Trump’s tariffs mean brands will lose customer loyalty—and winning it back is incredibly hard

Since we’re both global marketers and, more importantly, working moms, we’ve seen what it takes to earn and keep customer trust. Our trust. It’s not easy—and it’s about to get even harder.

Pricing is never just about numbers; it’s about perception, psychology, and trust. After President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day,” trust is in short supply.

The sweeping new tariffs are Trump’s promise to free the U.S. from foreign dependence. In reality, they’ll trap American consumers at the checkout line—where higher prices will force them to make tough choices, exposing which brands earn loyalty and which are simply coasting on familiarity. It’s a tax on brand loyalty.

The loyalty paradox

For decades, brands have cultivated customer devotion not just by selling products, but by standing for something. Millions of consumers proudly wear their favorite sneaker brand, post their morning coffee ritual, or swear by their go-to skincare line. Loyalty, we say, is everything. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Brand loyalty is becoming a luxury—one only the affluent can afford.

The United States has traditionally enjoyed low administrative hurdles with transparent rules and predictable legal systems. This has made America a dependable place to do business. China, on the other hand, is known for its lack of transparency, which causes issues for foreign companies and leads many brands to pull out. Changing the rules of the game abruptly decreases transparency. Neither businesses nor consumers appreciate uncertainty.

Faced with higher costs on everything from fashion to food, many Americans will be forced to abandon the brands they’ve loved for years—not because they want to, but because they have to. The average American consumer is about to experience price hikes across almost everything they buy, all at the same time.

When Katherine worked in global luxury, she planned for price changes. At Louis Vuitton, for example, pricing strategy was an art form, adjusted based on currency fluctuations, demand, and competitive value. Even in luxury, there are limits: Push prices too high, and even the most loyal customers hesitate. But they always kept their promises—communicating price changes ahead of time and lowering prices when the currency was strong.    

In many industries, such as software, people can purchase from anywhere online via the company website. When Nataly worked at HubSpot, her team reviewed currency fluctuations quarterly to continually reassess pricing in each local currency, as this affected profit margins and financial results.

Now, mass-market brands are being forced into the same game—but with a riskier bet: Will everyday consumers stick around when they can no longer justify the cost? When loyalty becomes unaffordable, people will make tough choices.

The ripple effects beyond pricing

Tariffs are the first part of a global brand strategy problem. Brands that once differentiated on values—quality, transparency, sustainability—now face a stark choice: absorb the costs or pass them along. Pass along the cost, and loyal customers feel betrayed. Absorb it, and shareholders may revolt. But one thing is certain: pricing isn’t just about margins. It’s a trust signal.

Here’s how brands can navigate the turbulence:

Segment your pricing strategy

Not all products need to absorb or pass along costs equally. Luxury brands understand this—entry-level products maintain accessibility while exclusive items shoulder price increases. Consider which products are most integral to customer acquisition and loyalty and protect those price points at the expense of maintaining margin. For example, when facing currency fluctuations in Japan, Gucci maintained prices on iconic products while strategically adjusting others, preserving brand trust and perceived value.

Strengthen your domestic value proposition

Brands with U.S. manufacturing can turn a potential negative into a positioning advantage by emphasizing quality, control, and American craftsmanship. This isn’t about waving a flag—it’s about demonstrating how local production benefits customers through quality, speed, or sustainability. Consumers can distinguish between opportunistic patriotism and genuine commitment.

Rethink your value chain

While reshoring entire operations isn’t feasible overnight, consider what elements could benefit from domestic investment. This might include final assembly, quality control, or specialized components. Nike has demonstrated this hybrid approach effectively, maintaining global sourcing while investing in innovation centers and customization capabilities in key markets.

Invest in relationship marketing

When switching costs increase due to higher prices, customer retention becomes even more valuable. Brands that invest in relationship-building during this period through personalized experiences, loyalty programs, and superior customer service may emerge stronger.

Remember that price is just one component of value. Brands with strong foundational trust can offset price sensitivity by building emotional connection through services and community. 

Practice transparent communication

If price increases are inevitable, transparency about why and how they’re implemented can minimize damage. Brands that clearly communicate the factors affecting pricing decisions—and show that they’re absorbing some costs themselves—maintain credibility even when delivering unwelcome news.

The long view: Trust as currency

As we explore in our upcoming book Brand Global, Adapt Local, trust is the real currency of global brands. In a volatile world, the ability to maintain consumer trust—across borders, cultures, and economic shocks—is what separates enduring brands from those that fade.

We’ve seen this dynamic globally. In markets facing currency fluctuations or tariff shocks, companies that protect the brand promise emerge stronger. Those that don’t? They might gain short-term market share but likely lose long-term loyalty.

Tariffs don’t just disrupt supply chains. They disrupt relationships. They introduce a new kind of class divide in consumer culture: those who can afford to stay loyal, and those who are forced to switch. And for brands, that’s the real danger. Once loyalty is lost, it’s incredibly hard to win back.

This is a test not just of brand elasticity, but of brand values. Will companies stay true to the customers who built them—or pivot to protect profit at all costs? The answer will determine not just second-quarter earnings, but brand equity over time.

In an inflationary world where everything gets more expensive, trust is the one thing consumers shouldn’t have to pay more for. But unless brands act strategically now, loyalty may soon become just another premium product—reserved for those with money to spare.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.