On Thursday, after 1,413 days — nearly four years — Meloni’s conservative administration became Italy’s longest-serving uninterrupted government since World War II, surpassing the record set by the late Silvio Berlusconi between 2001 and 2005.

None of Italy’s 68 governments in the country’s 80 years as a republic has yet to complete a five-year term without interruption. Berlusconi came closest, but a government crisis forced him to resign briefly in 2005 before forming a new Cabinet.

Meloni and her party will celebrate their feat on Friday with a large preelection rally in the southern city of Bari.

Meloni, straightforward and pragmatic, has managed to stave off the crises and defections that have toppled past governments. The results — or lack of results — from this uncharacteristic period of stability may ultimately define Meloni’s legacy and her odds of winning another term.

“If you have five years in office and not much to show when you go back to voters, it can weigh against you,” said Nathalie Tocci, an international relations expert and professor at Johns Hopkins University.

From outsider to insider

When Meloni took office in October 2022, she was Italy’s first female prime minister. Her government was also the first led by a party with neo-fascist roots, and European allies and financial markets viewed her with unease.

But Meloni has largely governed pragmatically. She maintained steadfast support for Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion, worked within European institutions and embraced fiscal discipline.

Her relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump became one of her most notable foreign policy assets — at least initially.

While political instability has reshaped governments elsewhere in Europe — including the United Kingdom and France — Meloni has kept the same coalition in place since taking office, a rarity in modern Italian politics and a central pillar of her reelection bid.

“Meloni has reaped a part of what she sowed, because I know few people so determined, so hardworking, so precise, so meticulous, who have sacrificed both their human and private spheres in order to serve the institutions,” Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday.

“For this she is now reaping exactly what she deserves in terms of international credibility,” he said, speaking in a room in the ministry filled with photos of his predecessors. “She is not reaping the same on the Italian level.”

Heading toward the next election, due by the end of 2027, there is no longer any debate that Meloni can govern. The question is whether voters believe her government delivered enough to deserve another term.

Making the economic case

Supporters point to tighter public finances, the rollback of costly measures, more than 1 million additional jobs, unemployment below 6% and youth unemployment at new lows. They also cite a sharp decline in the arrival of migrants.

“Duration is not synonymous with results,” Crosetto said, referring to the government’s record, “but these are important ones.”

Meloni says those gains resulted from policies supporting businesses and job creators.

“The government’s strategy has focused on supporting those who create wealth and jobs,” Meloni said at a recent labor event. “We have reached a record high in employment.”

While she and her supporters point to jobs, fiscal discipline and political durability, her critics counter that many of Italy’s persistent problems remain. Weak productivity, demographic decline and long-standing inefficiencies in healthcare, education and public administration remain largely unaddressed.

“The Meloni government has been certainly stable and long-running, but it hasn’t achieved much in terms of structural reforms,” political analyst and pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco said.

Opposition leaders say Meloni’s government has yet to find concrete ways to stimulate long-term economic growth beyond just controlling public debt and state deficits.

Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and a possible rival at the polls, pointed to the higher cost of living.

“The government is celebrating, but Italians are not,” Conte said in a recent speech outside parliament.

Turning global standing into political capital

Meloni’s transformation from nationalist outsider to establishment figure has reassured investors and European leaders.

“Italy has somewhat lost its role as Europe’s black sheep,” said Stefano Manzocchi, an international economics expert and professor at Rome’s LUISS University.

Her knack for the balancing act was highlighted during recent tensions with Trump.

After Trump claimed that she had “begged” him for a photo at a Group of Seven summit in France, Meloni shot back: “Italy doesn’t beg.” It won her points with Italians who saw it as evidence that she could maintain relations with Washington while publicly defending Italy and Europe.

“I like Meloni, I like her character because she is authoritative and doesn’t let anyone walk on her,” said David Del Sarto, a 52-year-old taxi driver in Rome.

A challenger on her right

Tocci, the Johns Hopkins professor, noted that by pairing nationalist positions on migration and identity with tactical ability, Meloni helped accelerate the mainstreaming of Europe’s hard right. Once viewed with suspicion by much of the political establishment, nationalist parties have increasingly gained influence within governments and European institutions.

Meloni’s supporters see her evolution as proof that nationalist conservatives can govern responsibly while remaining committed to democratic institutions and Western alliances.

But Meloni’s willingness to become more moderate has also been viewed as a weakness by some — and it has opened room for more conservative challengers.

Retired army Gen. Roberto Vannacci — known for hard-line positions on immigration and national identity — has emerged as a prominent voice on Italy’s far right, threatening Meloni by launching his own political party. He argues that Meloni has abandoned many of the combative promises that energized her political base, choosing instead to project an institution-friendly image to European and U.S. allies.

He may succeed in siphoning off conservative voters and lawmakers who feel Meloni moderated too much in her pursuit of stability.

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AP videojournalists Paolo Santalucia and Trisha Thomas contributed to this report.