A TransUnion study suggest that many borrowers with federal student loans could see their accounts cross 270 days past due this July, putting them in default. That would open up the possibility of garnishment, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Just last month, the estimated number was 1.2 million.

It could be much worse by the end of summer, also. TransUnion, the Journal reports, estimates another 1 million borrowers could default by August, followed by another 2 million in September. (Not all of those people will reach that state, as some are in the process of working out deals with their lenders.)

The Education Department, which began debt collection on defaulted loans last month, has warned that wage garnishment on loans in default will begin once more this summer after a five-year pause. That could automatically deduct 15% of the paychecks of people who have overdue student loans. Federal officials have already warned people who have nor or are unable to make payments that, starting this month, they could see their tax refunds and any federal benefits withheld.

Prior to this, the government has not collected on defaulted loans since March 2020. In that time, borrowers have seen policy changes, inaccurate payment information, and unfulfilled promises of loan forgiveness. Many are also seeing their payments spike and their credit scores crater. 

The Federal Reserve has said that more than 9 million borrowers “will face significant drops in credit score once delinquencies appear on credit reports in the first half of 2025.”