That’s a key finding of new research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The report estimates that technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade.

At the same time, economic growth, including growth in AI-related industries and services, could create demand for about 41 million jobs. The U.S. could have more jobs in 2035 than today, even as technology changes how people work and the skills they need.

The challenge is that new jobs may require skills that many workers don’t currently have. In fields such as management and law, where judgment, coordination and accountability matter, AI is more likely to help people do their jobs than replace them outright, according to the report. It may also create new responsibilities that require training, from checking AI-generated work to ensuring its responsible use and redesigning workflows.

Office and administrative support roles face particular exposure to automation, with roughly 80% of current work hours potentially automated by 2035. That doesn’t mean 80% of jobs will disappear, but it signals how significantly these roles could change.

For some workers, adapting will mean moving into entirely different occupations. MGI estimates that about 11 million Americans may need to leave declining occupations for new ones. Others may be able to stay in their fields as their work evolves. Still, roughly 770,000 workers a year may need to change occupations over the next decade—about 3.6 times the historical rate, according to McKinsey senior partners Eric Kutcher, the firm’s former CFO, and Tanguy Catlin, director of MGI.

Credentials present another hurdle. About 85% of growing employment requires a credential or certification. For 38% of those jobs, the credential is legally required; for another 47%, employers prefer it. The research suggests companies could widen their talent pools by rethinking which qualifications are essential and giving greater weight to proven skills and experience.

MGI recommends tracking whether employees move into new roles, whether companies fill more positions internally and how workers fare, not just AI-related cost savings.

Finance leaders could examine how employees use the time AI frees up. Is it used to improve customer service, develop new ideas, grow the business or tackle more complex work? Or does it simply reduce the time spent on existing tasks?

The key question isn’t just how much work AI can take on. It’s what the business does with the time it saves.

Sheryl Estrada
Sheryl.Estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

Carine Damois was appointed CFO of Renault Group, the French automaker behind the Renault, Dacia and Alpine brands, effective Nov. 14. She succeeds Duncan Minto, who is leaving the company after nearly three decades to pursue opportunities outside the group. Damois joins Renault from Michelin, where she has served as deputy CFO since 2021, Before that, she held senior leadership positions at Michelin and AREVA Group. Damois has more than 20 years of finance leadership experience at global industrial companies.

James J. Burke was appointed interim CFO of Standard Motor Products (NYSE: SMP), the automotive parts manufacturer and distributor, effective Oct. 30. He succeeds Nathan R. Iles, who is resigning to become CFO of another public company. Burke previously served as Standard Motor Products' CFO from 1999 to 2019, when he was promoted to chief operating officer. He held that role until June of this year, when he became an executive advisor. Burke will remain on the board of directors while the company searches for a permanent CFO.

Big Deal

AI is boosting productivity, but CEOs are struggling to turn those gains into growth. In the latest EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey of 1,200 CEOs, half named AI as their biggest source of productivity gains. 

Yet 23% say those gains are often absorbed before they reach the bottom line, and only 16% have clear, real-time visibility into AI ROI. Talent is another constraint: 72% expect skills shortages to become a bigger barrier to growth than access to capital, but only 15% are reinvesting productivity gains in workforce development. As ROI measurement and capital allocation take center stage, CFOs, as strategic partners to CEOs, can help turn efficiency gains into lasting value.

Going deeper

A bipartisan bill to speed up permits for energy projects, from solar farms and power lines to gas pipelines, has brought fossil fuel and renewable companies together while splitting environmental groups, Fortune's Jordan Blum reports. With data centers driving up power demand and utility prices, the outcome could shape energy costs for businesses.

Overheard

"Why does enterprise adoption stall? Not for want of technology, but because of accumulated organizational complexity."

—Ming Lu, a senior advisory partner at KKR, writes in Fortune opinion piece.