uh, that breeds on innovations, it's basically how you could have like a more sandbox approach that the private sectors can can grow through entrepreneurial spirits, taking risks, making more innovations and collaborations and, and proactively looking at At the next long game. So when you going back to your first question, the long game is not about chasing the hype, but the long game is, is actually focusing on this structural uh opportunities, uh, that, that exist. In terms of for us reaching out more to a wider audience, uh, while achieving it with a more efficient and and AI allow us to do it. Um, I think now the I agree with you. Uh, the government should, should take a step back and let this, this whole uh vision on long game uh established. We are still at the start. We're not yet even a quarter in, uh, and let the technology evolve. Yeah, let's stick with the harder topic here, geopolitics. We don't have to get into like specific things or who's wrong, who's right, but I think no one would disagree. Geopolitics, people talk about it a lot more than they did even 3 years ago. I mean, the American political system is looking shaky in some ways. Always, you know, you know, China and Taiwan, there's Russia, you know, but you know, is that something you can think of? I mean, I guess the world's always kind of been on fire to a certain degree, but when you're investing, do you try to hedge that, or do you just, you know, is that something you just kind of really can't think of? How do you think about that, man? Oh, well, I think. Just keep calm and be cool. Actually, I mean, your particular is gonna make disturb everything in the market, so no asset cost can be high. I mean, you have to accept the volatility, uh, anyway, yeah, but when you look at carefully, you will see that. They try to contain the war within the region. They try to uh prevent oil from rising. So most of the market is, is making new high. So if you are still risk averse, you're gonna lose quite a lot. So, so we have to. Turn back and and risk on again and we think that it's gonna be moving on. And on so, but, but, but I mean. Both A tech stock or a goal is going to be really high. You have to prepare that you're going to be taking profit, but, but it's going to be the for the next couple of years that I, that sounds optimistic that the market signals, the market will discipline the governments to calm down. I hope you're right. Is that how you see it, Johnny? Well, I think the same. I feel like, um, Money is important for every country and especially if you are a democratic country, uh, you need to deliver for your constituents and, um, so I think you know you just need to find where the value is, uh, rather than say, OK, geopolitics is gonna. Limit you, uh, by, by and large. I don't believe it actually. The the last decade, the whole geopolitical play has always been there, uh, from different trade wars and this and that, but the value is still there, right? Yeah, I guess that's a long game. Um, let's, uh, I, I can't help it because I write a lot about finance and also Bitcoin and commodities, so I'd be curious. I'm gonna put you guys on the spot, and you have to pick one. Are you more bullish on Bitcoin or gold? Goal I think in the long game that I have, not that I'm Also invested in gold companies, uh, gold, I could understand. Uh, I'm Not that smart and intelligent to understand crypto yet, but I'm studying from my daughter's friend. So I believe that uh gold has more like fundamentals because it is uh still the, it has a character that people understand, but crypto more and more now people, Gen Z and probably Gen Alpha would be more familiar with than the gold, which is a thing of the past. Um, but going back to AI, I think more and more companies now taking the plunge early, um. And crypto, uh, it is also educational if you take the plunge early and try to understand it and make allocations based on the education value out of it, um. And for us as a company that don't go into funding cycle anymore, uh, because we have sort of like a permanent capital, we could take more of a long game, taking our time in terms of building a strong AI game, uh, invest in people. Invest in a system that rewards uh strategy that could show um a good sustainable return 5, 1015 years down the road. And now because of AI we need to keep our relationship direct, uh, no longer with us. I, I do want to stay, I think your points are valid, but I do want to stay on the gold Bitcoin question. You gave me a very definitive answer. You're, you're a gold man. How about you, man? What's your, your, uh, well, you have to answer one or the other. Well, uh, actually, personally I, I like both, but as government pension fund, I'll say go. If you're running a pension. Well, yeah, I think in in the long run, I mean there are turmoil around the world, so central bank have to accumulate gold because they are worried about the dedollarization as well. So go and this year we review our SAA. Gold used to be a commodity, but now we separate to another asset class which is a defensive because you know we hedge the terror risk from geopolitical risk. Yeah, makes sense. Um, it sounds like you like both, but you know, if you're running a pension, probably the gold, OK, um, how about you, Johnny? What's if you had to pick one or the other? I'm bullish on neither neither. I will pick. Like a currency that is based on electricity generation, I feel like everything will be based on electricity for the next decades to come, whether it's AI or whatever. So if you put a bullet in my head and say you definitely need to choose, and I'll probably choose Bitcoin because it has the potential to be like a proxy for electricity-based currency, but, uh, if Bitcoin doesn't go that way, then I think neither of them will be successful as the asset class going into the. Next 10 to 20 years to come. I think it's it's a very interesting answer. You're right, because we were talking about that last night. Everything electricity used to be the most boring investment. Utilities were a boring stock and now it's like they're they're they're very hot. But just for this region here too, what if you had to invest in the energy sector, are you guys, you know, long on coal or you know what, what is, you know, how do we solve this problem of getting enough electricity? How do you think about that, man? Oh, well, I mean, as an institution investor, we apply, I mean ESG and we announced that a net zero target in 2050. So I mean coal is the industry that we try to reduce our portion. Yeah, alternative energy. I mean those kind of sectors that we're going to move into new and renewable energy, um, solar. Geothermal, uh, and, and basically now we have an emergence of uh biomass and like I said earlier that you want to keep the relationship uh very close because Southeast Asia is home of uh the green economy. So when you keep Your relationship direct to uh all this uh exposures is going to be make it very, very simple, and I think simplicity wins when you talk about electricity and and energy supply. Yeah, when we talk about the green economy, it's not just making the wind turbines or the solar panels, right? It could be related to, uh, construction materials because in the past and all these constructions made, uh, is, is not very energy efficient and then, you know, going into the next decade if we made new houses or new uh uh sort of office buildings can can that be incorporated into the story, right, um, and I think that is huge actually in terms of from a. Um, from a commercial perspective, so we're not just looking at, you know, green energy itself, but the whole economy needs to be aware of the, you know, making it green and energy efficient. That that's interesting because you're all bullish on green energy, yeah, because you know in the US right now there's been a backlash against it, but it sounds like you guys are all, you know, I guess in playing the long game that no one's denying that's where it's going. Um, let's finish up on an optimistic note. Tell me at one sector, and you can't say AI, Name another sector that you are optimistic about for investing over a 10 year period. You can start on. You only have 10 seconds, we're out of time here. So, I think I like equity. I mean in general equity, yeah, because uh GM and the bond and interest rate is going to be low for for for long, so only, I mean we have to accept volatility and but we review a long term risk in the, in the long term. So, so long term you bullish equities green economies across the board and asset class and also healthcare. Green Economies and healthcare and uh take us home, Johnny, what's your, what are you here? So one man company. I'm investing a lot of one-man companies, one man companies, yeah, startups. OK, yeah, great, uh, great source of answers. OK, please give our panelists a hand. Thanks very much. Thank you.