Good morning. The single-point forecast is no longer fit for purpose.
Scenario planning has become boardroom shorthand for preparation to deal with the unknowable, my colleague Geoff Colvin writes in a Fortune feature titled “For CEOs, it’s time for a wartime mindset.”
Colvin argues that it’s a practice that is never more vital than in wartime — when a cyberattack, or even a sanction, can reroute supply chains overnight and send energy prices soaring.
He writes: “Instead of betting on one forecast about how events will unfold, the most resilient CEOs are now rehearsing several plausible futures at once and deciding — before the missiles start dropping, the virus becomes a pandemic, or the markets seize up — what they will do in each.
“It’s an approach that was pioneered by Shell precursor Royal Dutch Shell. In the 1970s, the energy company began developing a set of vivid alternative futures involving potential oil-supply disruptions. Shell did not invent the idea of developing such scenarios, which had earlier roots in military and Cold War strategy, but it was the first major company to embed systematic scenario planning at the center of corporate decision-making, largely through the work of economist and planner Pierre Wack.” You can read more of Colvin’s article here.
CFOs are strategic partners to CEOs, and financial scenario planning isn’t just about reducing risk—it can also uncover new opportunities, according to Gartner research. For each scenario, CFOs should define actions that enable rapid response, while prioritizing moves that apply across multiple outcomes, such as locking in supplier contracts or accelerating product launches, Gartner advises. This kind of proactive planning helps to ensure companies can act quickly. The firm also points to AI scenario planning models to track key metrics in real time, and autogenerate scenarios based on real data, not just guesses.
Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
Leaderboard
Parmeet Ahuja was appointed CFO of MaxCyte, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXCT), a cell-engineering focused company, effective March 30. Ahuja succeeds Douglas Swirsky, who is transitioning from the role as previously announced in November. Ahuja brings over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Most recently, he served as VP of investor relations at Agilent Technologies. Previously, he held several leadership roles at Agilent in operational finance, financial planning and analysis, enterprise audit and controls, and global financial operations.
Chelsea Lantz was appointed interim CFO of Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: NUS) a global beauty and wellness company, effective immediately. The appointment of Lantz comes after James Thomas stepped down as CFO to pursue an outside opportunity. Lantz joined Nu Skin in 2011 and has worked as corporate controller since 2023. Lantz came to Nu Skin from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP where she led financial audits and internal controls for public and private companies. Nu Skin’s board of directors has initiated a formal process to appoint a permanent CFO.
Big Deal
Companies are rapidly adopting AI but struggling to keep pace with the governance and security measures needed to manage its risks, according to findings from ISACA's 2026 AI Pulse Poll, released at RSA Conference 2026. The survey of more than 3,400 digital trust professionals found limited human oversight over AI decision-making, little disclosure around AI use, and widespread uncertainty around incident response — with more than half of respondents (56%) saying they don't know how quickly they could halt an AI system in the event of a security breach.
Another key finding is just 36% of respondents said humans approve most AI-generated actions before execution. ISACA is a global professional association focused on IT governance, information security, risk management, and auditing.
Going deeper
"Chevron’s CEO says oil prices are still too low—and the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure are not ‘fully priced in’" is a Fortune article by Jordan Blum.
“Oil and natural gas futures prices—despite trading 60% higher since before the Iran war—remain well below the physical supply shortages facing Asia and spreading around the world that will take many months to replenish, the chairman and CEO of Chevron said March 23,” Blum writes. Read more here.
Overheard
"This reality demands a fundamentally new approach to corporate security—one that treats geopolitical risk as an operational issue, not a compliance checkbox."
—Jeremy Bash, co-founder and managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, a Washington, D.C.-based advisory firm, writes in a Fortune opinion piece titled, "Companies are now on the front lines of war. They need to act like it."
