S&P 500 futures rose 0.27% this morning, premarket, with indexes in Asia and Europe also broadly rising as traders savored strong economic growth in China, a new “pro-stimulus” government in Japan, and the prospect that President Trump may not be in a position to impose 100% tariffs on Beijing starting Nov. 1.
Investors are also increasingly convinced that the Fed’s next rate cut is locked in. Additionally, the notion that the U.S. Supreme Court may yet rule that Trump’s tariffs are illegal would be the icing on the equity cake, according to a note from JPMorgan over the weekend. “The impact on equity markets could be material as the tariff equity factor [which has weighed on some stocks] could see a sharp reversal” if the tariffs are struck down, wrote Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his team.
The Nikkei 225 was up 3.37% this morning after the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party formed a coalition, allowing Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime minister.
China also reported GDP growth of 4.8% in Q3, above analysts’ estimates. The CSI 300 rose 0.53%. The fact that the Chinese economy doesn’t seem to be wounded by Trump’s tariff threats—and the fact that the U.S remains dependent on China’s rare earth minerals—seems to have convinced investors that tariffs on China just aren’t going to happen.
“If we look at Polymarket, it’s currently pointing to just a 7% chance they come into effect by Nov. 1,” Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank said this morning.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.63% midmorning, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.36%.
In the U.S., investors are becoming more convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not put its interest-rate-cutting program on hold.
“On Friday, the BLS will publish the delayed CPI numbers for September. We are aligned with consensus in expecting a 0.3% MoM [month over month] core read—which should further endorse a 25 bp cut by the Fed next week,” ING’s Francesco Pesole told clients this morning.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen suggested that some investors think the Fed might cut by 50 basis points in December—although that seems unlikely.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were up 0.27% this morning. The index closed up 0.53% in its last session.
- The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.63% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.36% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 3.37%.
- China’s CSI 300 was up 0.53%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.76%.
- India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.47% before the end of the session.
- Bitcoin was up to $111.1K.
