Name: Fact or Fiction: Black Friday Edition
Uploaded: 2015-11-20
Duration: 6 min 57 s
Description: Will Cyber Monday be bigger than Black Friday?

[ MUSIC ] The ads are everywhere. The deals look amazing, but when push comes to shove, how many people will go shopping on black Friday actually? We've assembled quite a crew here to dig in to retail's big day in more detail. Jessie Tran is a VP at the International Council of Shopping Centers Susie Popick is Associate Editor at Money. And from Fortune, Senior Writer Beth Coick and Writer John Kell. Welcome, guys, we have a quick amount of time and I'm gonna tell you the rules. I'm gonna read five questions to you and you are responsible for either saying fact or fiction, do you believe it or not? Question number one, you ready? Ready. Black Friday is as important as ever to retailers. Fact or fiction? Wow, unanimous. Jesse, let's start with you. Why do you say that? I say fiction because, actually what we've seen is that there's a spreading out across the weekend. You're getting a lot of share coming into Thanksgiving and then, actually Saturday and Sunday are taking a nice share as well. So, we're actually seeing a spreading out across of Black Friday. We're seeing a spreading out across the entire holiday season and, in fact, across the entire retail calendar. So while it's not as important, it's still the most important day, but technically fiction. John, would you agree with that? Completely agree. I think door busters, which we're used to seeing a lot of video footage of, are very important to that small group of people. But a lot of other people have become smart about shopping deals throughout the season. OK, I'd agree. I'd say fiction. I would say though that the sales Are going, last year's sales were declining for the year before, and it was the second year in a row. So we'll have to see what happens this year. Next question. The backlash against black Friday is real, and could become a problem for retailers. Fact or fiction? Fiction and fact. Beth, let's start with you. Why? I think that it is less of a backlash and more of a boon for retailers who say that they're not gonna open their stores on Black Friday. So, you saw a great press for REI when they said they were gonna stay closed. So, I think Is not necessarily a backlash but a real positive for stores that say they're going to stay closed. Okay, it does seem like a pretty big deal that a company would come out and say that though, John. You said fact so ...>> But some of the apparel retailers have had some really bad sales this year and part of that is there has been some thought that people are spending more money on Experiences, dining, going out, vacations, things that look great on Instagram or other social media. And so I think that maybe there's just less interest in just buying in general. So you're the only one who said fact. I think that's a fact. But you guys all think it's fiction. I think that's really interesting. No backlash. Or nuanced backlash. Nuanced backlash. Okay, moving on. You'll miss the best deals of the season if you skip Black Friday, fact or fiction? Fiction, unanimous again. You guys are all in agreement. Susie, why do you say that? Studies have shown that the deals on Black Friday, on average, only save you about, less than 5 %. And the best shopping day, by far, is either, depending on who you ask, Thanksgiving day, if you wanna sneak out of dinner early Or actually December 18th, which happens to also be free shipping day. So there are plenty of other options in all of November, Amazon and Walmart have deals all of November and December and most retailers are doing the same. And Jesse, you agree but why? Yeah, I would say that definitely because what we're seeing is with that lengthening of the season, consumers are far savvier. So they're out there and they're You know, sussing out deals at a much greater rate and retailers have caught up, so they're understood that now. So the retailers know that they need to bring deals throughout the entire season because we know that we saw 66 % of people have already started their holiday shopping only 7 % are gonna be complete by Thanksgiving. So that means there's a huge amount of shopping left to be done Post Black Friday, retailers are gonna have some great deals out there afterwards. I'd say, I find the deal comparison and the messaging and the tools and everything completely intimidating. I actually black it all out and I just say, what do I want to get and what's the easiest place for me to get it. Anyway, that's another story. Next question, Black Friday's big winners are toy stores and big- box retailers, fact or fiction? Interesting. Seems like they're a little puzzled by this one all of you. Okay a little bit split. Beth let's start with you, fiction. I think that we're seeing more and more people going online and again, I do think that there's a little bit of hysteria around door busters. Not necessarily People are getting smarter about how they shop, buying online, planning ahead, so I don't think we're gonna see the same amount of victory for some of these players that we have in the past. Now Susie, you said fact with the big box and the toy stores. Well, projecting, projected shopping is actually, or retail sales are supposed to be higher this year based both on retail surveys but also consumer study's. So I mean at least this year certainly maybe not last Friday but this season sales are expected to rise. Well in terms of the categories it's actually fiction. We had some four square foot traffic data which analyses millions of phones and where they go. The biggest winners on Black Friday are electronic stores, clothing shops, and home improvement stores. Where as Super Saturday tends to do well for toy stores and department stores. Very interesting. Moving on. Last question. Spending on Cyber Monday will overshadow Black Friday. Facts or fiction? Okay. Let's see. John. Why do you say fiction? Last year, comScore estimated that Cyber Monday sales were about $ 2 billion. And on Black Friday Just cyber sales alone were 1. 5 billion. So that just shows you that Black Friday is way bigger and will continue to be much bigger for the foreseeable future. Right, but, Suzie. But the proportion is changing. More than 50 % of people said that they were considering Looking for deals online and not even on Cyber Monday but on Black Friday as well. Yeah, I mean I think, and just to get back to that point, I think I would have to disagree with a lot of the sort of hysteria around online sales. Remember in this country only seven percent of sales Retail sales actually occur on line. Right. 93 % are happening in physical stores. So in reality, yes, I love that point about com score, Black Friday almost does as much volume from an online basis, but actually The thing to really consider in this is just how influential digital channels are on physical store sales. Right. 80 % of our consumers told us they're going to use their mobile device while they're shopping in a physical store. They're going to buy it in the store, but they've done all their research on that mobile device. So online is really a great research tool, and an influential factor on in store sales. Interesting. See, I would say you have to look at the growth. So online is going like this, and sales are going like [ CROSSTALK ] Unfortunately, The rate of growth is declining in online sales. Okay .>> So why they're taking a bigger market share, that rate is actually going down. Good point. Jesse you're a good player, thank you for joining us and thanks to every body for being here, and happy shopping of course ,. All right. You've heard the experts' take on Black Friday, but what do average shoppers have to say? We hit the streets, and the mall to find out. [ MUSIC ]

Will Cyber Monday be bigger than Black Friday?