Name: When Policy Moves Markets
Uploaded: 2025-10-28
Duration: 20 min 13 s

Policy has increasingly become a big influence on corporate strategy. Government decisions on trade, investment, and technology are forcing business leaders to act quickly and decisively with respect to supply chains, manufacturing hubs, and capital flows. How can CEOs stay ahead when policy, not just market forces, are reshaping the bounds of global business? Business leaders share their insights on how to find common ground between public and private priorities.

When Policy Moves Markets

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I'm, I'm curious. I almost, I'm not sure if you were listening to what the Chancellor said, but I feel like I should start with you, Merritt. You've worked in government. I mean, how are we how are the Western democracies doing? Any thoughts coming out of what the because there are only so many policy levers that a lot of governments have at this point. Well, and thanks for joining us. Well, thank you for for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. You know, we, we all know that we're in a period of, of what the Singapore president calls radical uncertainty, and there's more unpredictability now than in most periods in the post-war period, um, and we are in a period where I think we're in a kind of interregnum between what I think, uh, will be. Uh, greater clarity going forward, but how long this period will last is very uncertain. And so the surprising thing actually, in light of the policy impacts on technology, on trade, on investment, on energy, is how resilient. A trade has actually been so despite policies, despite the policies you're seeing, I think we fragmentation is the term you're using here. I think it's the right term. I think reregulation, re-globalization rather than massive deglobalization, I think is what's happening. So you're seeing more regional concentrations of trade, and I think you're seeing. New experiments being born in this environment. In this, I think you know there are some interesting important shifts underway. Well, let's get to that in a second because Christian, you operate across so many different markets. Few people see firsthand the impact of different policies. How would you describe how, let's just say the Westwrit large is doing right now? Well, it's probably a challenging time for Western liberal democracies. They have developed into an environment where their political process is very slow. They, they take their time on decision making and, and obviously also especially within Europe um. They were trying to export their moral compass to the world, but the world is not really waiting for that moral compass. And so I guess these Western democracies have to some degree reinvent themselves if they want to stay competitive because other countries just have learned to move along. Faster and more decisively and that's what we are seeing when you look at the growth rates in the world. How is it impacting your decision making when you're talking about some of these policy shifts? Is it making you not want to do business in certain places? I mean, you're real estate, so that's about as fixed asset as you can get. Sure, um, well, I mean, when we look at where the growth is in the world, we continue to see tremendous growth rates in the US, but then outside of the US it's, it's very much in this region, most notable here in the kingdom, but, but also in the wider Mina region, and then it's, it's very much in India, uh, and then it kind of. Gets much slower. Obviously there are some particular challenges around the real estate market in in China which we are feeling very much so, but uh what is what is quite striking is, is the very uh low growth environment in in Europe and uh slightly better in the UK but on the continent in Europe it's very, very. You think the Chancellor, um, those types of initiatives when we look at spending cuts, tax hikes, you know, there's there's only so many levers one can use. What advice. You have to leaders like her. How about that? We'll keep it generic, and then I'll move to Fred. It's always, it's always very easy to provide democratically elected leaders with advice. They don't have the freedom to take maybe the decisions they think they are right because of that democratic environment. The trouble is that all of them, including the UK, find it very difficult to take the necessary structural reforms to make those liberal democracies competitive again. And so that's the, that's the, that's easier said than done, but they have to take those structural reforms elected, otherwise it doesn't work out. Well, let me move to China, um Fred, nice to see you, and I think I'm curious about a few people know China better, I think, than you from the various vantage points of how you've engaged in that market. Give me some sense of what you're seeing on the policy front, and obviously it's been a tough year, and all eyes, I think, are on China right now because we're waiting to see what comes out of the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. So can you give us a lay of the land from where you sit? Yeah, sure, so China actually, you know, Uh, I would say vision has been a bastion of stability in the in a very chaotic world we are in right now, uh, because the last few years the authorities in China have been much more consistent and, and, uh, in terms of, uh, pro-growth, uh, economic policy agenda, pro-innovation to unleash the. Uh, innovative power of highly educated, highly entrepreneur, uh, population, particularly with the STEM, uh, engineers and the founders, uh, with in AI robotics and, you know, clean energy transition, um. And of course, you know, uh, with this, uh, trade war, China is definitely, uh, be the brand, you know, because China is the biggest trading economy and biggest export still, um, so the escalation between Washington and Beijing on the t and the, you know, uh, export control definitely has created a lot of uh headwinds, um, but I'm hopeful, uh, the summit. Between President Trump and President Xi, uh, I could do like to have a breakthrough because at the end of the day, um, you know, the two biggest economies need to find a way to, uh, have kind of stability governing the relationship between the two countries, but also make the rest of the world in a much better place. So I think the, uh, discussions in Kuala Lumpur were quite uh fruitful and some. Quite optimistic, uh, the summit will actually, uh, deliver a deal that provides some more clarity, more certainty, more stability, uh, for trade, for investment flows, and importantly for technology. You're optimistic about a deal as a business leader, and if you can weigh in, what is the optimal deal at this point? And let's, I just want to stay on China for a second then move to the Middle East. Um, because, you know, there's a lot of negotiation back and forth. We're already seeing this realignment that you talked about. What do you think is, is success coming out of this right now in terms of what business leaders can expect? I think it's some clarity. First of all, the tariff regime need not be like crazy insane, like 100% plus tariff that's going to kill, you know, trade and kill the world economy at large. So I think it's a, uh, kind of lower. I would say maybe somewhere 15 max 25% is kind of long term t regime which is not ideal compared to before, but I think business can do. Uh, with it #1, 2, in terms of export control regime and the organ some more reasonable, right? So not the crossboard, uh, band or curb, but the selective, highly, highly selective in this old notion of, you know, uh, like, uh, uh, small yard high fence, right, you know, which hopefully that's the case right now when we talk about the export control like semiconductors. You know, everything is from the princes of national security, but you know, we all know 99% and the more consumption of such as civil in either use right you know for industrial and consumer finance and so on and so forth, maybe 1% is for defense military. So you take care of that part, but leave most of the normal civilian trade ongoing and and of course in return, China also make sure to the world, you know, China. reliable supply of rare earth, which is underpinned so many important industries around the world, right? So I think, you know, if both sides come to that, and I think it will be in a much better place. And we'll be taking some questions from the audience. So if you have them, just raise your hands. We've got mic runners here. Few people know consumption better than Mastercard, and I'd be remiss not to go to your role as chair of the Mastercard Foundation, also a professor as well. Talk about, you know, increasing consumption is always something that is key in the US in every market. How do you feel? I mean, there's a lot of uncertainty about the US, but let's look at the global landscape because I think you get that perspective at Mastercard. Where are you seeing effective strategies to drive consumption? Well, uh, I chair the board, not the foundation. I know I mean the board and, um, uh, I would just say that, uh, what, what we're seeing is that the American consumer is holding up, uh, uh, so, uh, you know, the US economy is, is actually showing tremendous resilience you think the little lines that we're worried about, yes, there are plenty of things that one needs to watch and, and there is this embedded. Certainty associated with tariff policies. As you know, you know, when they were first announced, the markets reacted, but once they were paused and negotiations commenced, there's been, I think, uh, um. Certain embedded uncertainty but also much more clarity and deals of agreements are being reached. So I think the American consumer for various reasons, the vitality of the economy is still revealing itself, and there are pockets of growth all over the world. So I would say that, you know, Mastercard as a company is um. You know, driving innovation in, uh, markets, it's bringing its digital technologies to further financial inclusion, um, and, um, and there is innovation and growth in many places in the world. Well, it feels like AI is obviously. One of the key drivers and that's something that we're looking to for where different countries will succeed, etc. I want to put us we're all here in Riyadh right now. This is obviously a region that has a lot of growth. um I want Christian, tell me a little bit. You know, when you look at this part of the world and how they're doing in terms of creating the conditions for you to want to double down or leave whatever you decide, um, how is it comparing to the other markets that you look at in terms of where you put your investments and how you Grow the business. Well, the political environment here allows them to move very fast. It's it's they have the ability to decide top down what's good for the country's development, and that's what they are doing. I mean, when you come to Saudi on a regular basis, you see the progress which has happened, especially over the last 1012 years. It's absolutely amazing. And we can have easy access here to the political leadership and discuss what's needed to further progress. What would be your advice? What's needed to further progress? Well, I guess we have, you know, they're working very hard on, on the infrastructure side, but as, as the economy is growing fast and the amount of population, especially here in Riyadh, is, is growing very fast. There's still more work on the infrastructure, especially with regards to public transport. They're obviously. Having massive plans around the expansion of the airport, which is very, very important. We heard that earlier on the panel direct connections to the rest of the world and then helping companies to deal with the necessary need for talent here. I mean, as the economy is growing so much, we need a lot of talented people and they need to come and live here in Riad. Where are you most stressed in terms of finding and training talent worldwide? Well, there are many, there are different issues around talent. Sometimes it's the issue of complacency. Here's the issue of the lack of available talent. So we have to train a lot of people, um, a lot of new services are coming to this country and, and so that's for a fast growing company like we are in this region, that is a major challenge for us. to get enough people and we obviously want to train the locals and and that's where we work in combination with the government to train them, build academies so that we have enough talent going forward. So Fred, I want to say in this region, but also I do think that talent question is obviously a key one, as is technology so. You know, as an investor, as somebody who has insight into also this shifting, you know, world order, give me some sense as to, you know, how are you finding the talent picture shifting and how is that driving decision making because obviously demographics are not in China's favor. They are the Middle East's favor. We talked about Africa yesterday. That's obviously a very fast growing population. Well, how is that impacting where the money is going and where business will go? Right, so you know, demographics is not just a matter of aging and you know, low fertility and uh so all the quantity of workers coming into the labor force, but really the quality, we are in the age of AI, right, you know, so we actually facing. You know, challenging from, uh, AI driven robots. OK, so it's not so much of, you know, how many more headcounts what is really the quality education and in this regard, I think it's also two questions comment about this region, the economic tremendous potentially in the head, you know, infrastructures is very important, but I would say even more important is to, you know, have, you know, world class education system to train the uh. You know, the human capital, uh, for the 21st century. In this regard, I think China can I was a very, very good role model for the certainly for the global south and, you know, uh, emerging economy since day one, you know, when Deng Xiaoping even before he, uh, set first economic zone in Shenzhen or even invited the first foreign investment country, investing country. The first is there to reopen competitive national entrance examination for universities as I'm lucky, you know, in one way first class of going to university, uh, indeed, so, so that before that now China has one of the best education system in the world, right, you know, 10 million, you know, graduates in university, but you know, half of Spain, you know, it is more than, you know, any other country. And uh I think you know, with the abundant human capital, you know, skilled workers, you can have less then with the automation with the robots and AI, you know, I think the world economy still has, you know, uh, very bright growth outlook. Now I'm just scan, uh, just a few minutes left. I'm just scanning the audience quickly for questions. Um, if you do have questions, of course, you can talk to our three fanta we have one question over here. Thank you. Thank you. This is a question for Fred who, um, Fred, I would just love to know if you've noticed a shift in the last 3 to 6 months around raising international capital, where is Primavera raising capital from today? Are you raising it mostly on the mainland? Have you seen more international appetite for, um, investing in China? And are US institutional investors starting to rethink China given the significant reset in pricing in private equity and venture capital and fairly quickly, of course, because our time is running down, but what are you seeing in terms of capital raising? Well, there's been a sea change, right? You know China used to be regarded as non-investable. Now it's on the radar screen of every global investors, whether it's. Institutions, sovereign wealth funds, or permanent family offices, you know, just China is too big to ignore. It's still the not only the second largest economy, but I still the fast growing and a lot of innovation in many ways, right this AI quantum robotics and, you know, energy transition. China is in the world, right? So there is abundance of attractive opportunities. So for global minded investors you have. You build a high quality diversified investment portfolio, so China definitely now become more important as policy uncertainty diminishes, and now people start to go there more often to see in their own eyes, then actually become much more comfortable and they can capital towards China. Well, uncertainty is the new normal, isn't it? So I want to give each of you a chance to give some final thoughts. I know. is just almost teaser content because there's so much we can talk about. I'm going to start with you, Merrit. What do you think in terms of, obviously not just where we are, but some of the sort of policy initiatives that you think are especially important right now in driving growth from a business perspective? Yeah, in 30 seconds or no, but just give us some final thoughts as to what you'd put on our radar that's on yours. Yeah, I'm paying attention to what is happening under the rubric of coalitions of the willing because there are a lot of restrictions that are being introduced by governments around the world and some of them in the name of economic security, sometimes in the name of economic growth, um, but what is Also happening are efforts by countries to integrate more. You're seeing that in the Asia Pacific. You're seeing more initiatives coming out of this region, so I think for corporate leaders, you know, you have to work ever more closely with governments. in partnership and keep an eye on the coalition of the willing Christian very quickly. Final thoughts. Well, there's not a single country in the world which can operate self-contained, so the interdependencies in the world are massive. So I'm personally very optimistic about this. Meeting between Xi and Trump that they will come to a good outcome and they all kind of uh keep in mind that uh if there are win-win situations that's for the sustainability probably a better outcome than pressing somebody down. Excellent. And last word goes to you, Fred. So what kind of policies governing trade, technology, and um um you know, should be more balanced, less just obsessed with. On one way which is national security, right? And also don't got everything as a zero-sum game. Actually, uh, you know, there is a scenario of win-win. Great. Please join me in thanking our panelists and more to come. I really appreciate it. Thank you again.