It’s not an easy time to be on the hunt for work—applicants are up against “ghost jobs,” AI’s workforce takeover, and a sluggish hiring cycle. It’s forced some job-seekers to apply to thousands of postings, or perform elaborate stunts to get the attention of employers. Now, professionals’ belief in their ability to bounce back after a layoff has fallen to a worrying low.
The average perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current role was lost fell to 43.1% in December 2025, a 4.2% drop from the year before, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
It marks a record low since the surveys started tracking the data back in 2013, and the report notes that several demographics are driving rock-bottom employment expectations.
The country’s lowest earners making less than six figures, those without college diplomas, and perhaps surprisingly, baby boomers over the age of 60—on the edge of retirement—have the lowest confidence in the job hunt right now.
All workers are worried—even professionals with a steady job think they’re about to get laid off
“Americans don’t feel like the current job market is working for them,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at employment site Glassdoor, tells Fortune. “Workers on the lower end of the income spectrum or without a college degree are often more susceptible to the swings of the business cycle, so it’s natural for them to be more concerned about signs of an economic slowdown.”
Even professionals holding down a gig worry they’re on shaky ground. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year increased to 15.2%, up 1.4% from the year before, according to the report. Meanwhile, the perceived probability that an exit will be voluntary has decreased: The expected quit rate over the next 12 months whittled down to 17.5%.
“Generally, workers are anxious about job security as they see prominent layoffs in the headlines and hear from their laid-off friends who are having trouble getting back into work,” Zhao explains.
“Even workers who are currently employed feel stuck in their jobs as the current job market limits their ability to find a better job and leverage to get a raise or promotion internally.”
Why baby boomers are the most worried about the job market
Americans ages 60 and older have a perceived probability of only 33% in finding a new job if they have lost their current role—almost 10% lower than the national average. However, AI automation likely isn’t the culprit of their employment demise. The Glassdoor chief economist points to the fact that baby boomers are on the brink of retirement, and are being waved aside for opportunities based on their age.
Workers age 65 and older have seen labor force participation, employment, and unemployment all decline, but some of this may be the result of workers aging out of being able to work rather than a reflection of their financial situation, Zhao says.
Baby boomers are right to be concerned about their job prospects in the event of a layoff. Among U.S. citizens between the ages of 50 and 65, 14% were laid off once in the past 10 years, with 4% let go more than once, according to a 2025 Wall Street Journal analysis of a Boston College retirement study. And of those Gen Xers and baby boomers who experienced layoffs at least once, 24% were not able to find a new job.
Older generations also have to sift through job boards much longer to finally land a gig. While Gen Zers and millennials between the ages of 25 and 34 were typically unemployed for an average of 19 weeks, Gen Xers and baby boomers ages 55 to 64 were unemployed for 26 weeks, according to the WSJ analysis from last year. And even when older generations manage to score a job, 11% were forced to take a pay cut.
Because of ageism and the expectation they’ll retire soon, baby boomers are also being passed up for powerful promotions and bigger paychecks. About 22% of employees 40 and up say their workplaces skip over older workers for challenging assignments, and 16% say they have witnessed a pattern of being passed over for promotions in favor of younger staffers, according to a 2024 study from Resume Now.
Even more eyebrow-raising is the fact that they are not paid for their worth: Around 49% of older staffers said they make less money than their Gen Z and young millennial colleagues for doing the same job.
