The world is entering a period of profound change in global trade. As major economies revisit long-standing agreements, nations are seeking new markets and partnerships. Protectionist trends are testing traditional alliances, while AI and digital commerce are reshaping trade faster than regulations can adapt. How can the World Trade Organization best adapt to this new reality? In this conversation, it’s Director-General Dr.Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, discusses the reforms needed to strengthen the organization’s role, the frameworks required for digital trade, and whether multilateral cooperation can endure in an increasingly complex global economy.
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization
In Conversation with: Ellie Austin, Fortune

Closing Conversation: Global Trade in Transition

Conferences

So thank you so much for being here. Now I think it's safe to say that you've probably had quite a busy and eventful year, given everything that's been happening in global trade. Um, you said to me backstage that the thing that people want to know when they see you is what's going on. So let's start there. What on earth is happening with global trade? What are the challenges, and maybe where do you see some bright spots? Well, thank you so much and good afternoon, everyone, or good evening. I think it may be on the statement of the century to say that global trade is facing the greatest disruption in 80 years. So that disruption is enormous and of course it's hit at the um. Global trading rules that everyone, all the traders and now everyone knows of the WTO, the most favored nation rules. So prior to the tariffs, 80% of world trade was on WTO MFN rules, and now it's come down. Our latest analysis shows 72% of world trade is going on on WTO rules, but look at that number. It's come down, but it's 72%, and when we looked at it very carefully, we were surprised and pleased at the resilience of the system. So it means that system built over eight decades is showing a great deal of resilience. So it's it's not. Knocked, battered, bruised, but still standing. But playing devil's advocate for a second, if one of the world's or the world's largest economy, the US, is essentially ignoring WTO rules, can the multilateral system still function? It is functioning, of course it's functioning not in the way it used to function before, but we also must know that the US is 13% of total world imports, so 87% of that trade is going on outside the US. The good news is that we avoided what happened in the 1930s. We've been there before, where there were tit for tat tariffs, protectionism that led to the Great Depression. And then, you know, the Second World War came and it was catastrophic and this system was built. What we see now. It's the fact that we've talked to their members to avoid a tit for tat. They've not done that. I'm very proud of them. 166 members of the WTO. Second, they're all still trading with themselves, mostly on WTO rules. Some of them have filed disputes against the US, I believe, absolutely, which is fine. I mean, the US remains a member of the system, a very treasured member, and we value it. And we have mechanisms where if you have a dispute with another member, you bring it. It's called your request for consultations, and that's that's a dispute process. But let me tell you this the fact that 72% of world trade goes on on WTO's terms is no reason for complacency. Far from it. I think that a lot of the criticisms made by the US of the system are valid. I share them. And I think that this is a time to use this opportunity of seeing some resilience to reform. So what's at the top of your list to reform maybe on that? Give me, give me number one. OK, maybe I'll give you two. Well, one of the things to reform, to look at is a very treasured consensus decision making system. Many multilaterals have that, but in WTA practice as unanimity. And when you need unanimity from 166 members in order to make a decision, sometimes you really get stuck. So how do we practice consensus in an efficient way that will enable us to make new agreements and make decisions more quickly than before? And what's the answer to that because I know that I can't give the answer now. The members have to work at it. OK, it's up to them to come up with the answer. Another is looking at lots of complaints about unfair trading practices, you know, the protectionism that has been creeping into the system even before the US took the unilateral actions. We need to look at all of that lack of transparency in reporting because the WTO is about transparent reporting so members can know what trade practices of other members are when they give subsidies and when they don't. And if you don't have a level playing field and and practices are not seen to be fair, then it really does undermine the system. So developing countries also feel that the system does not work as well for them. They are not as well integrated. They haven't benefited enough. So those are things we need to look at. Uh, in the list of reforms that we'll do so that's quite a to do list, that's a pretty hefty to do list. I was going to ask you about your native Nigeria and what the view of the WTO is in Nigeria, for example? Well, As let me before I took this job, WTO was not a household word. It's not there, not in any country, you know. WTO is one of these organizations that has the rules that makes world trade work, but it's like your plumbing. You don't think of it until a pipe breaks. You just take it for granted. So everybody takes the WTO for granted and world trade rules. But I tell you, if the system, if the organization was not there with these basic rules, those who trade, businessmen and women. No, there would be chaos because beyond tariffs, there's some fundamental rules like how your goods are valued, agreements, how your goods are valued when they arrive, intellectual property rules, you know, last year, over $500 billion was was earned through payments or patents and intellectual property. The agreement is outside the WTO $144 billion. Of that went to the US 25% of that of the whole amount went to the EU and the rest of the rest of the world. These are not trivial amounts. So there's a lot going on at the W2 beyond tariffs that business people value. I have no doubt. I guess some people would say you speak so eloquently about rules. If a country like the US can disobey the rules and they don't seem to be any huge consequences, Is the point of the rules in the first place? What would your response be to that? My response would be number one, if one member decides not to obey the rules, the others are some of them you said are bringing the US, they can do that, but members, other members value the rules and the fact that they themselves are keeping to those rules stays volumes. OK, can I just tell you? Out of my 166 members, 142 of them have trade to GDP ratios north of 50%, which means that trade matters a lot. The US trade to GDP is 25%. So if the US can exist, you know, within based on domestic demand, and you know it can pretty much do a lot of things by itself. Maybe China is less than 30%, but there are 142 countries who Really depend on trade and need the rules. You can't make an agreement with every single country. So you need multilateral rules and a level and a system that provides stability and predictability. They themselves, what is very heartening now is that members in this trouble have seen how they value the WTO. In every crisis, there's always opportunity. And the opportunities that members are now seeing just how much they value this and what they need to do and what we need to do is pursue reforms. All those criticisms leveled by the US and others, many of which are valid. This is the time to reform the organization. And make it fit for the 21st century, and that's what we're doing. And on the subject of innovation and reforms, roughly 40% of global trade this year came from AI related products, semiconductors, telecoms, things like that. How is the WTO thinking about establishing global standards for digital trade and AI supply chains so that number one, there are regulations in place, and number. To certain economies aren't left behind. Well, I think I'm glad you mentioned this, you know, it's very exciting. There are actually exciting things happening in trade, and that's why I want us to get on with the reforms so we can seize these opportunities. Services trade is growing. We projected goods trade to grow at 2.4% this year. Services trade is growing at twice that. Digitally delivered services trade is growing at. and it's worth almost $5 trillion. That's very exciting. Green trade is worth almost $2 trillion. So there are areas of trade and then you bring in AI and what we're seeing now, we just did a study looking at AI is that if AI AI can reduce trade costs dramatically, which helps to increase the value of trade, the AI will also change the nature of products traded. And all of this makes it very, very exciting to see what the impact is going to be and the rules. We are negotiating rules for e-commerce, for digital trade at the WTO, with with your members, with our member a group, a subset of the members, almost 100 of them have come together to negotiate the e-commerce agreement. And what's the timeline for when we could see that agreement? Well, it's in two parts. The first phase is almost complete, and I hope it will come into being by our next ministerial conference, which is March 2026, and then they will commence with the second phase. So we're really looking forward to seeing that. Now you are the first woman and the first African to lead the WTO in its 30 year history. Why do you think it took so long to achieve those two very important milestones? I'm not the right person. Go and ask all the men. What do you think they would say? What do you think they would say? No, but first I want to say, look, when I hear this first woman, first African, I have very mixed feelings. When I was doing the interview, I think I was impertinent enough to say the W2 at this point in time needs the best person. To lead it and the best person to lead the reforms. You know, if that person is a woman and the person is African, that's fine. And I said, I think I am the best person because I'm bringing different thinking and a different approach. So, so I'm glad to be first woman, first African, but I think it the key issue is who has What it takes to be able to take the organization to another level and that's the important thing and I think women have had what it takes. So I don't know why they have not been able. I mean, with the number of talented women experts in trade I meet around the world, I just wondered why they haven't been given the chance and the opportunity or sometimes you also have to take the risk. Um, you know, when we did the interview, there were 8 candidates from 80s for my job 5 years, 4.5 years ago, and you were being interviewed practically in front of the whole world, OK, because there were 166 minutes tuning and it was broadcast and so if you failed, the whole world would know about it. And there are not many people, you know, when you apply for a job, if you don't get it, it's your business. You can just go and say whatever you like. But when you apply for a job and you don't get it and the whole world knows about it, it's a little daunting, isn't it? Very daunting. So maybe many people don't want to go through that process. It was a very competitive process. So final question, you said sometimes you have to take the risks to be the first person to achieve something. What would you characterize as some of the biggest risks you've taken in your career to get to where you are today? Oh. I guess I'm a risk taker and a masochist. Look at what is happening to World Trade. Looks like whenever there's a tough job, I left a very nice job at the World Bank where I was managing director, the #2 position to go and be finance minister in my country and eventually Foreign Minister, the first woman also, that was a risk. I could have just stayed where I was and having my salary, I took her, I don't know, whatever. 50 more than that 70 or 80% salary cut left my family went back home because we're living in Washington. So go and do it, but what was the motivation? You have to ask yourself what are you about? And I've always wanted to serve. I was brought up to know that service to others, you don't get educated just for yourself, but to others. So that's been at the back of my mind. So I considered it an honor and a privilege to be able to serve my country. That's why I went back and being finance minister is not, no one likes a finance minister, OK. No one likes you, not even your boss sometimes, because you have to say no, so it's not a fun job. But it's a job you're absolutely committed to and one that gives you policy levers to move the economy, and we did, we tripled the growth rate during the time I was in office. Secondly, WTO, I'm not sure I knew most people want my job now. Uh, but it's also an honor and a privilege, no matter how tough it is, because what are we trying to do? We're really trying to materially reform an organization that is very important to world trade. You cannot have global growth without global trade growth, OK? The world world GDP is 111 trillion and world trade is the. 2 trillion. OK, it's almost 30% of that. There's no way you can grow world GDP without growing trade. So this is a commitment to make the organization work better so we can push global growth. Well, I hope on behalf of all of us that you achieved that. That's a very galvanizing note to end on. Dr. Ngozi, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. OK. Hi everyone. Well, that brings the Fortune Global Forum to a conclusion, our 2025 event. I want to thank all of you for coming here today. I especially want to thank our speakers. I think the power of this is the village green that we are able to create for honest. A for candid insights that you share with each other and also share with our global audience, and it would not be possible if we did not have partners who enable us to do this. 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