• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

2

Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard

3

Red Lobster’s 37-year-old CEO waited tables before joining the C-suite—he says it was a crash course in managing ‘difficult people and situations’

1

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

2

Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard

3

Red Lobster’s 37-year-old CEO waited tables before joining the C-suite—he says it was a crash course in managing ‘difficult people and situations’
Commentarynational debt

America’s national debt is heading to 175% of GDP. Here’s why no president—including Trump—has the will to stop it

By
Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke
and
David M. Walker
David M. Walker
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke
and
David M. Walker
David M. Walker
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 22, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
trump
President Donald Trump waves after stepping off Air Force One upon arrival at Harry Reid International Airport Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 16, 2026. Jim WATSON / AFP via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

On April 3, 2026, President Trump released his proposed Fiscal 2027 Budget. It was two months late. Strikingly, Trump proposed to increase defense spending by over 40% and cut non-defense discretionary spending by about 10%. Yet, even after slashing everything from environmental protection and scientific research to housing and small-business support, government spending will surge, the deficit will balloon, and the ratio of debt held by the public to GDP will climb to peacetime highs and remain above 100%.

Recommended Video

Overall, the Trump administration’s proposed budget is an extension of what has become, particularly during the last three administrations, fiscal folly. Indeed, tax policy has become shambolic and spending discipline is non-existent. The numbers make clear that no relief is in sight.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects where we are and where we are likely to be headed, with government metrics expressed as percentages of the total value of goods and services produced (GDP).

Before viewing the CBO’s metrics, it is worth stressing that we don’t want to engage in quibbles about the veracity of the CBO’s metrics and forecasts. As it turns out, the CBO’s macro forecasts tend to be more accurate than the Administration’s budget forecasts and the private Blue-Chip consensus, and at least as accurate as the Survey of Professional Forecasters. 

The metrics shed light on what is Uncle Sam’s fiscal folly:

  • Economic growth is projected to slow and to fall well below its 1976–2025 average.
  • The federal government is expected to continue growing more rapidly than the private sector.
  • Current federal revenues are about the same as they have been during the past 50 years, and are projected to grow only moderately.
  • Federal deficits are significantly higher than during the past 50 years, and are projected to increase significantly in the future.
  • Mandatory spending has grown dramatically, from 6% of GDP in 1946, to 13.7% today, and is projected to increase significantly in the future.
  • Discretionary spending has declined significantly, from 18.2% of GDP in 1946, to 6.2% today, and is expected to continue to decline. Notably, all of the express and enumerated federal government responsibilities envisioned by our nation’s founders fall into the discretionary spending category.
  • Defense spending has declined from a 1976–2025 average of 4.1% of GDP to 2.9% today, and is expected to continue to decline over time. The trajectory of defense spending will no doubt be amended, at least in the short-term, to reflect Trump’s proposal for a dramatic increase in defense expenditures.
  • Social Security spending has increased from its average over the past 50 years, and is expected to continue to increase.
  • Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal health care spending has increased dramatically from its average during the past 50 years, and is expected to increase significantly in the future.
  • Net interest has increased significantly over the past 50 years, and is expected to increase dramatically in the future. Interestingly, interest expense is the federal government’s fastest growing expense and one for which taxpayers receive nothing.

While all the trends that accompany the fiscal folly are edifying, there is one underlying feature that stands out: the yawning gap between government spending and revenues and the resulting fiscal deficits. Deficit finance, which is nothing more than a Houdini-esque act, creates a “fiscal illusion” that obscures the true cost and consequences of the government’s propensity to spend. Those deficits exist because they are a politician’s dream of spending now and taxing later.

A significant chunk of today’s government expenditures are financed by putting future generations in bondage and saddling them with the costs. This is irresponsible, inequitable, and immoral. Fiscal deficits are nothing more than deferred taxes that will be paid by those who aren’t even voting today, as well as many who are yet to be born.

It’s time to put an end to the fiscal folly by amending the U.S. Constitution to include a fiscal responsibility requirement. The American Republic was initially informed by Adam Smith’s principle of fiscal responsibility: Government should not spend without imposing taxes. Let’s put that principle in writing.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

About the Authors
Steve H. Hanke
By Steve H. Hanke
Twitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By David M. Walker
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Steve Hanke is a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a board member of the Federal Fiscal Sustainability Foundation. He is the co-editor, with Barry W. Poulson and John Merrifield, of Public Debt Sustainability: International Perspectives. David M. Walker is the former U.S. Comptroller General and FFSF chairman.

 

Latest in Commentary

japan
CommentaryJapan
Japan’s monetary conundrum — why the yen hit a 40-year low as interest rates hit a 31-year high
By Steve H. Hanke and John GreenwoodJuly 20, 2026
36 minutes ago
ryan
CommentaryLeadership
I’ve interviewed 700 leaders. The ones outsourcing their thinking to AI lose their best people first
By Ryan HawkJuly 20, 2026
2 hours ago
ranch
CommentaryWorld Cup
Ranch dressing is quietly doing America’s diplomacy for it
By David BohigianJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago
jt
CommentaryRetirement
Gen X built their whole identity on never needing help. Retirement is the one door they can’t unlock alone
By Jeanne ThompsonJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago
biden
CommentaryLeadership
Ginsburg and Biden’s blind spot: when leaders don’t know when to leave
By Michael SonnenfeldtJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago
time
CommentaryDaylight Saving Time
It’s time to dump time zones
By Steve H. HankeJuly 18, 2026
2 days ago

Most Popular

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
2 days ago
Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard
AI
Power companies are using eminent domain to seize land for data centers as 70% of Americans say not in my backyard
By Aaron Walayat and The ConversationJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago
Red Lobster’s 37-year-old CEO waited tables before joining the C-suite—he says it was a crash course in managing ‘difficult people and situations’
Success
Red Lobster’s 37-year-old CEO waited tables before joining the C-suite—he says it was a crash course in managing ‘difficult people and situations’
By Preston ForeJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago
Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI
Commentary
Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI
By Svenja GudellJuly 18, 2026
2 days ago
A decade after the ‘Godfather of AI’ said radiologists were obsolete, their salaries are up to $571K and demand is growing fast
AI
A decade after the ‘Godfather of AI’ said radiologists were obsolete, their salaries are up to $571K and demand is growing fast
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 19, 2026
24 hours ago
'Right to repair' is coming to cars, but there's still this big blind spot as consumers demand more autonomy
Politics
'Right to repair' is coming to cars, but there's still this big blind spot as consumers demand more autonomy
By Joshua HongJuly 19, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.