China won’t help the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz as requested by President Donald Trump, but it is probably welcoming the delay in Trump’s highly anticipated trip to Beijing as the U.S. risks getting bogged down in the Middle East, analysts say.
The latest developments are unfolding as Trump’s Iran war, in its third week, is faced with mounting pressure as oil has stopped moving through the strait and U.S. allies have refused to step up to secure the strait. That has produced concerns that China, the United States’ biggest geopolitical rival, could stand to benefit from a war that some say was ill-considered.
“President Trump’s request to delay his long-awaited summit with President Xi Jinping underscores how significantly he underestimated the fallout from Operation Epic Fury,” said Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group. “A show of U.S. force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of U.S. omnipotence: Unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry gave a nonanswer when asked if it would help reopen the strait but repeated its call for “parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from further impacting the global economy.”
Beijing, which had never officially confirmed Trump’s state visit, originally scheduled for March 31, has signaled willingness to work with the U.S. to reschedule the visit by stating that the two sides “remain in communication.” It even helped clarify that the postponement had nothing to do with Trump’s request for China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, Trump said the Chinese “were fine” with the delay and claimed “a very good working relationship with China.”
Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said, “I think the Iran request is now going to be less pressing for China to fulfill.” At the same time, Chinese diplomats have been engaging with countries in the Middle East, pledging a constructive role in easing tensions and restoring peace.
On Sunday, through the Red Cross and the Red Crescent, Beijing delivered to Iran an emergency humanitarian aid package of $200,000, earmarked for families of children and teachers killed in the bombing of the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building in Minab, Iran, with the Chinese ambassador to Iran condemning the school attack.
State visit delayed
A delay in the state visit is welcome by both the Trump administration and China, said Brett Fetterly, a managing principal in the China practice at The Asia Group, a Washington-based consultancy.
“I think the political environment is difficult for the United States to have the commander in chief travel abroad while managing military operations,” Fetterly said. “On the Chinese side, it doesn’t hurt to play for more time, to better understand what exactly President Trump might want.”
A recent trade talk in Paris between the two governments appears to have yielded little agreement and suggested difficulties remain in addressing structural differences in trade, technology and economic security, Fetterly said. “At the end of the day, both sides really needed some time to define what the range of deliverables are,” he said.
The U.S. business community has also expressed concern that preparations for the summit might not have been sufficient to produce substantive agreements.
Pivot away from Asia
Transfers of military assets from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East,, including a sizable portion of Marines deployed there as part of a rapid-response unit and an anti-missile defense system, have raised concerns that the U.S. could get distracted from its own stated priority to refocus on Asia.
“The longer this war continues, and the more forces that are shifted out of Asia, the more it will feed Asian allies’ concerns about U.S. distraction and resource constraints,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies U.S. strategy in Asia.
A delay in the state visit could also mean a delay in any arms sales to the self-governing island of Taiwan to deter attacks from Beijing, he said. China has vowed to take Taiwan by force if necessary, but the United States is obligated by its own law to give the island sufficient hardware to defend itself. The issue remains the thorniest in U.S.-China relations.
“I believe that China is happy to delay the visit and reap the benefits as the United States once again gets bogged down in the Middle East,” Cooper said.
And Beijing probably doesn’t need to do much, he added: “I think most Chinese experts and officials believe that the United States is undermining itself, so they just need to get out of the way.”
