- The U.S. air strikes on Iran’s top nuclear facilities are not the start of a prolonged campaign, according to the Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer. Instead, they look more like a dramatic attack that could represent the peak, he said, comparing it to brief, catchy videos on TikTok. Separately, a top Wall Street analyst said markets will assume the worst is now over.
With President Donald Trump eager to avoid getting mired in a drawn-out conflict with Iran, the U.S. air strikes on the regime’s nuclear sites could represent the peak of military involvement, according to Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group.
In a video posted on Sunday, the geopolitical expert drew a distinction between prolonged wars that become fodder for multi-episode documentaries versus attacks that resemble brief, catchy videos on TikTok.
“At this moment, this is not the Americans beginning a large-scale, grinding, drag-out, Ken Burns–style war, which would be strongly opposed by most Americans and a lot in Trump’s own base,” Bremmer said. “But rather the sort of very, very spectacular—couple of major strikes and done—TikTok-style war, which Trump’s base can certainly get behind.”
He pointed out that Trump made a similarly dramatic move during his first term that didn’t lead to a major escalation. In January 2020, he ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander, in response to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Saudi oil facilities.
Iran’s retaliation was a symbolic attack against U.S. bases that was not meant to cause a lot of damage, Bremmer said, adding that Trump expects a similar response this time.
“If it’s done by Iranian proxies, and it doesn’t cause a lot of damage—specifically if it doesn’t lead to American servicemen and women getting killed in large numbers—it is plausible that this is kind of the peak of what the United States does,” Bremmer said. “And then it’s not the U.S. and ongoing war. Rather it’s a big win. It’s not peace, but it’s a big win for Trump. And it’s an even bigger win for the Israeli prime minister.”
Of course, the eventual U.S. military involvement depends on how severe Iran’s next move is. While its military capabilities have been severely degraded, Tehran still has the capacity to launch cyber and terror attacks as well as disrupt oil markets.
But Bremmer doesn’t expect Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for the global energy trade, given that the country’s export-oriented oil infrastructure hasn’t been targeted by Israeli or U.S. missiles. Earlier Israeli attacks hit Iranian energy infrastructure that serves domestic consumers.
Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives had a bullish take for Wall Street in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran.
“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone, and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” he posted on X. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle, but the market will view the worst is now in the rearview mirror. Expect stocks up.”