Name: Dimon: Road back to normal 'scary'
Uploaded: 2014-04-09
Duration: 3 min 44 s
Description: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says that 'as we go back to normal it's going to be scary' at the Fortune Global Forum in Chengdu, China.

What we keep hearing and reading is that in fact, banks would love to be lending more, but the demand sometimes isn't there. What trends are you seeing in that now? Right. Let me just give a little bigger picture first. The things that are not changing, technology is, is. Just driving change everywhere. It has been for centuries and will continue. It's faster. Talent. Always a fight for talent. The market. If you actually look at the growth in the market that drives banking services, it's growing like this. I mean if you took a number of multi nationals, amount of trade, GDPs of the world, high net worth of the world. So forget the, people are overreacting of the [ INAUDIBLE ] of the market. The real growth is like this and the hard thing for us is to manage through the [ INAUDIBLE ] of the market. And look at credit, you've got to look at everything public and private, it's wide open, you know, particularly in the United States. I think there's some pressure in Europe but the United States is wide open, you know I think people get credit in China, et cetera, so the main thing, the real difference to me. Yeah. And I think, I'm going to say it's a broad issue and then it's very narrow. Government's role has changed dramatically since the crisis, kind of, globally. Yeah. And Government's, and the best example is Europe where, you know, to me, it remains to be seen, how this is all going to sort out. What's the role of government? What problems can they make? What can they accomplish? What can't they accomplish? What are they over promised which is becoming common and then specific for banks is both I would say regulation but also the ruled is managing interest rates in way that hasn't really happened since World War two. The central banks, the world wide the United States Central Bank set the ten year bond rate and it was 2. 5 %. For eight or nine or ten years. Right. And so, th, that's unique. I mean we're all struggling with wha, what's a different world when central banks or are managing interest rates. Right. You know the market still sets rate for a lot of different things. But a lot of these separate central banks do. Right. And, so the question everyone would like to hear your views on is what do you expect to happen there? I mean they're so close to zero. Rates are so close to zero. Almost globally, that it is an extraordinary situation. When is it gonna change? So let me, let me start by saying, I think what the Fed did, and some of the central banks it worked. So I give them credit. Right. You know, they didn't know exactly during the crisis, we had a crisis, we need to make changes. But you know, America's growing, home prices are up, [ UNKNOWN ] prices are up, the GDP's going 2 % plus. It should be more. The world, you know, China's been growing, and you could argue should be more. Europe is kind of flat lined, but y, you would argue it could have been worse. So it's kind of worked. Then there's this issue about removing it. Right. And, you know, obviously, first of all, I think we're all, we all should hope for a normalization of interest rates. Right. That's a good thing. The question is with the circumstances when it happens. Right. So, to me the bookends are. It's really working, America's growing 3 or 4 %. We're adding all the time, everyone is making money, prices are up and the Fed, you know, stops buying, maybe you start selling, you're not gonna care. It will be okay. Right. This [ UNKNOWN ] out there. The circumstance where you're in a sustained recession with, you know, possibly with inflation like that causes disaster. In any event, I think you should expect as we go back to normal it's gonna be scary, and it's gonna be kind of volatile. And everybody's gonna be looking at every word the Fed says and trying to, and markets remember don't, markets, if you sold the markets, A, B, and C are gonna happen, they will happen a lot differently than you expect. Right. So that's, so there will be volatility. After World War II which is the only example I know of ,. It wasn't till like 1950 where they let 10- year bond rates go. A lot of volatility. Markets were up and down. GDP was up and down, but growth took off after World War Two. So I, I don't think it's right for all those people to say, it's going to be a disaster. That's, I think that's probably excessive.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says that &#039;as we go back to normal it&#039;s going to be scary&#039; at the Fortune Global Forum in Chengdu, China.