Payroll taxes from today’s workers pay for benefits that go to today’s retirees. Gen X and millennials, who are paying in, increasingly doubt the program will pay them back in full, and some expect it to pay them nothing.
A new Harris Poll for the annuity seller Athene, released Oct. 6, found that 63% of Americans ages 40 to 61 are concerned Social Security will run out of funds before they begin collecting benefits. Three-quarters (76%) believe the U.S. retirement system was designed for a previous generation, and 61% say they have fewer guaranteed retirement-income options than prior generations. The sample is not representative of all Americans: every respondent had at least $100,000 in investable assets and household income of at least $50,000. Harris polled 2,022 people online from June 26 to July 7.
A broader survey shows the same doubt. A 2025 Harris Poll for Nationwide found that 34% of millennials and 26% of Gen Xers agreed with the statement “I will not get a dime of the Social Security benefits I have earned.” Among respondents 61 and older, the share was 9%.
The timing is tight for the oldest of them. The 2026 trustees report, released in June, projects that the retirement trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, a quarter earlier than last year’s estimate. Anyone born in 1965, the first year of Gen X, reaches the full retirement age of 67 that same year. At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover roughly 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, a 22% cut, unless Congress acts. Should Congress combine retirement and disability funds—which isn’t allowed under current law and would take an act of Congress—that would only last until the third quarter of 2034, when benefits would be cut 17%.
The cut doesn’t hold steady. The trustees project payable benefits for the combined funds sliding to 65% of scheduled benefits by 2100. A 40-year-old today hits 67 in 2053, with decades of collecting after that. The 75-year shortfall now equals 4.42% of taxable payroll, up from 3.82% a year ago.
Even so, the middle generations are the least willing to give ground. In a Cato Institute poll published in December 2025, 27% of Americans ages 30 to 64 supported reducing future benefits, compared with 53% of those under 30 and 36% of those 65 and older.
Millennials are already planning around the doubt. Cerulli Associates found that only 16% of millennial 401(k) participants expect Social Security to be their primary source of retirement income.
That is the opening for annuity sellers like Athene. “Annuities are a vital retirement tool that can complement savings, investments and Social Security to create a more resilient retirement plan,” said Mike Downing, co-president of Athene USA. Its survey found that 85% of respondents consider guaranteed monthly income through a 401(k) appealing, which Athene said reflects demand for something that looks like a pension. Only 40% say they have planned how to turn their savings into income, and only 23% have bought an annuity.
Generative AI was used for research assistance and/or transcription of this article. The reporter independently reported and verified the factual claims in this article, and a human editor reviewed it before publication.