I’ve been navigating New York airspace for a long time. I’ve seen noise abatement battles, slot pressures, FBO politics, ramp shortages, and ground stop cascades out of Newark Liberty International. The regulatory environment around New York has never been simple. But what’s unfolding right now is different — and every aircraft owner, operator, and frequent private traveler flying into the New York metro needs to understand what’s coming before it arrives.

This isn’t about airspace. It’s about politics. And the pattern is unmistakable.

The Pattern Is Already Established

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ran on a platform of taxing the wealthy, and he has moved aggressively to make good on that promise. The pied-à-terre tax — a surcharge on high-value New York City real estate owned by non-residents — has passed. It’s modeled on policies already implemented in London and Vancouver.

More recently, Mamdani proposed reducing New York’s inheritance tax threshold from $7.5 million to $750,000 — a figure so low it would capture virtually any New York homeowner. Own a $1 million condo and your spouse dies? Under this proposal, heirs might need to sell the property simply to cover the tax bill.

And then there was the moment that made the political calculus explicit: Mamdani posted a video on social media standing outside Citadel CEO Ken Griffin’s apartment building on Billionaires Row — knocking on the camera — and said, on the record: “Wake up, Ken. It’s time to pay your fair share.” Shortly after, Griffin announced he may redirect a planned $6 billion investment and thousands of New York jobs to Florida.

If you own an apartment in New York and don’t live there full-time, you’re taxed. If your heirs inherit assets in New York, they’re taxed at thresholds that now reach the upper middle class. The logical extension of this trajectory — and the question the entire private aviation industry should be asking — is: what about the $70 million jet you landed at Teterboro this morning?

The Airport Ownership Map

To understand how a New York City private jet tax could actually be implemented, you need to understand who controls the airports. 

The Port Authority is a bi-state agency jointly controlled by the governors of New York and New Jersey with an annual operating budget of $10.1 billion and a proposed $45 billion capital plan from 2026 – 2035. It operates JFK, LaGuardia, Newark Liberty, and Teterboro — all rated high tax-risk under current political conditions. Teterboro Airport, which does not allow scheduled airline flights and only services private flights, handles approximately 177,000 arrivals and departures annually. 

Westchester County Airport (HPN) is not a Port Authority facility. It is owned and operated by Westchester County — outside Mamdani’s direct political sphere and outside the joint gubernatorial control structure of the Port Authority. This makes it the most insulated major reliever airport in the New York metro under current political conditions.

Republic Airport (FRG) on Long Island is New York State property — its vulnerability depends on whether Governor Hochul aligns with Mamdani’s agenda, which remains an open question.

Key policy context: The Port Authority has the authority to set fees, surcharges, and access terms at its facilities without requiring standard legislative processes in many scenarios. The question isn’t just whether a tax gets proposed — it’s whether the mechanism to implement it already exists. In many cases, it does.

Three Realistic Scenarios

Scenario 1: Port Authority Landing Surcharge

The most administratively straightforward path without requiring Albany to pass new legislation. The two governors leverage the Port Authority to implement a per-landing surcharge on all private and business aviation aircraft at its facilities. This targets wealth directly and raises revenue for the Port Authority which can be used for other poltical objectives. Whether those objectives are to subsidize public transportation for commuters without requiring Albany to pass new legislation, Mamdani has claimed he wants to make all bus transportation free. 

Scenario 2: New York State Aircraft Registration Tax

Any aircraft based, registered, or primarily operated in New York State becomes subject to an annual registration surcharge or excise tax — mirroring the logic of the pied-à-terre tax applied to aircraft.

Scenario 3: In-State Flight Activity Tax

A per-flight or per-hour excise on private aircraft operating within New York airspace or landing at New York State facilities. Think of it as London’s ULEZ charge — which started as a concept, became a proposal, and now covers most of Greater London — applied to aviation.

None of these are guaranteed. But all of them follow the established political logic of what Mamdani has already done, and all of them have precedent in other jurisdictions globally.

What Smart Operators Are Doing Now

• Charter, don’t own — for New York trips. Ownership-based taxes require an owner. Charter clients flying on a per-trip basis have structural insulation from registration, basing, and ownership surcharges.
• Move your aircraft out of New York. If your aircraft is currently based or registered in New York State, that is your single largest exposure point. Florida, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are the most common rebasing destinations. Act before the rule is written.
• Know your airports. Teterboro (TEB) remains operationally superior but are Port Authority facilities and therefore in scope. Westchester (HPN) is the most insulated option available.
• Watch Albany, not just City Hall. Mamdani’s ability to implement airport-level taxes requires coordination with Governor Hochul and the New Jersey governor’s office. Monitor state budget negotiations closely.

The Bigger Picture

The political infrastructure for taxing high-net-worth assets in New York is not being built — it’s already built. We’re watching it get used. The pied-à-terre tax started as a fringe idea. It passed. The inheritance tax threshold at $750,000 would have seemed extreme two years ago. It’s now a live proposal.

The clients who will be best positioned are the ones making smart decisions today — not the ones reacting to a tax bill six months from now.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.