Iran and the White House both declared the valuable Strait of Hormuz choke point “completely open” on April 17, and benchmark crude oil prices plunged below $90 per barrel for the first time since early March. But Iran is still asserting its control over the strait, and President Donald Trump maintained that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports continues for now.
Translation: Virtually nothing has changed yet, and the markets overreacted to the announcements, although peace talks are seemingly making notable progress, energy and geopolitical analysts told Fortune.
“The strait remains closed for now,” said Matt Reed, vice president of geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports. “The Iranians made clear that nothing has really changed yet. They still want ships to follow their orders. That means being rerouted. It means maybe paying tolls.
“When Iran said that the strait was completely open, it came with an asterisk.”
Despite the confusion on Friday, Reed said, there is clear progress being made in the negotiations.
“If there if there is a breakthrough to be had, it might not be for a few more days,” Reed said. “We are clearly inching in the right direction, but there’s still a long way to go. The problem for oil markets is that every day the strait remains shut the market is starved. And it is still closed for now.”
Historic supply shocks
The world has continued to suffer its greatest supply shock ever for nearly seven weeks with the closure of the strait and the halting of roughly 20% of global crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, and petrochemical trade flow.
Although Trump declared the strait “completely open and ready for business and full passage,” he emphasized that the naval blockade on Iran’s exports will remain “in full force and effect” until a peace deal is “100% complete.” He said the process should be completed “very quickly” because most points are already negotiated. Trump added that Iran is in the process of removing sea mines from the strait, which has not been confirmed.
No immediate changes in traffic through the Persian Gulf were apparent April 17, said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa. “In practical terms, that likely means shipowners, charterers, and insurers will still want operational clarity before changing voyage decisions.”
German maritime shipper Hapag-Lloyd still has six vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. The company’s crisis committee is meeting and trying to determine when it might be safe to traverse the strait, said spokesman Nils Haupt in email exchanges. But they remain in a holding pattern for now.
“There are still some open questions on our end, but they might be resolved within the next 24 hours,” Haupt said. “Top priority for the passage is safety and security for the seafarers, the vessel, and the cargo of our customers. If all open issues are cleared (i.e., insurance coverage, clear orders of Iranian government/military about the exact sea corridor to be used, and the sequence of ships leaving), we would prefer to pass the strait as soon as possible.”
Likewise, the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association said the tenuous situation “remains unresolved” with issues of sea mines, Iran’s conditional orders, insurance, and more still unclear for now.
It seems as if the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced April 16 was a key step toward moving the U.S. and Iran closer on a potential deal. Iran drew a line in the sand against Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon. Trump said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not tied to Lebanon, but Trump added on social media, “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
Matt Reed now sees an interim peace deal—not a more in-depth permanent one—as possible as soon as this weekend.
“The good news is that we’re headed in the right direction. The bad news is that we haven’t achieved a breakthrough yet,” Reed said. “We could see Iran ease its grip on traffic going through the strait, but it won’t want to give up its leverage too soon.”
