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Warren Buffett On Investment Strategy

December 18, 2019 16:51 PM UTC
- Updated February 18, 2020 16:37 PM UTC

The annual Fortune MPW interview with the world’s most successful investor - Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway.

Transcript
good morning. All after a spectacular night, they weren't. And I'm gonna be asking some questions as usual, and we will go to the audience. Ah, little bit later. So get your questions. Um, Warren, I'm gonna start unusually with a current events because last week you announced that you were buying the fifth largest auto auto insurance auto dealership in the country. Van Tyl group of feet. Now, there may even be some people in the audience who think of the car business as ethically can talent. But at any rate, what I'd like you to do is spend a, um, a paragraph or two talking about what, by Buffett standards is a good business and then go into wide as the car dealership. Business looked like a good business to you. Good news is the one that earns a high rate of return on intangible assets. Very simple. That's pretty simple. Yeah, and, uh, the very best businesses are the ones that earn a high rate of return on tangible assets and grow. But, uh, even ones that don't grow there. I return intangible assets. And then, of course, you don't pay too much. Uh uh, they could be a good investment. They're good businesses. Start with by the high returns. If you pay too much for him, you can turn on a good business into a bad investment. But if you take an appropriate price, you can you can do all right now, the big mistake which we made in the early years, was to try and buy a bad business at a really cheap price. And, uh, it took me about 20 or 30 years to figure out that wasn't a good idea. But this is that car business. The car dealership Businesses run well, could be a very good business. You have no receivables to speak of. Your four plan your inventory, you gun, you can leave here real estate. We don't do that well on 95% of our real estate. So you're gonna have very little capital actually invested in the business, And you do? Ah, a large volume van tyl, which we bought has 78 dealerships. Well, average over 100 $100 million a diversion, so you can work on fairly narrow margins and still earn a high return on capital. If you don't talk much capital into 100 million business and how many car dealers just are there in total. In the United States, there are over 17,000 car dealerships in the United States. And the interesting thing is, if you go back 40 or 50 years, there were in the 30,000. So while the country have grown dramatically and actually the number, uh, number of name plates in the car business of growing, you cut the dealerships almost in half. So the average dealer now does Barbara for greater volume. And when I was growing up, well, by all means, this is a Berkshire Hathaway car dealership in the next year and report back. Now let's talk about school from that to some entirely different industry the big day of the United States on the question of whether they are good businesses. And the question what happened to that in the last few years are they have a bit of businesses they were a few years ago. No, no. The banks earn on assets. They don't run network, uh, calculated eventually. So what? They are non equity or not worth, but they assets are the earning factors, and they've changed the rules so that you have to have more network for per dollar of assets, and obviously they have more network for dollar assets, and you're earning a constant amount on assets. Your earnings on network go down. They were ungodly profitable. The better ones were, um, back 15 years ago, 10 years ago, even when they had high ratios of assets to network. And some have even cheated in terms of having even more assets than the regulators would have allowed. And you had. Yet these says they were called Citigroup at a whole bunch of them, so they were off balance sheet ways of even a controlling more asset. But all of that sort of thing is been terminated, and now now there have got much lower limits is to the assets to network ratios and the bigger the bank. To some extent, the bigger the bank, the lower that ratio could be. So what was a very profitable business has been turned into a good business if executed. Well, it's a pretty simple business. I mean, uh, you know, you get your money cheap, very cheap. Uh, Wells Fargo will have a, uh trillion dollars roughly or close to that of of depositors money, and it's it's probably costing around 10 basis points. Now most people think you get a trillion dollars of money and pay attempt of 1%. Ford would find some way to do something profitable. Yeah, but the banks have always gotten in trouble on the assets. I'd have never gotten in trouble on the liability side, basically, but they they really haven't had gotten in trouble too much on the expense side. But they go crazy occasionally on the asset side, and what they do is they start copping what they're dumb competitors are doing. That happens in every business, but it's particularly virulent in the banking business. Uh, John, someone said. He said, I don't know why we keep looking for new ways to lose money when the old ones were working so well. But they dio and the copycat that's that's a great danger in any business. I warn our managers against it all the time. If anybody comes to me and says we want to do this because the other guys doing it when I say go back to square one and come up with a better reason. But human nature is such that you do want to do what others were doing. I one time was a director's meeting where a leading property casualty insurance, uh, manager, very well known guy was making a presentation to buy a life insurance company. It was going to all these kind of silly reasons why they should do it. And he realized that the crowd was kind of catching out of the fact that reasons work too good. So finally, just throw up their hands and say, Uh, all the other kids have one. And basically there's a lot of business decisions made because all the other kids have one. Okay, now let's move to the stock market of of great interest to everyone here. I'm sure over the years you've generally been reluctant. Thio frame big, cause me a position on the stock market done in about five. I know, but I think last spring, if I'm remembering correctly and correct me if I'm not, you said that stocks were neither were greatly expensive or really keep. What would you say now about stock and in answer, you might also mention what people are now calling the buffet standard. I even know that a statistical comparison that fortune has used and promoted over the years and tell us how things right there. Well, I did use in a talk game 15 years ago Sun Valley and got reprinted and portion standard of total market, uh, capitalization GDP and that I use that because it showed that that time how extreme things had gotten. I think they've gone away. Yeah, they got from 40% of GDP, which had been kind of standard over the years. They've got, like, 100 and 70% or something. So it wasn't designed to be a fine tuning type of valuation, but it showed things that really change in a big way, a very high percentage of the time stocks here in what I call those own reasonable. This is not something you know. We all know that pious 3.14159 and little kids can sometimes give it about the hundreds of of decimal places. But the stock market's not like that. There's a range of reasonableness and most of the times about my lifetime. It's sold in the range of reasonable that range changes over time. A CZ earnings accumulated interest rates change and all that sort of thing. There's only been about five times in my life. I think I've actually spoken out publicly to say it was outside the range in one direction or another, the most recent one being in October. I was early in October of 2008 and I said stocks were cheap and I wrote an op ed in The New York Times, but I'll probably have something some chance, you know, once every five or 10 years to make a definitive statement, there is a big no, no reasonable. Anybody thinks they can pinpoint. It is crazy. It's not that precise. Unfortunately, you don't need to, you know, if you if you buy good businesses at reasonable price and hold them, you're gonna make a lot of money. And that's true of stocks. Is a group of screw of individual companies. So you're saying that right now they are in a zone of reasonable there, Dona Reasonable. Okay. All right. We're gonna move sharply to another directions to call him. Ah, question of very great interest of this audience. Is Hillary gonna run now? Let me give you background on Hillary because in 2008 Warren promised support to both Hillary and Barack Obama. And then when he found out that he'd done that, sort of he said, Well, okay, I'll just be a big So he did. He did back. The only time I've been a big and so Okay, tell us, is Hillary going to run? Run? Killer's gonna run. Gonna announce it. She's gonna announce that, uh, as late as possible, huh? Well, how late is late? How? Well, I'm giving a direct quote. I, uh Okay. All right. Next question was gonna be our opponent. Who would you? I I don't know. The interesting thing is a bit Robin getting more interested, right? But it her opponent, whoever wins the Republican bribery, there's gonna be a lot of people want to do it. Well, some people say that if Bush runs that Mitt Romney, won't you believe that's the case? I think I think when once they have the political bug, anybody will run that they think could get it. Has a chance. Who thinks they can raise the money? Okay, Now hold up its law. Now, final question on that is how we're going to win. Hillary's gonna win. Yeah, well, I know. I heard. Just in the last few days, some of the political pundits like Ed Rollins are saying that that really that it is going to be true. I will bet money on it. I don't know that anybody in the audience who would like Thio on the other side of Warren Buffet I want to tell you it's not a good way. Did that a sober one? I was. I was selling short, and you were buying right on silver. That was right. Okay. Now, a business issue that is constantly in the press is the security of corporate data Has worked your head, or have you had personally, um, any security problems? I don't have anything back. I'm the only I'm the only person without any, Uh, an email so that, uh and I'm groping here. Toe pull out my latest. I've gotten in technology. Yeah, I really feel kind of with it, carrying out around. I don't know how to use it, understand? But I like to pull it out of occasion. Just impressed people. Uh, and wasn't there an a k occasion where you didn't look at it for kind of a year. Well, there was a famous case where, during the Lehman weekend, I received a call it on Saturday night. I was in Edmond in California and been in Alberta very late at night, and I first arrived there for a social event at six o'clock, and I got a call from Bob Diamond of Lehman. Are Bob Diamond Barclays, who was trying to buy Lehman, and they wanted the British government that just told? Lehman told Barclays, I'm sorry, Old Barkley. They could not buy Lehman on exposed themselves to a loss of greater than agreement £3 billion without getting shareholder approval. And they and they would need at least a month to get shareholder Probo. So Bob Diamond said to May, what would you charge to ensure all parties doing business with us that their contracts would be fulfilled between, uh, when we make the deal and when we have a chance to have the shareholders vote approving it, which would have been at least 30 days, probably 60 days, and I said, Well, I've never heard of a contract like this, how much you want the indemnity. Before, he said, I wanted to be unlimited Well, unlimited was not a great word in fall 2008. So I said, I'm going to this party. Oh, we'll come back about midnight, fax to me how much you'll pay. You'll find the terms of the contract, But tell me how much you'll pay and I will get back to you no matter what hour it is. A couple hours later in New York and, uh, and all that, you know what? I'll do it. So I went in the party and I came back at midnight. There was no facts. I went down to the desk and I said, Where's the facts? And they said, We don't have a fax. And I stayed up for another hour to when I gave up. Uh, that was September 2008. In July of 2009 I was going to Sun Valley and we got on the plane and I open this very modern contraption I have in my pocket, and it's a message waiting or something like that. I don't know how to work that part of it. So I gave it. I gave it to my daughter, who was here, and I said, Tell me what? This is messages on here. And so she, uh, pulled it up and handed it to me. And I started listening, and and she started talking to make it quiet. I'm trying to listen to this. It turned out that it was a message from that night in September telling me that they would call me on Sunday and we try to work out all this thing. So you really want to know the story? Why Lehman failed. Well, wasn't there? Send smoke signals to me if you have anything important to say. So you haven't adding security problems. I don't think Berkshire has had a security problem. How about your wife lose credit card when your first wife was a credit card? Oh, yeah. Yeah. On my first love, your credit card. I made no attempt to get it back because the guy was spending less than she was. Okay, so, um Okay, now a new one. Other current event issue. Um, fascinating, fascinating trial is going on in Washington in which a I g former CEO Hank Greenberg is contending that Washington's regulators not only acted wrongly in 2008 and taking over a yogi that was right after a women the next day is that right after Lehman failed but also wrongfully imposed onerous conditions on a i G. Charging it high die high interest rates. For example, what's your opinion about the issues in that trial? Well, I know certain aspects of it. I don't know whether we have been looking at a I G over that same weekend. When I was up it, Edmund, I came back and a i G It first engages while they try to engage in numerous times that first engages on Friday, proceeding my going to Canada for that social fair. And on Friday I went down to the office on Friday night and a they faxed me a whole bunch of material on the property casualty operations of a. I. D. They'll send a lot of life operations and unfortunately, had a financial products of general of derivative operations that was at the parent up toward the parent company. And I had to know whether the property casualty Cos. Been contaminated by any cross guarantees between day and a financial products, and they assured me they had, I don't know, the office didn't, and they sent me all this material and I looked at it for about an hour, and then I called Bob Jones Dad and I said, Look, don't waste your time on me because there is no way that I can come up with a number that will make any be of any help to you And besides, I can't make I wouldn't be sure of that number even because it's such a mess is forgetting. And don't you know you gotta You gotta come up with a solution by early next week, so spend your time on somebody else. Nevertheless, they kept pulling in another fellow Aggie chain, and on Sunday he was working on everything, so we had some vague picture about it. And then I got a call on either Monday or Tuesday from Tim Geitner. I never met before, and Tim said that they were contemplating lending 85 billion. Uh, the New York Fed was to the to A I G. And in my opinion, was there enough in the way of value there to warrant such an $86,000,000,000 loan? And I said nobody could know under the circumstances of that day, there wasn't anything that was worth 85 billion or anything like that. I mean, it was total chaos, but I thought that if they had staying power and if there weren't things there that I didn't know about, which there could be, uh probably the underlying subsidiaries would bring 85 billion in a normalized market. And that was that. Uh, I would say this that it's been proven that in a stabilized situation where people were not worried about survival a i G. Because the government was behind it. Those subsidies have been proved to be worth a lot more than 85 billion. But I won't say to say this if the New York bad had not put the money in within 24 hours, it's unquestionably a I G would have been walking over to a federal judges, uh, quarters, uh, with a petition of bankruptcy. They were gone. They did not had that. They had a downgrade coming where they on credit, where they would have had to put up more way more collateral on a bunch of things. They've done it in the financial products subsidiary, so they were totally gone. Now it's up to a judge determined. You know, the propriety of all these things. But the one thing I'm I'm clear on is that there would have been a g would have been in bankruptcy, absent the activities of the New York Fed within 48 hours. One guy called me. So that's that's a big central point. What? It's a central point, but there's questions about the terms and all of that. What, you're going to be adjudicated and are being adjudicate right now, and, uh, I just don't know the law on that, but there was not. There was no other option for a I G at that point, and there was nobody that would have lent them the money or invested on in terms that were twice his honor's owners of the ones imposed by the New York That, uh uh, it was for those of you. Boo may have missed the main show in 2008. It was it was a period like, we've never had one of the things during a period like that. It really is like the fog of war. I mean, if you're Paulson or Bernanke, you know Sheila Bair, the getting reports from all these different fronts. Summer somewhat inaccurate. You know, some of them have a bias to them. Based on what the parties want you to do. It is total mass confusion. And on the other hand, you have to navigate through it and and you have to navigate through it to some extent and cooperating with other people, particularly Congress. And it was ungodly. Uh, I've never seen anything like it. Well, the Oliver standing like it again and I give great credit to Paulson and Bernanke and Geitner and Sheila Bair War What I get credited with President Bush Ward way They handled it. You can criticize how what might have been done leading up to it. But when Pearl Harbor happened, they did the right thing. And my final question here. What about the political deadlock in Washington? Do you see any hopes? You see how we get out of that? Well, we'll get out of it somehow because way Yeah, and I always say that buy stock in a business. It's so good that an idiot could run it because sooner or later, one will No. If you want to, you can make a mental jump on that overto government's way. Do have a country that works overtime. I mean, it's an unbelievable It will continue it to work. It will. It will get. People will have a Civil War era about all kinds of problems in the past, but this country, it's unbelievable what's happened since 17 76 and the game isn't over. So I'm I'm an optimist about it getting solved. But if you ask me how I was going to happen, I would say, I don't have the faintest idea, eh? That's a terrible situation. You know, whether it's in a family in a business that a government, when a significant portion of the people involved don't even really want to succeed, they want the other person to fail and that you never want to bring that, you know, in, in in any activity. I mean, uh, but a significant percentage of people in Congress really want the president to fail, and that is not good for the country. And and, uh, we'll get we'll get past it one way or another. But, uh, but it has been, you know, it has been a pretty ugly go on in, in, in in in recent years, but don't don't ever do that should not affect in any way your business decisions. Charlie Munger and I have been making stock decisions and business decisions. Ah, one way or another together now, for 55 years, we have never let well. The macro doesn't enter into it. Nor does political way have not made decisions differently because one party or the others in power we have not made decisions based on whether we thought interest rates were going to go up or down, or or what was goingto happen with labor negotiations in someplace you know, you don't want to give up what you know how to do because of opinions, which you don't know, whether right or not and what you're going to be transitory in any event. So you really go out there every day into whatever makes the most sense when we buy the auto dealerships last week, Uh, we don't factor in anything about the fan about the deadlock and politics about what's going on around the world. Those are all important things, but they don't affect whether those dealerships, which were buying owned 100 years, they don't affect whether they're going to make money in the year 2024. 2034. 2044. And the important thing is whether we get a good business with good management, a sensible price. Now let me turn to the audience. It's always hard to see up here, but if you'll raise your hand, other people will help me. Uh, anything over here, I warrant it. Catherine Keating from J. P. Morgan. I want to ask you about your view on the economy. You know, a lot of economists of claim coming out of the crisis that we have a prolonged period of slower growth and yet you're investing in car sales, home sales, trains, transportation, things deeply sensitive to the economy. I'd love to hear your view about where you think it today. Yeah, since the fall of 9 2005 years ago, now we have seen both in our own businesses and we've got 75 or more businesses. We've really got a lot more than that because some hormone other ones, but we have We're across the board and everything. We're now in planes, trains and automobiles. But we're in all kinds of businesses, and they interact with all kinds of businesses we have seen since 2009 really a rather study not at the rate people hope, but a rather steady increase in business. Right straight through. We've heard talk and you heard talk during that period about double dips and all these things and acceleration. We have not seen it accelerate much or decelerate much ever from us A. A two per center. They're about, uh, rate. And that's what we see today. And we see it, whether it's in freight car loadings, We said all kinds of ways automobiles have been better than I would have anticipated. Housing has been worse than I would have anticipated, but overall, the economy's been looking forward now for five years now. It's moving from a position that, you know, they talk about having eight or nine recessions since World War two and how we've come out of fashion. This was way, way, way different than any other recession we've had post World War two. This was a recession where virtually everybody in this room and around the country was actually scared for a while. I mean, people go through recessions and their unpleasant and all that, but people literally they took Treasury Bill race down to a negative rate. Now when you were willing to take less money from a Treasury Mel Bill, then you would get from putting money under your mattress. You know, that is a different phenomenon in economics from what we've experienced. So you had the American people be paralyzed by fear and coming out of that paralysis and the game has been, really, I think quite satisfactory. You love to see it faster and let me point out one other thing. We talked about 2% of your gains down. That's terrible. You know, it's not our potential in everything. The population is probably going to go wrote a little less than 1% a year. So if you have 2% real gains, that means in a generation in 20 years you will have greater than a 20% her capital gain in real GDP. A real GDP is about $54,000 per person. In the United States. If you get a 20% rial gain per capita, that's $10,000 per person. Maura per capita income in the United States in one generation fantastic. I mean it. It may not be as good as we did in some of the decades after World War Two, but did you go back in history? Centuries went by without without getting anything like that. Yeah, and 20% gain. How would you like to have that distributed somehow evenly across the population to be rid of all poverty and everything else. So even in our present rates of gain, country is turning out more and more stuff per capita year by year, and it will continue to do so. We have a marvelous machine, and and it is. It has worked extraordinarily. 17 76 in my lifetime. I was born in 1930. In my lifetime, the rial GDP per capita in the United States has increased six for 11 person's lifetime. You know, nothing like it's ever happened. And and it isn't because we're smarter And it isn't because we work harder because we have a system and unleashes human potential and just looking people in this room, I mean, you know, you you have more potential than you thought you had 10 years ago. 20 years ago. You certainly have more potential than your parents thought you had. So it just It's just as you will find 10 years from now. You have you had a lot more potential than you thought you had today, and you're going to get a chance to use it in this country. You know, you're not condemned to a life that was ordained by what your parents did before you or something. That sort of It's a wonderful, wonderful system, and it's still working, and it will keep working here. I, uh, Jenny Johnson with Franklin Templeton Investments. How do you know when to throw in the towel on an investment orbit when you throw in the towel on no investment orbit, will you? What? You know what you're doing. Too late. I've done. I went to textile business by accident in 1965 and I threw in the towel about 20 years later, and that was about 20 years too late. The there's a great tendency to wantto hold on justify old decisions. I mean, it's a human human trait. And, uh, what, when you really know you've got a bad day, is when you have a good manager and you're getting bad results. I mean, when you were getting bad results. With a bad manager, you still have to work. Examine the question of whether you know you could get better results if you got a better manager. Usually you can't you know, I said in the past, you know, when a one a management with a reputation for excellence, encounters of business, with a reputation for bad economics. It's the reputation of the business that remains intact. And and I've proved that many times there are businesses that are just playing tough. The cops, they There may be too many competitors, but there's a reason why they don't drop out. There's reasons way start out in textiles and we made over half of the linings for men's suits in the country and way went through World War two and got awards and and Here's robot named us there Supplier of the year and all of that sort of thing. And, uh, then we'd say what we'd like to increase the price of of these linings, 1/4 of a century artist, you're out of your mind. Or send other guys. It will sell it to us of the old price, and nobody ever went into a store and said, I'd like a a blue Serge, certain blue shirt, Serge suit with 1/2 away lining. It didn't exist. We had no connection to the consumer. And there are lots of lousy businesses and there's lots of wonderful businesses, and my job over the years has been trying to figure out which is which. And I've made plenty of mistakes. I bought a company called Texture Shoes in the early nineties. I paid 400 plus $1,000,000 for it, and it it made our money before I bought it. But no, because I bought it. They pulled some switch or something immediately, started losing money, and, uh, and it was because of foreign competition. So under, Maybe because I owned, I don't know. And it went to zero, and the worst thing was that I paid for it in stock. So that 400 million in stock I gave at the time is, uh, now worth about five billion. Uh, so every time Berkshire stock goes down, I feel a little better because of my opportunity. Lost business. But you know, when I looked at Dexter Shoe, they had a good position in retailers they turned out good shoes, that great work force, all kinds of things. But I just forgot one thing that that they were gonna make shoes in United States anymore. So you make you make mistakes, and it does pay to recognize quickly when you made him. If you've got a good person running a business and it isn't making any money, uh, you're in the wrong business and you've got to face up to that. And on her, I think the other half the question was about investments. Do you have any rule of thumb about when you give up on her when you realize that, Well, again, I mean, I love it when the things we buy go down. I mean that. I mean, I just get euphoric. You know that stocks were down today and I'm buying more of something I was buying yesterday, buying a cheaper. Now when you go to the grocery store and you buy something cheaper than you bought it the day before, you think that's terrific. But people with their stocks they think that the stock knows more than they do, so they When the stock goes down, they say the stock is telling him something, and it was something is I get more for my money, but But they they take it. It's kind of a referendum on themselves, you know? Me versus stock. It ever gets back to what I paid. I'm gonna sell it, Doctor. Here. What you paid, you have to remember, I think the care that you own it you are nothing to the stock. That stock is everything to you, you know? And you remember, you paid $10.13 sets, and therefore the stock should get to 10. 13 before you sell it. Yeah. The stock has no feelings about you. I just It just doesn't care. And so the only question with every stock every day and you don't do it this frequently is can I get more for my money someplace else? You've got a chance to be in thousands and thousands of great businesses and their prices change over time. So that roams. Evaluations change. And you can make the exchange of very low cost these days commissions or nothing at. So you can always shift from one business other. You have a huge advantage over Andrew Carnegie. You know, when he was in the steel business. He was the steel business or rocker rose in the oil business. He could not shift over immediately to retailing or something like you. You can rearrange your business empire, which you owns without little portfolio that you have. You can rearrange that at a moment's notice with practically no cost. It's a huge advantage, which people turned into a disadvantage. There is nothing about the price action of the stock that tells you whether you should, he boning. What tells you whether you should keep owning it is what you expect the company to do in the future versus the prices, which is selling now compared to the other opportunities of businesses that you think you know equally well and make that same comparison. And that's all there is owning stocks. Um, question, uh, back there in the back. Are there two hands up together? Okay, I'll let you choose back there. Hi. Um, you had obviously this recovery has been a little, you know, bumpy and some industries have done well and some not so well like home building. Many of articulated that for us to really see the full potential of our economy growing homebuilding Gonna have to recover. Do you agree with that? And what does that look like for you? And what do you think the catalyst is to get us there? Rome building. You said a rolling her that it had leg. The question is, what do you think about home building and whether how much of a problem is it? Well, it's come back some, but it's come back at a pace way less than I would expect that we overbuilt like crazy. In 4 2005 and six, we're building a couple of 1,000,000 units and basically dies in the household formation and household formation falls off dramatically in a recession, at least initially. I mean, if you look at 2009 I believe the household formation, you know, was almost flat. People just they put plans on hold, but that doesn't last long. You know, hormones kick in, you know, and in laws get tiresome to so So in the end, you know it. People keep behaving as they have since Adam and Eve. Uh, you will have household formations in this country, and you will have them and you will not have them all, you know, wanting to live with her in laws or some of that. They will want to have their own homes, our apartment units. Now we have more of a bulge in apartment units. Then we have at home. I mean, there can be some movement between people's preferences, uh, within whether they want to live in an owner, occupied home or in the apartment. But so far in this recovery and we're in the carpet business. We are the largest homebuilder United States. We only company called Light Homes. It actually we'll turn out about 30,000 homes this year, but it's lagged significantly the rate of gain I would expect, considering everything else that's happened in the economy and considering how low interest rates are. I mean, you know, everybody in this room should get a 30 year mortgage now, and you get the mortgage. If it turns out interest rates go lower, you call it off. If they go higher, you don't call it off. You've got the option. It's an incredibly attractive instrument for the you know, it's a 30 minute instrument. If you've been wrong on interest rates and it's a 30 year instrument. You've been right on interest rates and at it. I can't get that one side of it. An instrument at Berkshire Hathaway can only get it from worrying. So you would think that people would be lining up now to get mortgages to buy a home. And and, Yeah, good way to go short the dollar. I mean, a short interest rates. It's a almost It is a no brainer. But so far, uh, and home construction pickup has been slower than I anticipated, but I have a lot of faith in hormones, you know, and the, uh I don't really think that their impact will be less five or 10 years now, So we will have a catch up period. We've had to catch up, period going on autos on a much faster pace, I think, than most people anticipated. I mean, we're gonna have to close to 17 million car here. I would not have guessed we'd have a 17 million Korea at the same time that we have. Uh, house is moving in the right. There they are. It'll it'll improve. But I have been wrong on the timing so far, so probably continue to be wrong. Well, I'm afraid that the clock is telling us that it's our time's up, and I hope we'll get a warrant, a great hand for both speaking and singing well.