“Ten years ago, the world was aligning around consistent climate policies, but now we’re starting to see a bit of divergence,” he says, as countries instead pursue what he dubs a “pragmatic transition,” one that balances sustainability with energy security and economic affordability—usually by allowing traditional fossil fuels to play a role.

Geopolitical conflict has driven much of the reassessment of the green transition. First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a surge in fuel prices, causing an energy crisis throughout much of the developing world. 

February’s U.S. strikes on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz also cut Asia’s supplies of oil and gas, reiterating to the region’s governments just how much they relied on energy from a volatile Middle East.

Asian governments are now pursuing a range of energy options to wean themselves off Middle Eastern energy: Investing more in renewable energy and nuclear power; finding alternate sources of oil and gas, like the U.S.; and, perhaps most concerningly, returning to coal power generation. 

On Aug. 25, Japan unveiled detailed plans to accelerate its green transformation, including building up to five nuclear reactors in the 2040s, and 14 in the 2050s. “The Government of Japan is now undertaking various measures as it makes all efforts to ensure a stable supply of energy and critical goods to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the Japanese people,” Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi said during a press conference in April. “Fuel supply shortages and supply-chain disruptions in Asia…result in major negative societal and economic impacts for Japan.”

Singapore, too, recently committed 800 million Singapore dollars ($631 million) to supporting research on low-carbon energy generation and decarbonisation technologies, in hopes of slashing national greenhouse gas emissions to between 45 million and 50 million tonnes of CO2 by 2035. 

“We are significantly increasing investments in promising solutions to reduce power sector and industry emissions, and at the same time, to ensure a reliable and resilient power system,” Tan See Leng, Singapore’s minister-in-charge of energy, science and technology, said during a parliamentary session on March 2. 

Some Asian countries are also deepening their reliance on fossil fuels. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia have all increased coal-fired capacity since 2020, despite pledges to decarbonize. In March, when the Philippines declared a national energy crisis, its energy secretary, Sharon Garin, said the country planned to boost the output of its coal-fired plants to keep energy costs down.

“Be it in Australia, Singapore or Hong Kong, we’ve seen more focus on safeguarding transition assets and activities than we’ve seen in Europe,” Ghosh says. “That’s a reflection of the decarbonization challenges which Asia faces. It’s an area of strong income growth, which historically translates to higher emissions….so Asia has to figure out how to meet greater demand for vehicles and air-conditioning, while keeping energy efficiency standards in place.” 

(By contrast, wealthier societies are more ruthlessly deepening net-zero commitments. For instance, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which places a cost on imported carbon-intensive goods, became operational this January.)

Yet another global trend—climate change and extreme weather—is encouraging public and private investors to channel more capital to climate adaptation and resilience, a category which includes projects like floodgates and dams, smart sensing and early warning systems for climate disasters, and drought-resistant crops. 

“A lot of the next ten years of extreme weather conditions are already locked in because of prior emissions,” Ghosh explains. On Wednesday, the United Nations said that the world has failed in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, despite advancements in wind and solar power technologies since the Paris Agreement was ratified in 2016.

Last year’s record-shattering monsoon season is heightening the urgency to invest in climate resilience. “Large swathes of Asia, including parts of India, China and Southeast Asia, are quite under-insured when it comes to natural disasters,” Ghosh says. “That’s one of the reasons why there’s greater focus in this region on creating greater climate resiliency.”

But even if it looks like countries are moving backwards on some elements of sustainability—and are increasingly operating alone, rather than together—Ghosh still believes the region is headed in the right direction. 

“The process was always going to be non-linear,” he says. Yet “we are still moving from a higher-carbon to a lower-carbon economic system over time.”