Traders on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket correctly favored Democrats to win both chambers of Congress, and proved highly accurate in forecasting several key Senate races, helping boost the platforms’ reputation for accuracy. Now, with the midterms behind them, prediction market traders have shifted their attention toward what comes next.
At a time when the incoming Democratic majorities are promising to investigate many aspects of the Trump Administration—from the war in Iran to allegations of corruption—traders are placing bets on who could be the next to leave Trump’s Cabinet. A market on Polymarket has drawn nearly $190,000 in trading volume, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among the leading contenders.
As of Friday morning, Hegseth led at roughly 31%, followed by Wiles at 24% and Rubio at 8%. But traders also put the odds of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%.
Hegseth’s lead in the market comes as his role in the Iran war fuels calls for his ouster. The House could vote as early as next week on articles of impeachment that accuse him of waging the war without congressional approval, an effort Republican Rep. Thomas Massie plans to revive after the GOP’s midterm losses.
Wiles has also become a target as Republicans search for someone to blame for their midterm losses. Among her critics is former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine, who called for her resignation in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday. “Her campaign skills have not translated into governing,” Sunshine said.
Rubio, meanwhile, has faced questions about both his future in the administration and a possible 2028 presidential bid. He has discussed stepping down with White House officials, who asked him to stay, Bloomberg reported. But he publicly rejected the exit speculation this week, telling The New York Times that serving through the end of Trump’s term has “always been my plan.”